COMMENTARY : In Big West, 2 Places Are Easy to Predict

Nevada Las Vegas will finish first and San Jose State will finish last, but you didn’t need to read that here.

The big test in the Big West is trying to place everyone else. In a basketball conference that features what might be the best and worst Division I teams in the country, where, exactly, do the Titans, Anteaters and Aggies of the world fit in?

We have some ideas about that too.

Cal State Fullerton will finish second because Cedric Ceballos is the best player at a Big West school not located within walking distance of a live animal act; because Mark (The Thrill) Hill and his jumpshot are back; because two other starters return, and because Fullerton finally has a program that’s committed to its coach. And vice versa.

Cal State Long Beach will finish third because Joe Harrington coaches the 49ers and a lot of people think Harrington is a coaching genius. Last year’s 13-15 record didn’t look too smart, but the Long Beach injury and ineligibility wave would have given anyone sensory overload. Last year’s team also didn’t have Frankie Edwards and Kevin Williams, a pair of 6-8 bookends, nor former Arizona junior college player of the year Kevin Cutler, a kind of marked-down version of Sean Elliott.

UC Santa Barbara will finish fourth because the Gauchos return four starters from a team that went 21-9 last season. The Gauchos won’t finish any higher because forward Mike Doyle (16.2 points a game) dropped out of school and because Coach Jerry Pimm insists on toying with the idea of switching all-conference off-guard Carrick DeHart to the point. Jerry, if it ain’t broke . . .

UC Irvine will finish fifth, which will surprise many, because the Anteaters went 12-17 last season and still don’t play a zot of defense. But Irvine has some gorgeous outside shooting (Rod Palmer, Jeff Herdman, Justin Anderson) to go with its gorged man in the middle (Ricky Butler) and Coach Bill Mulligan is even thinking about trying out the zone this year. Go with that thought, Bill.

New Mexico State will finish sixth because it lost three starters and it’s tough to recruit in Las Cruces, no matter what Coach Neil McCarthy says. “That oasis in the desert,” McCarthy calls it. “No smog, nothing but sun, really great. We’re like Phoenix was 20 years ago, they tell me. It’s a well-kept secret. Everybody wants to go there.” Unless they happen to play basketball.

Fresno State will finish seventh because there’s a new trend in basketball--it’s called offense--and news travels slowly in Fresno.

Utah State will finish eighth because Reid Newey has gone from starting guard to graduate assistant and because the new talent is remarkable only in that it hails from such exotic spots as Chicago, Phoenix, La Mirada and Hammond, La. “We’re kind of a heterogeneous group,” assistant coach Jim Boatwright says. “Which is tougher at Utah State than most people think.”

The University of the Pacific will finish ninth because no one will finish below San Jose State, the Stan Morrison reclamation project. Last year, the Spartans went 0-12 after nine players walked out in protest against former Coach Bill Berry, leaving Morrison to clean up the mess and, essentially, build a Division I program from ground zero. And he thought coaching Tommy Lewis was a challenge.

Some other things will happen too.

UNLV’s Larry Johnson, juco superman, will augment Stacey Augmon so well, he’ll supplant his teammate as Big West player of the year.

Fullerton Coach John Sneed’s observation that Jerry Tarkanian “could divide his team into two groups and still be competitive” will go ignored because the last thing this world needs is two UNLVs.

The Runnin’ Rebels will run as far as the NCAA lets them, which gives the rest of the Big West hope. The gumshoes continue to tromp up and down The Strip and the sanctions, like an Augmon 18-footer, could fall at any instant.

Mulligan will abandon the zone. And bring it back. And abandon the zone. And bring it back.

Fullerton’s Tom Parada, a 5-6, 130-pound freshman guard, will become an Orange County cult hero, the Red Auerbach cigar of the Big West. When Parada plays, one way or another, you’ll know the game is in the fridge.

New Mexico State’s Rick Fluckey will be the most carefully typed name in the conference.

San Jose at UNLV on Feb. 5 will be college basketball’s answer to SMU at Notre Dame. Will Tark have his players run out of bounds?

Fullerton will get an NCAA bid. Remember Greg Bunch, Bobby Dye and the spirit of ‘78?

Irvine’s Butler and Anderson will get an earful. Remember, Mulligan has promised to mellow before.

Long Beach and Santa Barbara will go NITpicking.

UNLV will not go all the way. Tark is paying for his sins in this lifetime and the Final Four tournament remains his personal purgatory. Somewhere, another Seton Hall lurks.