NBA Scouts Are Not Impressed With J.R. Reid as a Role Player

From the way he started out two years ago, J.R. Reid was on course to be Karl Malone by now. Big, burly, completely beastly inside. Opponents made sure the health insurance policy was in order before taking a charging foul from him.

During the last half of his freshman year and the first half of his sophomore year, no college basketball player in the country played with as much power, as much ferocity as J.R. Reid of North Carolina. As a freshman, 14.7 points per game; as a sophomore 18 points per game. Pretty good hands, could hit anything from inside the lane. Decent post-up game. Rick Mahorn without the bluster.

So what happened to Reid, anyway? Now, as a junior who has played on the U.S. Olympic team, Reid isn’t among the ACC’s leading scorers or rebounders. He plays about 27 minutes a game and isn’t even a cinch to start every game in Dean Smith’s scheme of things.

Midway through his sophomore season, it looked like a healthy Reid would be a lock to be one of the top three players selected in the NBA draft if he left school early. Now, after a stress fracture in a foot (which caused him to miss nine games) and a reduced role in North Carolina’s offense, Reid’s stock is down, for sure.

In 33 minutes Sunday at Maryland, Reid scored 17 points and had nine rebounds, which is certainly reason for him and his team to be happy. But he was no longer The Man in North Carolina’s offense, not even against a Maryland team whose inside defense is soft as Charmin. In the previous four games, he attempted a total of only 25 shots.

Tony Massenburg, the Maryland center-forward, said, “His game is banging . . . pushing guys around. But I don’t think they look to him as much as they used to, which makes it easier to play him.”

Massenburg was talking about Reid, of course, the same guy Dean Smith told last year to think about turning pro, since the NBA scouts said he would have been one of the first three players taken in the college draft.

Many of the scouts aren’t saying that anymore. Todd Quinter of the Phoenix Suns said, “If J.R. goes, he’ll be in the top three, at least, I believe.”

I don’t believe, and neither do some of Quinter’s colleagues. During the NBA’s all-star weekend, several scouts said Reid already has slipped to the bottom of the lottery -- seventh, eighth or ninth -- in their minds.

Just off the top of my head, I’d take Dwayne Schintzius (whom I’m betting will leave after his junior season), Stacey King, Sean Elliott, Glen Rice, Danny Ferry and Pervis Ellison ahead of Reid (and maybe Mookie Blaylock) if the draft were held today.

So what does Reid do now? Is he happy being just another guy in a system, albeit a highly successful and productive one? Should he leave after this season while his stock is still relatively high, or return for his senior year when it could soar, or drop even further if he doesn’t have a blockbuster season?

“If the money’s right, if the situation’s right, I might leave,” Reid said.

On the same subject, Smith said, “His mom and dad say he’s definitely staying. ... But I haven’t begun to start checking things out.”

By that, Smith means he hasn’t started to talk to his buddies in the NBA to find out whether Reid still will be a top-three pick. Smith has an unwritten rule that if one of his players is almost sure to go in the top three, he advises the player to turn pro. Bob McAdoo, James Worthy and Michael Jordan took Smith’s advice.

Certainly, Reid is not the polished player any of those three were at comparable stages of their careers. In fact, the question being asked about Reid is, Has he gotten any better since his freshman season?

Depending on whether stats mean anything to you, Reid’s career-high in scoring (31 points, twice) came his freshman year, as did his career high in rebounds (15) and assists (six).

Reid points out, probably quite correctly, that the stats aren’t worth a darn unless you consider one thing. “I shot a lot more,” he said. “My freshman year, I happened to be playing with Kenny Smith and Joe Wolf. That meant I always had a lesser defender on me, for one thing.”

Dean Smith said Reid’s reduced shooting isn’t mandated. “I’d love for him to shoot 20 times a game,” he said, “if there was some magic way for him to get the ball. If that happens, he’s got my blessing. J.R.’s improved a great deal. But he can’t possibly get the same shots with this team that he got with that team.”

Maybe the players who came into the league with Reid began to catch up (somewhat) physically. Maybe coaches and players, having seen him twice a year at least, figured out how to counteract some of what made him so seemingly unstoppable as a frosh-soph.

Reid even admitted, “It’s taken a lot of adjustments” to go from shooting whenever the mood hit him to doing all the things Smith is asking of him now in the more balanced approach the Tar Heels seem to prefer this season. North Carolina didn’t reach the Final Four going inside to Reid as often as possible, so who’s to fault Smith for trying something else?

Even so, it’s a strange sight to see Reid sitting on the bench in the second half with his team ahead by only five points, unable to hit anything other than layups against a team without much interior defense.

Reid says he’s not frustrated now. But another season and a half of being a role player, having been The Man for the better part of two years, could drive him and Smith crazy.

Next year this time, I bet you’ll see Reid in the big league, where zone is a dirty word, and where a man with a wide, powerful body is invaluable. Then we’ll see whether J.R. Reid has the right stuff.