The Presidential Stakes

Of the many atrocities visited upon life and language by the American political process, none is worse than its appropriation of the vocabulary of a far more noble pursuit: Betting on horses. As long as the pols are going to use racetrack metaphors, we railbirds deserve a countershot.

Here, then, is how a pure horseplayer would view November’s big contest:

Purse: $800,000 to be paid in four annual installments

Conditions: Match race between winners of earlier prep races.

Trophy: Briefcase with nuclear-attack codes

Track conditions: Sloppy and muddy

1. George Bush (Republican Stable)

Won this race last time around against opposition that folded like a cheap tent, but there’s no guarantee the competition’s going to be any better this time.

Bush is the only one to have been the distance in a race over the track on this major circuit. He’s actually had three, counting his two appearances with former retired two-time winner Ronald Reagan, but has he been around the track once too often? In a recent prep race in Tokyo, he suffered from colic and collapsed. The incident refocused attention on his entrymate, Dan Quayle, who has been seen as a hindrance. If Bush were to suffer a serious physical problem, bettors would be stuck holding tickets on Quayle, whose inherent racing smarts have long been in doubt among handicappers. Still, Bush deserves a bet at 3-to-5 or better. Returning champions have a way of winning the second time around. 3-to-5

2. Bill Clinton (Democratic Stable)

Written off after a dreary performance on the undercard four years ago, Clinton has emerged as the leading hope of the once-glamorous Democratic Stable. Steady training over his home track in Arkansas seems to have sharpened his speed and put some fire in his eyes.

Reports of studdish tendencies have been noted. While some have suggested that gelding him would settle him down, there are no plans to do so right now. However, rumors of grossly inappropriate behavior continue to surround him, so he may not be safe from the knife.

Not an inspiring bet at 3-to-1, but if he wins the Democratic Stable prep races and gets into a match race, he is not a bad flyer in case Bush stumbles. 3-to-1.

3. Bob Kerrey (Democratic Stable)

Somewhat of a sentimental favorite because of courage in recovering from an injury, Kerrey has yet to establish a running style in the minds of most handicappers but, by default, has become the second choice among the Democratic Stable hopefuls.

He has shown himself capable of the occasional stirring rally, but skeptics say these charges are well orchestrated and will become more predictable and easier to head off.

He is still attractive, since an upset over Clinton in the qualifiers would put him in the match race for the big prize, and 8-to-1 is a square price in a two-horse race. 8-to-1.

4. Tom Harkin (Democratic Stable)

A predictable plodder with a one-dimensional running style, Harkin is at the mercy of the way a race develops. If circumstances burn out those more heavily favored, he could come clunking up, but no one expects the race to unfold that way.

Harkin seems a throwback to the runners of a generation ago, but the game has changed too much for him to be a serous factor. 15-to-1

5. Patrick Buchanan (Republican Stable)

At the opposite end of the spectrum from Harkin, Buchanan is pure cheap speed that will be left gasping before the race is half over.

He is sure to get more attention than is warranted in the early stages, simply because his colors will be prominent, but he figures to be caught before his chances become too serious. He also faces the virtually impossible task of unseating the defending champion as the standard-bearer of the Republican Stable, which always sends the winner back for another try.

Buchanan, making his maiden appearance as a racehorse, figures to be a far more valuable commodity after his defeat here when he returns to the show ring. 30-to-1

6. Jerry Brown (Democratic Stable)

Once promising as a young runner, Brown returned after a long absence from the races seeming to have lost a step, and he simply is not a credible entrant for a race of this stature. 30-to-1

7. Paul Tsongas (Democratic Stable)

People reading the past performances begin to think Tsongas is a bettable longshot, but once they get a look at him on the track, forget it.

While races are not beauty contests, Tsongas is so uninspiring a piece of horseflesh that he is just not taken seriously--especially because both his style and his looks are reminiscent of Michael Dukakis, and many bettors are still smarting from backing him in the last edition of this race. 50-to-1

8. Larry Agran (Democratic Stable)

He can’t even get into the starting gate for some of the prep races, and most bettors have never even heard of this obscure longshot.

If anyone you know wants the 1,000,000-to-1 on Agran, book the bet and it will be the easiest dollar you ever made. 1,000,000-to-1

9. Mario Cuomo (Democratic Stable)

After fluctuating between anywhere from 2-to-1 and 200-to-1, Cuomo is off the tote board since he is officially not a candidate. That could, however, make him the best betting proposition of the year.

A bet on Cuomo is simply a bet against Bush staying sound until the big race. If Bush drops out for any reason, suddenly Cuomo will be a candidate again, and he should be able to beat the Democrats in the preps and Quayle, Buchanan or any other stand-in in the main event.

What are the odds against Bush getting into the starting gate? 10-to-1? 20-to-1? If you can get more on Cuomo, bet with both fists. No Odds