75% Say They’d Back Bush in Using Force Against Iraq

Amid heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf, three out of four Americans say they would support further military action against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein--but an equal number believes President Bush should spend less time on such international problems and devote more attention to the economy and other domestic challenges, a Times Poll has found.

Although the survey found that Bush remains broadly popular, it also illuminated potential cracks in his imposing political position: substantial anxiety about the nation’s direction, overwhelming agreement that the economy remains mired in recession and a solidifying consensus that he is most at home abroad.

“Bush pays too little attention to what’s going on in this country,” said Lynne Abel, a production supervisor for a pharmaceutical company in Hi-Nella, N. J., who responded to the poll. “Don’t mistake me--I know there are world problems. But there is unemployment, hungry people, a lot of strange things going on in our own government. I think we need to get back to basics and take care of our own people.”

Although the rapidly assembling cast of Democratic presidential contenders hopes to make precisely that case against the President in the upcoming campaign, the survey found that the party faces its own formidable hurdles on the road back to the White House. Despite the recession, and doubts about Bush’s handling of the economy, the GOP still leads the Democrats on the key question of which party can better produce prosperity.

The poll found also that:

--Americans believe by a 54%-19% majority that the Senate should confirm Judge Clarence Thomas for a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court. But a 44%-37% plurality believes that he should be rejected if it were to be ascertained that he would vote to overturn Roe vs. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision guaranteeing a woman’s right to an abortion. Thomas has refused to answer questions on the issue.

--By a ratio of almost 2 to 1, Americans want Bush to sign new legislation extending unemployment benefits for jobless workers. But just one-fifth of those polled said they would be less likely to vote for Bush in 1992 if he vetoes the bill, as he has threatened.

--Almost two-thirds of Americans oppose the recent Supreme Court decision upholding rules that prevent doctors in federally funded family planning clinics from discussing abortion with their patients. Almost 30% of those polled said they would be less likely to vote for the President’s reelection if he vetoes legislation overturning the decision, but 12% said a veto would strengthen their support for Bush and 55% said it would not affect their decision.

The Times Poll, supervised by poll director John Brennan, surveyed 1,597 adults from Sept. 21 through 24; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

For Bush, the overall picture is still very bright, the survey found. By a ratio of 3 to 1, Americans approve of his performance in foreign policy. Seventy-five percent of those surveyed said they would support the President if he decides to use military force to compel Iraq to cooperate with U.N. inspectors searching for nuclear or chemical weapons. Fifty-six percent said they would strongly support such action.

Just one-fifth of those polled opposed the use of force; as before the Gulf War itself, opposition was somewhat greater among women and considerably stronger among blacks.

Overall, 65% of Americans approved of Bush’s performance as President. Although that figure marks a continued decline from the 80% he recorded at the end of the Gulf War, it is an extraordinarily robust figure for a President so late in his first term, not to mention one confronting a sluggish economy. Bush’s approval is all the more remarkable given that 50% of those surveyed believed the country is on the wrong track, and only 40% felt it is moving in the right direction.

Why has the President not suffered more political damage from the recession? One reason, said Brennan, is that Bush does not polarize voters as Reagan did. Forty percent or more of both blacks and Democrats approve of Bush’s job performance in the new survey; by comparison, just 13% of blacks and 25% of Democrats gave Reagan good marks at the same point in his presidency.

Also, Brennan maintained, “it’s questionable whether this recession is as serious as the one in 1982,” which battered Reagan’s popularity. Just under 40% of those surveyed this month said they considered the economy or unemployment the most important problem facing the nation; by comparison, in October, 1982, almost three-fourths cited the recession, unemployment or the economy as the nation’s most important problem in a Gallup Organization poll.

Perhaps even more important, the Times Poll suggests that Democrats have failed to articulate a convincing alternative to Bush’s policies. Ed Arnold, a Mansfield, Ohio, dairy farmer, said that, although he has grown disillusioned with Bush since voting for him in 1988, “The Democrats have not been able to get behind a single platform that is attractive to me.” That sentiment echoed through the findings.

Although those polled agreed by an overwhelming 76% to 21% that Bush pays too much attention to foreign affairs, they gave the Democrats in Congress only an unenthusiastic 40%-35% advantage over the President as the source of “better ideas” for solving the nation’s social problems.

Similarly, although half of those polled disapproved of Bush’s economic performance, the GOP still led the Democrats by a margin of 40% to 32% as the party best able to keep America prosperous.

That advantage represents a decline from the 2-1 lead the GOP held in a Times Poll last spring. But Republicans continue to lead on this measure even among Americans who consider the economy in a mild or moderate recession. Only the 30% of respondents who term the recession “serious” prefer that the Democrats take charge on economic issues.

“The economic malaise the country is in should be the President’s soft underbelly, but we don’t know if anybody for the Democrats can take advantage of that,” said Democratic strategist Brian Lunde. “This is where the ghost of Jimmy Carter comes in--too many people remember rejecting us for our economic performance . . . .”

Still, the poll suggested that doubts about the Democrats do not currently threaten their control of the House of Representatives. By 47% to 39%, respondents said that they would vote for a Democrat over a Republican in their congressional district if the election was held today, a margin that has traditionally translated into a Democratic congressional majority.

Meanwhile, as the Senate Judiciary Committee prepares to vote on Thomas’ nomination to the Supreme Court, those polled gave the U.S. Court of Appeals judge a qualified endorsement. Despite strong criticism of Thomas by civil rights groups concerned about his opposition to affirmative action, support for his nomination actually varied little by race: whites and blacks backed his appointment by nearly identical tallies of 55% to 18% and 55% to 21%. Latinos supported Thomas by 44% to 15%.

Younger blacks supported him by a ratio of greater than 3 to 1, but older blacks backed him by just 2 to 1. Several black respondents of all ages said they believed Thomas may turn out to be less conservative than he now appears.

RECESSION WORRIES: Times Poll finds 8 of 10 think U.S. is still in a recession. D1

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,597 adult Americans nationwide by telephone from Sept. 21 to 24. Telephone numbers were selected from a list of all telephone exchanges in the United States. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that households with unlisted and listed telephone numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviews were conducted in either English or Spanish. Oversampling techniques were used to produce larger-size subgroups of blacks and Latinos for analysis, which were weighted to their proper proportions in the nationwide sample. Results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on variables such as sex, race and national origin, age and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher.

The Times Poll

Which party, the Democrats or the Republicans:

Both Equally/ Don’t Democrats Republicans Neither Know

Who has the better ideas for solving the social problems this country currently faces: President Bush or the Democrats in Congress? Democrats: 40% President Bush: 35% Both Equally / Neither: 13% Don’t Know: 12%