Will Surprises of 1989 Help Out Orioles Again?

You can find them in every corner of the Baltimore Orioles’ lineup this spring. They make up more than half of the infield, three-fifths of the probable starting rotation, the top spot in the bullpen, two-thirds of what appears to be the Opening Day outfield.

Collectively, they were among the biggest surprises in the major leagues a year ago, a group of young players, mostly rookies, who helped transform the Orioles from a joke into a contender: Gregg Olson, Mickey Tettleton, Jeff Ballard, Dave Johnson, Bob Milacki, Randy Milligan, Craig Worthington, Mike Devereaux, Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch.

All but Tettleton and Ballard are essentially sophomore major-leaguers this year, and all, including Tettleton and Ballard, are at approximately the same station in their careers: They have had their first real success in the majors (some more than others), and now it is time to see if they are a) for real, or b) one-season wonders.

No team in baseball is relying so heavily on players who, though successful as fledgling major-leaguers, have yet to prove long-haul consistency. Thus, even though they are coming off a season in which they almost won the American League East, the Orioles are a team of questions as the 1990 season begins.

Can Tettleton hit 26 homers again? Can Olson convert 27 of 33 save opportunities? Is Ballard really an 18-game winner? Can Worthington drive in even more runs? Can Devereaux be the everyday center fielder? Can Milligan be the everyday first baseman? Can Milacki throw 243 innings again? Can Harnisch settle down and win? Does Johnson have more magic? Is Finley ready to produce?

The Orioles’ season will turn on the answers to these questions. There are three possible scenarios:

--They all come through. If it happens, the Orioles are certifiably deep in young talent and should be contenders not only this year, but also for many to come.

--None comes through. Disaster strikes. The Orioles turn back into Zer-Os. “If there’s such a thing as the sophomore jinx, we’re going to have a terrible year,” Manager Frank Robinson said. (FYI: He was kidding. He doesn’t think there is.)

--Some come through and some don’t.

The last scenario is the most likely simply because of the mathematics involved. How likely is it that every one of these players duplicates or betters his 1989 performance? And how likely is it that they all crater? Not likely either way. We’re talking about 10 players here. That’s a lot. The world just isn’t that perfect, or that terrible.

Statistical chance suggests that, even in a good year, one or two or more won’t cut it. Injuries. Nerves. Something will happen. Similarly, one or two or more should come through even in a bad year. There is just too much talent spread among these players for there to be a collective flop.

So, who is going to come through, and who isn’t? Do I look like the Amazing Kreskin? Obviously, there is no way of knowing right now. The front office believes in them all--otherwise they wouldn’t figure so prominently in the blueprints.

Finley and Harnisch concern the team the most right now, which is understandable considering that they proved the least in 1989. Harnisch was inconsistent as a starting pitcher, finishing 5-9, and has been shaky this spring. Finley was injured a lot last year and had little chance to do much. He has been handed right field this spring because of his fielding, but he isn’t hitting, and he’s pressing.

Who, on the other hand, is the most likely to succeed? My vote is for Olson. It’s hard to envision him struggling; he’s too tough. One thing is certain: All 10 of them will have to raise their games this year. Robinson is right in that there isn’t such a thing as a sophomore jinx -- his batting average went up 32 points in his second year -- but there are factors to consider.

“What happens in a player’s second season is that the other teams have made adjustments, and it’s up to the player to react,” Robinson said. “The other teams have had all winter to figure out how to pitch to the hitters who have hurt them, or how to attack certain pitchers who have done well against them. A player in his second year might see a lot of different things from what he saw as a rookie. It doesn’t have to be difficult, but it can be.”

Indeed. It is an important test for players coming off a season in which they had their first real success. Some just don’t make it. The Orioles know all about that. Mike Young hit 28 homers in 1985 and never approached that form again. Larry Sheets hit 31 homers in 1987, and 17 the next two seasons combined. Pitchers learned how to get them out.

It is a frightening thought. Among the current Orioles, there are different reactions to the subject of the sophomore jinx. Devereaux screwed up his nose at the very mention of the words, as if they were a curse. But Olson was so intrigued he sought out Robinson as soon as the lockout was over and camps opened.

“What’s the sophomore jinx?” he asked Robinson.

“Adjustments, nothing but that,” Robinson said. “Pitchers adjusting to hitters. Hitters adjusting to pitchers.”

“So, what do I have to do?” Olson asked.

“Nothing,” Robinson said, “You don’t have to do anything. Until you have to.”