BASEBALL PREVIEW NL EAST : Mets Should Capture Pennant if All Goes Well and Cubs Don’t

There are lots of reasons why the New York Mets should win the National League East in 1990. There were lots of reasons last year, too.

But the Mets self-destructed throughout much of 1989 and finished six games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs.

Unless St. Louis’ pitching gets healthy fast, the Mets and Cubs are headed for another summer showdown.

New York Mets

The Mets didn’t pitch the way they were supposed to last season. They didn’t hit much either. By the end of the season, the clubhouse was torn by petty jealousies and troubling indifference. Manager Davey Johnson survived, but coaches Bill Robinson and Sam Perlozzo were dismissed by General Manager Frank Cashen.

The abbreviated spring training schedule would seem to benefit the Mets more than most clubs because of their pitching depth. During the first three or four weeks of the season, pitchers will go four or five innings. The Mets have six starters--Dwight Gooden, Frank Viola, David Cone, Sid Fernandez, Ron Darling and Bob Ojeda.

Gooden is coming off of a torn shoulder muscle and hasn’t started a game since last July. “Dwight is ahead of schedule and may be ready by opening day,” Johnson said.

Johnson can also go to newcomers John Franco and Alejandro Pena.

After a month in alcohol rehabilitation, Darryl Strawberry says he has changed his outlook on life. Strawberry had his worst season as a Met in 1989, hitting .225 with 29 homers and 77 RBIs. “I’m playing for the Mets and Darryl Strawberry,” he said. “I can’t play for what others think I should do.”

A new attitude seems to be quite important to the Mets’ success this season.

Chicago Cubs

Can the Cubs do it again? The last time Chicago repeated as champions was 1906-1908.

Among other things, the skeptics wonder if outfielders Jerome Walton (.293) and Dwight Smith (.324) can repeat their sensational rookie seasons. Smith’s average was the highest by a Cubs rookie since Hack Miller hit .352 in 1922.

The team ERA of 3.43 was the Cubs’ lowest in 17 years, and they were a league-best 45-36 on the road.

If Walton and Smith avoid the sophomore jinx, the Cubs’ offense is the most dangerous in the division.

First baseman Mark Grace is ready to join the premier hitters, joining teammates Ryne Sandberg and Andre Dawson.

After a slow start in 1989, shortstop Shawon Dunston sparked the Cubs to the division title with his bat and glove. Dunston hit .278 with nine homers and 60 RBIs.

Catcher Damon Berryhill is coming off surgery on his shoulder and is a question mark.

If the Cubs are to repeat, they will have to come up with another starter and hope Mitch Williams can repeat his performance of 1989 when he saved 36 games. The Cubs’ top three starters are set with Greg Maddux (19-12), Mike Bielecki (18-7) and Rick Sutcliffe (16-11).

Mike Harkey, Steve Wilson and Jose Nunez are contenders for the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation. Jeff Pico, Dean Wilkins, Joe Kraemer and Kevin Blankenship also will be given a shot.

St. Louis Cardinals

Manager Whitey Herzog knows better than anybody that the Cardinals can only stay alive if their pitching survives.

Danny Cox, Greg Mathews, John Tudor and reliever Todd Worrell are all coming off serious arm problems. After Joe Magrane (18-9, 2.91 ERA), Jose DeLeon (16-12) and newcomer Bryn Smith (10-11, 2.84 ERA), Herzog is looking for some healthy arms.

The infield remains intact with Pedro Guerrero at first base, Jose Oquendo at second, Ozzie Smith at short and Terry Pendleton at third. Guerrero is coming off an injury-free season (.311, 17 HRs and 117 RBIs).

The Cardinals’ offense should get a big boost from catcher Todd Zeile. Zeile was voted the No. 1 prospect in the American Assn. after hitting .289 with 19 homers and 85 RBIs for Louisville.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Last season was a big disappointment for Manager Jim Leyland and the Pirates coming off a run for the division in 1988.

The Pirates made 160 errors last season, including 35 by third baseman Bobby Bonilla. The pitching was also devastated by injuries, losing 1988 relief ace Jim Gott for the entire season after elbow surgery.

Nagging injuries all season hampered center fielder Andy Van Slyke (.237, nine HRs and 53 RBIs). Van Slyke, who never got going, was an MVP contender in 1988 when he hit .288 with 25 homers and 100 RBIs.

The starting rotation has Doug Drabek, John Smiley, Bob Walk and newcomer Walt Terrell. After that, the spots are up for grabs.

To help the defense a little, Bonilla is moving to right field. In the infield, Jeff King will be at third base and Jay Bell at shortstop. But Bonilla will probably go back to third if King doesn’t hit enough.

Montreal Expos

Well, at least Montreal has the Canadiens.

The Expos, thinking they could win a pennant, traded three young pitchers to Seattle for left-hander Mark Langston last May. But after being swept by the Mets in early August, the Expos collapsed. The Expos were 63-44 on Aug. 2, but went 18-37 the rest of the way.

Things got even worse after the season.

Langston, Bryn Smith, Pasqual Perez and Hubie Brooks all signed free-agent contracts with other clubs. So much for the pennant.

To help make up for the loss of the starters, the Expos took a chance and signed Dennis (Oil Can) Boyd and Joaquin Andujar. The best of the youngsters appears to be right-hander Mark Gardner (12-4, 2.37 ERA at Indianapolis).

The Expos will need a lot of runs this season so Tim Raines, Tim Wallach and Andres Galarraga (23 HRs and 85 RBIs) will all need career seasons.

Rodgers thinks rookie Marquis Grissom is ready to take over for Brooks in the outfield.

Philadelphia Phillies

If the Expos can’t put together a pitching staff, the Phillies may actually escape the basement. Maybe.

The Phils, of course, have their own pitching problems. They have finished last in the league in ERA for two straight years, including a 4.04 mark in 1989.

At least the bullpen came together last season with the addition of Roger McDowell (23 saves, 1.96 ERA) and Jeff Parrett (12-6, 2.98 ERA).

Over the winter, the Phils signed free agent Carmelo Martinez.

Every winter there’s rumors of Von Hayes (26 HRs, 101 RBIs) being traded. But he remains the most dangerous bat in the Phillies’ lineup.