Double Triple Is Not a Safe Bet but There Are Ways to Play the Odds

Frustrated bettors at Pimlico in Maryland don’t need to be reminded how difficult the double triple is. Nobody has hit the wager for 20 racing days, and the losers’ money has swelled the jackpot carry-over to $628,417.

But anyone trying to pick, for example, the one-two-three finishers in today’s third and fifth races might consider one pertinent fact. With 12 horses in each race, there are 1,742,400 possible outcomes to the double triple. Even if a bold syndicate were prepared to invest $50,000, it would be able to cover only 1% of the combinations.

Given these probabilities, is there any rational way to approach the double triple?

Absolutely.

But while most people think of double-triple strategy in terms of formulating their wagers, the most important part of this bet is deciding whether to play at all. It’s like a poker game; sometimes the best decision a player can make is to fold his cards immediately, instead of getting into trouble.

If a 12-horse field is evenly matched, with no standout and with few horses who are obvious throw-outs, playing the double triple becomes unfeasible. (Using all the combinations of just six horses in each race costs $43,200. Seven horses, $132,300.)

In any form of gambling, chasing money that already has been lost is a dangerous practice. Regardless of his previous investments, a handicapper should scrutinize each double triple and judge whether it appears to be playable. These are the things that can make it playable.

- A key horse. Betting the double triple is most manageable when there is one solid horse in one of the races. If a handicapper thinks No. 2 is a standout and that Nos. 6, 8 and 9 are the contenders, he can “key” his top choice and cover the race with only six combinations (2-6-8, 2-6-9, 2-8-6, 2-8-9, 2-9-6, 2-9-8). He then can afford to use more combinations in the other part of the double triple. Without a key horse, everything gets too expensive.

- A race that can be narrowed to a small number of contenders. Sometimes rock-bottom maiden races contain many animals that are so bad that they couldn’t even get lucky and sneak in to finish third. By the process of elimination, only a few horses can be considered contenders--making the race playable even if there is no standout.

- A smaller-than-usual field. The best chance of narrowing a race to a few contenders comes in a small field. The size of the double-triple fields is sometimes reduced by late scratches, and when that happens, odds governing the wager are changed dramatically. Reduce each field from 12 to 11 horses and the number of possible winning combinations drops from 1.74 million to 980,000. The double triple becomes half as difficult to win.

When a handicapper determines that the double triple is playable, he should carefully plot the number of combinations he wants to use in each race. The most common strategies are to key one horse over several others, or to box several horses (i.e., take all possible combinations involving those horses). These are the number of combinations involved in some typical plays:

Key 1 horse over three others: 6

Key 1 horse over four others: 12

Key 1 horse over five others: 20

Key 1 horse over six others: 30

Box 3 horses: 6

Box 4 horses: 24

Box 5 horses: 60

Box 6 horses: 120

To calculate the size of the investment, multiply the number of combinations needed in each race, and then multiply by $3, the size of the double-triple wager. To key one horse over three others in one race and to box four horses in the other races costs $432 (6 x 24 x $3).

Of course, the variations on betting configurations are endless. A bettor might play marginal contenders to finish third only. He might play combinations using his key horse to finish second with all the other contenders.

But the secret of the double triple is to wait for the track to offer a worthy opportunity, rather than to pursue a big jackpot just because it’s there. When the right situation does arise, the prudent player will have his bankroll intact and will be ready to bet aggressively. And if some more intrepid gambler hits the double triple while he is waiting, the prudent player won’t fret. There always will be other big jackpots, and it takes only one to change a gambler’s life.