L.A. Wins Settlement of Suit on Census Method

The city of Los Angeles and several other large metropolitan areas Monday won an important legal victory in a long struggle to compel the U.S. Census Bureau to change the way it tallies minority groups, homeless people, immigrants, illegal aliens and other mainly poor people who are often missed by census takers.

In a settlement Monday of a lawsuit brought by Los Angeles, the state of California, New York City, Chicago and Dade County, Fla., the Census Bureau agreed to give new weight to a controversial counting technique designed especially for urban neighborhoods, where the bureau’s traditional methods of enumeration have fallen short.

Costly Undercounting

The settlement opens the door for the upward revision of urban population totals based on the alternative counting technique.

Officials from urban areas have argued that the undercounting of inner city inhabitants has led to financial and political inequities, depriving cities of their fair share of state and federal money as well as seats in Congress and state legislatures. Los Angeles city officials had projected a loss of $110 million over the next decade in funds that are based on population unless the census methodology was changed.

Los Angeles City Atty. James K. Hahn called the settlement a “major victory” for large cities.

“Having an accurate population count is vital when it comes to us getting our fair share of federal funds allocated on the basis of population and drawing boundaries in reapportionment,” Hahn said. He added that the use of the additional survey is of “critical importance to Los Angeles because chronically undercounted segments of society tend to be the invisible population of our inner city.”

Under terms of the settlement, the 1990 Census will proceed along two tracks. The traditional head count will be made and a “post-enumeration survey”--the new method--will also be done. If discrepancies between the two approaches develop, as expected, the secretary of commerce will decide to what extent, if any, the initial head count will be adjusted to reflect results of the survey. Advising the secretary will be a panel of experts chosen by both sides in the lawsuit.

In agreeing to the settlement, those who brought suit put their faith in the panel of experts, as yet unchosen, counting on them to endorse the conclusions of the survey in such a definitive way that the secretary of Commerce will have no choice but to follow their advice.

Creation of the panel was a key ingredient in the settlement and disagreements over the panel’s composition reportedly was a major sticking point. With hours left before the case was scheduled to go to trial Monday, negotiators agreed that the panel would consist of eight people, four picked by each side in the case.

In the lawsuit, city officials argued that the Census Bureau’s head count, which in most cases requires people to reply to written questionnaires mailed to their homes, fails to include millions of people who have no fixed addresses, who are not interested in being counted, who are illiterate or who cannot communicate in English. The post-enumeration survey will involve person-to-person interviews.

Officials in Los Angeles estimated that the 1980 Census undercounted blacks by 9.1%, Latinos by 9.8% and Asian-Americans by 7.3%. The Census Bureau acknowledged missing an average of 4.5% of the population of large cities, compared to only 0.5% for other parts of the country. According to the bureau’s figures, it missed 6.2% of the nation’s black population in the 1980 Census.

A senior official in the Department of Commerce, which administers the Census Bureau, said Monday that the settlement, in part, reflects a changed view of the issue. Two years ago, the Reagan Administration ordered the Census Bureau not to alter the way the census would be conducted in 1990. That order halted testing of the proposed post-enumeration survey favored by cities and sparked the lawsuit.

“The decision-making process of a couple of years ago was less than optimal. There were some problems,” said the Commerce Department official, who asked not to be identified. At the same time, the official insisted that the 1987 order banning use of the post-enumeration survey was not politically motivated, as argued by those bringing suit.

Proponents of the survey viewed the decision as an attempt by a combatively conservative Reagan Administration to thwart Democratic political gains in the nation’s big cities.

Both sides in the lawsuit noted Monday that the settlement does not necessarily mean the threat of litigation is past. Wendell L. Willkie II, the Commerce Department’s general counsel, and others involved in the case pointed out that among demographers at the Census Bureau and elsewhere, doubts have been raised about the reliability of the survey.

“The survey does not have the certitude of a head count. It is subject to a tremendous amount of second-guessing and subjectivity,” one Commerce Department official said.

The survey, a series of interviews, will function as a follow-up to the census. Under terms of the settlement, the survey will canvass 150,000 people, reflecting the American society as a whole. Survey targets will include city neighborhoods where the census is considered most likely to miss people.

Results of the initial head count and the canvass will then be compared; the percentage difference between the two counts will be projected to include other similar areas and, ultimately, provide the basis for adjusting the nationwide census.

Even though the settlement does not require the secretary of commerce to automatically adjust the census numbers to reflect the survey, Los Angeles City Atty. Hahn said he views the outcome of the case as a victory.

“Whatever (the secretary) chooses to do, we are going to have the data. We are going to know. And if he doesn’t follow recommendations to adjust, he is going to have to justify his decision. Everything will have to be on the record.”

With the settlement out of the way, Los Angeles faces another battle over the way urban populations are to be treated. Last week, the U.S. Senate voted not to include illegal aliens when counting residents for reapportionment purposes. The Senate also voted to deny illegal aliens direct access to federal benefits. To become law, both measures must be approved by the House.