A ‘Dangerous’ Game : Industry Debates Odds on Another Monster Hit

On the eve of tonight’s premiere of Michael Jackson’s $4-million “Black or White” video, insiders in the record business are divided on whether the 33-year-old pop icon still has the star power to guarantee a commercial blockbuster during this economic downturn.

“Michael Jackson’s new album, ‘Dangerous,’ is going to be a monster,” Angie Diehl-Jacobs, director of marketing for the 93-outlet Los Angeles-based Music Plus Inc. said in an interview Wednesday. “It’s one album that can truly live up to the hype. Anybody who thinks this is just a sequel to ‘Bad’ is in for a big surprise.”

Roy Trakin, senior editor of the music industry trade publication HITS, cautions that the competition for consumer dollars has increased sharply in Jackson’s long absence from the pop scene.

“Michael’s been away a long time and that really is dangerous ,” Trakin said. “He’s older now and so are his fans. There are new stars to contend with. It’s a different marketplace. Personally, I like the new single, but who knows, Michael may be prime for a backlash. The campaign could backfire.”

Epic Records, which won’t release “Dangerous” until Nov. 26, kicks off its multimillion-dollar campaign tonight at 8:25 when Fox Television and the cable channels MTV and BET premiere Jackson’s new 11-minute mega-video for “Black or White.” Album advance orders: over 2.3 million.

Even John Landis calls the video “an 11-minute commercial” for the album. Fox, however, argues that “Black or White” is more than just an ad for “Dangerous.” The network feels it scored a coup by obtaining broadcast rights. Fox is selling commercial spots that were not already sold tonight for a premium, and will repeat the video Sunday as part of a half-hour, prime-time special.

While most industry observers expect “Dangerous” to premiere at No. 1 on Billboard magazine’s Top 200 album chart, eventually the album’s success will be measured against the totals of Jackson’s last two smash hits: the 25 million worldwide sales for 1987’s “Bad” and the 48 million of 1982’s “Thriller.”

Initially, however, the figure to watch is 770,000. That’s the record held by Guns N’ Roses “Use Your Illusion II” for the most units sold during an album’s first week in the stores since Billboard began using the computerized SoundScan system to monitor record sales six months ago.

Even without the media frenzy surrounding today’s telecast, Sony officials ought to be encouraged by initial radio station response to the new Jackson single.

“Black or White,” a rock ‘n’ dance song about racial harmony, set a new record Tuesday when it was added to 96% of 237 of the nation’s Top 40 radio stations the first day of its release. The previous high mark--94%--was set in 1989 by Madonna’s “Like a Prayer.”

Ken Barnes, senior vice president and editor of the Los Angeles-based trade publication Radio & Records, said he was impressed with radio’s immediate acceptance of the single.

“That’s a hell of a start,” Barnes said Wednesday.

In Los Angeles, the single is among the top five most requested songs on KPWR-FM (105.9), where it has been airing regularing since Nov. 2.

“Requests are pouring in from old people, young people, blacks, whites, Hispanics, Asians. Expectations are extremely high not just for the single, but (for) the entire album,” said KPWR-FM program director Rick Cummings.

But Brian Marks, program director at KPWR’s New York sister station WQHT-FM (97.1), said listener reaction has been less overwhelming on the East Coast.

WQHT-FM began airing an unauthorized version of “Black or White” last week back-to-back with a bootleg tape of his brother Jermaine’s “Word to the Badd!!,” an acrid musical swipe about Michael’s experimentation with plastic surgery.

“Frankly, we’ve gotten much more of a response to Jermaine’s record,” Marks said. “Still, it seems like the listeners who call are anxiously waiting to hear what kind of music Michael will reveal on the new album.”

But what about the economy?

Sales in the $7 billion-a-year record business were off 11% during the first six months of the year and have continued to be sluggish this fall.

Officials at Handleman Co., a Troy, Mich.-based distribution company that supplies records to more than 5,000 discount stores including K mart, seem to have little apprehension about the album’s sales potential. Handleman’s advance order for “Dangerous” reportedly exceeded 1 million copies, the largest in the firm’s history.

“This isn’t a big-ticket item like a car or a home here,” said Mario DeFilippo, senior vice president of purchasing at Handleman. “This is a very affordable gift item by the biggest recording star in the world. Sure, we wish the economy was in better shape, but we are extremely confident that Michael’s record is going to be the smash event of the Christmas season.”

But Rob Kahane, manager for pop star George Michael, questioned whether the massive media splash surrounding the project can actually translate into record sales.

“Hype only goes so far with pop fans these days,” Kahane says. “These are tight economic times and consumers are much more discerning. The real barometer now isn’t how many ads you run or how many albums you ship--it’s how many records you can sell over the counter. That’s where the truth lies. . . . “Look at what happened last week with Hammer. He’s a perfect example of how over-hyping and over-exposing an artist doesn’t fly anymore. His record company shipped a ton of records and spent millions in advertising, but it sold less than 100,000 copies. In the end, no matter what I or anybody else in the industry tells you about ‘Dangerous,’ it’s all mere speculation. Only the public knows what’s going to happen for sure and they’ll vote with their pocketbooks.”