BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : Halfway to Success, Halfway to Oblivion

At the All-Star break of a lockout season, these are the keys to the kingdom:

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

With all of their other assets, the Oakland Athletics still seem to need a physically sound Jose Canseco. The A’s were 8-9 and scored three or fewer runs 10 times when Canseco was out of the lineup in June.

His absence accentuates a lack of productivity by the designated hitters, but with him, the A’s could wrap up a third consecutive division title by mid-August, because they play 17 of their first 20 games after the break and 26 of their first 33 at home, where they are 21-14.

A return to form by Mike Moore could make it easy. A 19-game winner last year, Moore is 7-7 and has been unable to get his fastball much above 80 m.p.h. for most of the first half.

The Chicago White Sox have held on doggedly, but only catcher Carlton Fisk is accustomed to pennant pressure, and one wonders how many times Manager Jeff Torborg can juggle his bullpen mirrors before they crack.

White Sox relief pitchers made a numbing 193 appearances through 75 games, averaging 3 2/3 innings a game while working 36% of the staff’s total. The relievers’ 20-8 record, parlayed with Bobby Thigpen’s 26 saves, reflects the bullpen’s importance to Torborg, but a yield of seven or more runs three times in the last week of the first half may be a more relevant statistic now.

Probable Finish: 1--Oakland, 2--Seattle, 3--Chicago, 4--Kansas City, 5--Minnesota, 6--Texas, 7--Angels.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

New England title hopes hinge primarily on the ability of Roger Clemens, who is 12-4; Mike Boddicker, 11-4; and Greg Harris, 6-3, to remain injury-free. Boston has tried six other starters in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation and they are a combined 5-10.

Rumors persist that the Red Sox are willing to trade Mike Greenwell, who has not hit a home run on the road in nearly a year and hit his only two homers of this year on April 27, to the Atlanta Braves for a young pitcher; but, barring a trade, the Boston staff consists primarily of the three starters and closer Jeff Reardon, sidelined twice in the first half because of injuries and used five times in one recent six-game span by Manager Joe Morgan, prompting the ESPN analyst of the same name to tell his audience, “It wasn’t me folks.”

Morgan’s managing aside--the truth is, the Red Sox only thought about asking American League President Bobby Brown to extend their manager’s recent suspension--the Red Sox will enter the second half believing they can dominate their Eastern rivals, against whom they are 25-12, and dominate anyone at home, where they are 28-13 with 40 games remaining in Fenway Park.

Toronto, by contrast, has only 32 games left at home and 44 on the road. A team that leads the league in scoring, the Blue Jays should also boast the deepest and best starting staff, but their performance has been enigmatic.

At various times in the first half, the Blue Jays lost six of eight, nine of 10 and six in a row, the starters compiling a 5.91 earned-run average in those spells. Then there were surges of five consecutive victories, 10 of 11, seven of nine and eight of 10, when the ERA was 3.25.

If Dave Stieb, Todd Stottlemyre, David Wells, Jimmy Key and John Cerutti ever maintain one of those rolls--as they have the ability to do--the race could be reversed in a hurry.

Probable Finish: 1--Toronto, 2--Boston, 3--Milwaukee, 4--Cleveland, 5--Detroit, 6--Baltimore, 7--New York.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

There doesn’t seem to be any way the Cincinnati Reds can blow it. Although Eric Davis, who missed 22 first-half games with injuries, has yet to find his groove, the regular lineup includes six players with 28 or more runs batted in, six with batting averages of .280 or higher and three with 20 or more stolen bases.

They have depth on the bench and in the bullpen. And with a 22-10 home record, they get 49 of their final 83 games there. The one question is the depth of the rotation. Jose Rijo is again sidelined because of a shoulder injury, and replacement Scott Scudder has been hit hard. Rick Mahler has been mediocre since replacing the traded Ron Robinson.

However, Jack Armstrong and Tom Browning are a combined 19-8, and Danny Jackson has permitted only six earned runs in the 24 2/3 innings of his last four starts, the struggle to recover from his arm injury of 1989 apparently behind him.

The Reds have several other factors going for them, specifically the underachieving San Diego Padres, the mediocre Dodgers and the defending champion San Francisco Giants, who post the best lineup among these alleged contenders but are still trying to cope with pitching injuries.

If the basically rookie duo of John Burkett and Trevor Wilson, who had 12 of the Giants’ 41 victories entering the final weekend of the first half, can continue to stabilize the riddled rotation, and sophomore Jeff Brantley can provide the consistent relief that Steve Bedrosian hasn’t provided, San Francisco might still be a threat, but it’s a tall order.

Probable Finish: 1--Cincinnati, 2--San Francisco, 3--Dodgers, 4--San Diego, 5--Atlanta, 6--Houston.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

The New York Mets’ ongoing roll under new Manager Bud Harrelson tends to cloud the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates’ lineup is just as formidable and, position by position, maybe superior.

What separates the two is the proven quality and quantity of the Mets’ rotation. Who do you like: Dwight Gooden, Frank Viola, David Cone, Sid Fernandez and Bob Ojeda; or Neal Heaton, John Smiley, Doug Drabek, Bob Walk and Walt Terrell? Fernandez has missed two recent starts because of a shoulder problem, but Ron Darling, while unhappy with his uncertain role, has stepped in to pitch effectively.

That edge gives the Mets a better chance to sustain a streak or stop a slump, but the Pirates have an edge of their own. They are 23-10 at home and play 48 of their 81 second-half games there.

The Mets must play 47 of their last 85 on the road, where they were 17-17 entering Saturday night’s game at Atlanta.

Probable Finish: 1--New York, 2--Pittsburgh, 3--Montreal, 4--Chicago, 5--Philadelphia, 6--St. Louis.

At some point in the next few days, weeks or months, Angel owner Gene Autry will place a call to Whitey Herzog, who resigned Friday as manager of the St. Louis Cardinals. Autry has long been an admirer of Herzog’s.

Reached Friday, shortly after Herzog announced his resignation, Autry said: “I think a lot of Whitey. He’s a fine man and fine manager. I will probably touch base with him at some point, but I’m not going to call until he has had a chance to sit back and get a hold on his emotions.”

The hiring of Herzog in a field or developmental capacity would be a wise move by the Angels. Autry once had him under contract, but let him slip away.

Herzog coached for the Angels in 1974, during the great Bobby Winkles experiment, when then-General Manager Harry Dalton hired Winkles directly off the Arizona State campus.

When Winkles was fired during the season, Herzog served briefly as interim manager before the hiring of Dick Williams. At the end of that season, Herzog left to become manager of the Kansas City Royals.

“I probably should have hired Whitey as manager instead of Williams,” Autry said Friday. “That’s probably one of the biggest mistakes I’ve ever made. Williams came in and didn’t do any better than Winkles had. Whitey went on to become one of the best managers in baseball.”

Autry insisted that he isn’t thinking of a change in his managerial or front-office ranks, but merely voicing respect for Herzog.

“Our hitters have gone cold right now,” he said, “but Doug Rader is doing a good job. I can’t fault the manager for our position.”