ANALYSIS : TOUR DE FRANCE : Fignon Breaks Away, Takes Lead : . . . This Race Could Come Down to Sunday’s Final Stage

Analyzing the final four stages of the 76th Tour de France, Felix Magowan, publisher of the VeloNews of Boulder, Colo., said Wednesday he expects no changes in the order of the leaders and only slight variations in the time differentials over the next three days.

Through Wednesday’s 17th stage, Laurent Fignon of France has a 26-second lead over Greg LeMond of Minneapolis and a 1-minute 55-second lead over Pedro Delgado of Spain.

If Magowan is correct, the champion will be determined during Sunday’s final stage, a 15.2-mile individual time trial between the Palace of Versailles and Gardens of Tuileries in Paris. Not since Belgium’s Herman Van Springel was overtaken by the Netherlands’ Jan Janssen in 1968 has the tour leader lost the yellow jersey on the final day.

Magowan’s analysis of the final four stages:

Thursday, Bourg-d’Oisans to Villard-de-Lans Cote 2,000, 56.9 miles: Over the steep, narrow Cote de Laffrey hill and the long, winding Cote de Saint Nizier du-Moucherotte pass in the Alps, Fignon, LeMond and Delgado probably will ride in a pack. If anyone makes a move, it probably will be on the final climb of the day, and also the easiest, from 970 meters at Les Geymonds to 1,150 meters at Villard-de-Lans Cote.

Friday, Villard-de-Lans to Aix-les-Bains, 77.1 miles: A more difficult stage than the day before because of its length and the steepness of its hills, particularly the climb from 550 meters at Cote de l’Aiguille de Quaix to 1,320 meters at Col de Porte, where the three leaders may separate. But they likely will regroup on the descent from the Alps, a 21-mile downhill ride to Aix-les-Bains.

Saturday, Aix-les-Bains to L’Isle d’Abeau, 73.3 miles: With the cyclists back on level ground, only inclement weather could significantly affect the standings. The forecast is for sunshine and temperatures in the high 70s or low 80s. This stage will hardly be more interesting than the 310-mile train ride that the cyclists will take at the end of the day to Versailles.

Sunday, Versailles to Paris, 15.2 miles: Unless Delgado makes a strong move during the final two days in the Alps, the race should be between Fignon and LeMond. In individual time trials, the cyclists race alone and against the clock. This is the fourth one since the tour began on July 1. In the previous three, LeMond proved superior to Fignon. He is capable of making up one second for every kilometer on Fignon. Maybe more. This time trial covers 24.5 kilometers.

“It’s important that Greg not lose any more time,” Magowan said. “But if the standings stay the way they are until Sunday, he should take the yellow jersey. It would be very challenging, but I think he would do it.”