For the Early Line on Oscar: Listen to the Buzz : Academy Award watchers say this year’s race is so wide open that even an animated film is a serious contender

The Early Buzz is the primordial ooze of the annual Academy Awards. It is the myth-shrouded swamp of opinion from which eventually emerge--in various shapes, forms and moods--the Oscar nominees, highest species in American pop culture.

The Buzz is at first muffled, indiscernible, filled with hot air. Then it begins to sharpen and define itself, pick up tempo, repeat refrains and build into a steady drone until, with an ear turned downwind, you can actually hear the names and titles of the serious contenders.

“Born on the Fourth of July” . . . “Field of Dreams” . . . “Crimes and Misdemeanors” . . . Tom Cruise . . . Morgan Freeman . . . Michelle Pfeiffer . . . Oliver Stone. . . .

Don’t confuse the Early Buzz with the Early Hype. Hype would have you believe “Batman” is a candidate for best picture, or that Burt Reynolds is somehow in contention for best actor. Hype takes the form of fancy Oscar campaigns based on hope, self-delusion and contractual obligations. Buzz is real, the inside skinny from knowledgeable Oscar observers, many of whom are actually among the 4,000-plus voting members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences.

In coming weeks, the Hype will attempt to drown out the Buzz and sneak something weird into the final mix--like a best director nomination for Eddie Murphy or a best actress nomination for Roseanne Barr. Critics groups will try too. It was this time last year that the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. voted the six-hour, two-part theatrical miniseries “Little Dorrit”--not heard from since--best picture. And there are those members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., whose Golden Globe nominations are often funnier than an episode of “Golden Girls.”

This analysis is being written before the critics and publicists weigh in with their opposing agendas to cloud the picture. It is based on primary, unprocessed word-of-mouth, the natterings of those in the know. As such, you can count on it.

Two months ago, the advanced wisdom of inveterate Oscar watchers was that Phil Alden Robinson’s “Field of Dreams,” a light baseball fantasy released last spring to rave reviews and a box-office run that extended all the way through summer, would be forgotten among the heavy hitters released near the end of the year. Spike Lee’s “Do the Right Thing” and Rob Reiner’s “When Harry Met Sally,” both released during the summer, were written off for the same reason.

But a couple of those presumed year-end heavyweights--Jack Nicholson’s “Two Jakes” and Martin Ritt’s “Stanley and Iris”--were pushed into next year, while several of the others--Herbert Ross’ “Steel Magnolias,” Milos Forman’s “Valmont” and Roland Joffe’s “Fat Man and Little Boy”--have been met mostly with the cool blasts of Arctic indifference from critics. The Buzz is now confused, mumbling about this being the most wide-open race in years, saying crazy things like this could be the first year that an animated film (“The Little Mermaid”) or a documentary (“Roger and Me”) is nominated for best picture. As for “Field of Dreams,” the Buzz says it’s gone from long shot to likely nominee and that Reiner’s and Lee’s films may make it, too.

It is an odd year at the top. Oliver Stone’s “Born on the Fourth of July,” which opens Wednesday, may be the only sure nominee of the more than 300 movies eligible for best picture. The film, based on the autobiography of disabled Vietnam veteran Ron Kovic, has the intellectual credentials Academy voters like to see. It is heavily political, with a liberal bent, based on actual events and filled with social passion. It will also claw its way off the entertainment pages onto Op-Ed where political pundits will further validate its importance. Finally, Stone’s gold card has been pre-approved; he won Academy Awards for “Midnight Express” (best adapted screenplay) and “Platoon” (best direction).

The other four spots on the best picture ballot are likely to come from the following list: Crimes and Misdemeanors. Woody Allen’s musings on the epistemological relativity of good and evil is his funniest serious movie since “Hannah and Her Sisters,” and though the red-headed strange one did his best to hide the movie from his fans (we have to search the fine print in the ads to find his name), it is a movie of major importance. Its greatest strength: Woody is always taken seriously by the Academy voters. Greatest weakness: His studied indifference to the Oscar process may cost him votes.

When Harry Met Sally .... This is not a movie of major importance, despite Rob Reiner’s obvious emulation of Woody’s style. But people who saw it--a greater number than those for any Woody Allen movie--sure had a great time. Strength: Contains the year’s most talked about scene (Meg Ryan’s faked orgasm in Katz Deli.) Weakness: Released too soon.

Field of Dreams. This fantasy about a farmer who turns his cornfield into a baseball diamond and then plays fungo with the ghosts who show up in their flannels is, like “It’s a Wonderful Life,” one of those rare instances of movie magic. If they will nominate it, it will win. Strength: Baseball is hot. Weakness: Baseball season’s over.

Do the Right Thing. Nobody does the right thing in this race relations drama, including writer-director Spike Lee, who first told the press the film endorses violence as racial self-defense, then blamed the media for stirring up white hysteria. But it is a solid drama with great performances and deep social implications. Strength: Passionate social tone. Weakness: Released in the summer.

The Little Mermaid. Without question the best-reviewed film of 1989. Pauline Kael, almost alone, did not like it, but look what kind of a year she had: She called “Casualties of War” a life-changing experience. With “Mermaid,” Disney Studios not only revived memories of Walt’s halcyon days but proved that animated films aren’t just for kids. Strength: Simple enough for tots, hip enough for adults. Weakness: No animated film has ever been nominated for best picture. (Note to voters: Yes, it’s eligible.)

The War of the Roses. The nastiest bit of comedy since “Prizzi’s Honor” sends the perfect marriage straight to hell, where so many of them go. The year’s most polarizing film--you don’t have to have been through a bitter divorce to enjoy its wickedness, but it helps--will divide Academy voters, too. Strength: Most Academy voters have been through bitter divorces. Weakness: Some people just don’t get it.

And we can’t rule out: “Roger and Me,” (yes, it’s a documentary, but it’s also screamingly funny entertainment), “Enemies, A Love Story” (critics love it, but don’t forget your No-Doze), “Steel Magnolias” (moves fast, but it’s all feet), “Dead Poets Society” (a literary and commercial hit released in the summer), “Triumph of the Spirit” (strong stuff about the Holocaust; it was rejected by all the majors), and “sex, lies and videotape” (art-house label makes it a long shot).

The strongest competition this year seems to be in the best actor category. Tom Cruise, having given an earnestly credible performance in last year’s “Rain Man,” is primed for a nomination this year for “Born on the Fourth of July.”

Since actors nominate actors, Daniel Day-Lewis would also seem certain of a spot in the ballot for his wrenching physical portrayal of disabled Irish painter Christy Brown in “My Left Foot.”

Busy Morgan Freeman appeared in four movies in 1989, and is a legitimate best actor contender for two of them--”Lean on Me” and “Driving Miss Daisy.” Insiders say he’ll get the nod for the current “Miss Daisy.”

Jack Lemmon is always a sentimental favorite with voters, and though the film got mixed reviews, his work as the up-and-down octogenarian in “Dad” was both engaging and bold.

Michael Douglas, the Oscar winner for “Wall Street” two years ago, gives an even better performance in a more demanding and only slightly less evil role in “The War of the Roses.”

Not since Jerry Lewis gave up movies to become a telethoner has a star gone as far over the top as Jack Nicholson did playing the Joker in “Batman.” But with Nicholson, the most popular ham of his generation, the sky’s the limit.

Gregory Peck. We’ll never know what Burt Lancaster would have done with the role of Ambrose Bierce in “Old Gringo,” but the well-liked Peck, who stepped in when insurance agents vetoed heart-troubled Burt, carried off some fine sentimental moments in an otherwise forgettable movie.

Al Pacino returned to form as the temperamental morally ambivalent New York cop in “Sea of Love,” and though the work was no stretch for him, he could get a nomination as Comeback Player of the Year.

And we can’t rule out: Kenneth Branagh, the most heralded Shakespearean since Olivier, for “Henry V”; Ron Silver, if Paul Mazursky’s “Enemies, A Love Story” is embraced as warmly by Academy members as it has been by critics; Kevin Costner, if there is a sweep for “Field of Dreams”; Denzel Washington, if enough people see “Glory”; and Robin Williams for “Dead Poets Society,” even though it’s a supporting role.

It is fitting that the worst decade ever for strong women’s roles ends with a year that barely featured five leading actresses. Pauline Collins provocatively recreated her stage role in “Shirley Valentine,” but few other actresses had opportunities to dominate a film.

Jessica Tandy has been making movies since 1932, so when she got the role of her life--as the Southern dowager in “Driving Miss Daisy”--she was ready for it. She and Morgan Freeman, who plays her chauffeur and companion, are shoo-ins.

Michelle Pfeiffer made love to a piano while singing “Making Whoopie” in “The Fabulous Baker Boys” and all but obliterated the celebrated teaming of actor-brothers Jeff and Beau Bridges.

Kathleen Turner has been overlooked for her best work (in “Romancing the Stone” and “Crimes of Passion”) and over-rewarded for her most mundane (in “Peggy Sue Got Married”). As the combat-ready plaintiff in “The War of the Roses,” she gives a career performance that her peers are bound to notice.

Meryl Streep proved to be an effective comedian in a movie that has been generally dismissed and people tend to vote for her out of instinct.

And we can’t rule out: Meg Ryan, for “When Harry Met Sally”; few people have seen Jessica Lange in “Music Box,” which opens Christmas Day, but she’s always a contender; Sally Field’s spell over voters may earn her another nomination for “Steel Magnolias”; and, although a longshot, many people think there may be enough young members in the actors branch to slip “sex, lies and videotape’s” Andie MacDowell into the final five.

The supporting actor categories tend to crystalize later than those for the leads, but the most frequently mentioned names among supporting actress contenders right now are Julia Roberts (“Steel Magnolias”), Anjelica Huston and Lena Olin (“Enemies, A Love Story”), Carrie Fisher (“When Harry Met Sally”), Diane Wiest (“Parenthood”), Laura San Giacomo (“sex, lies and videotape”) and Lolita Davidovich (“Blaze”).

For supporting actor, the Buzz has Martin Landau as a shoo-in for “Crimes and Misdemeanors,” and a lot of support for Danny Aiello (“Do the Right Thing”), John Goodman (“Always”), Jason Robards (“Parenthood”), Robert Loggia (“Triumph of the Spirit”), Ray McAnally (“My Left Foot”), and James Earl Jones (“Field of Dreams”).