This Carlsbad 5000 Race to Get Off Scott Free

How easy for a former world record-holder to predict a new world record, especially when his vantage point of the race is the comfort of a pace truck.

Steve Scott set world-best marks twice in his three-year reign--1986 to 1988--at the Carlsbad 5000. But his last three attempts weren’t nearly as satisfying, as the Leucadian finished well behind the leaders.

Scott, 35, ached for the chance to redeem himself in Sunday morning’s Carlsbad 5000, but the seventh running of this prestigious road race will be the first one staged without him.

“My goal was to run here, to show the last three years were not a good indicator of my abilities,” Scott said Thursday.

An Achilles’ tendon injury at the Sunkist Invitational in January curtailed his training and forced him into the role of prognosticator rather than competitor.

“It’s another great field,” he said. “I’m kind of glad I’m not running. When that beeper went off, I was thinking, ‘That’s probably another Olympic athlete calling to say he’s coming.’ ”

After a short discourse on the advantages of strength versus speed runners, tactics and how a runner can’t think about the bottom line until he sees who shows up on the starting line, Scott shared his saucy prediction.

“I think they’ll set a world record,” he said with a smile.

That forecast applies to the men in the invitational and wheelchair divisions. Many felt depth in the women’s field would yield the best race. But the elite men’s field, bolstered late in the week by the registration of Kenyans Richard Chelimo and William Mutwol, holds promise.

Endorsing Scott’s optimism was Yobes Ondieki of Kenya, the current 5,000 meters world record-holder who set the standard of 13 minutes, 26 seconds at Carlsbad in 1989.

“I just talked to Yobes,” race director Tim Murphy said. “He said, ‘Oh, with Richard and William there, they’ll run very fast. They’ll break the world record.’ . . . That’s the kind of field we have this year.”

Murphy talked to Ondieki for three weeks about running at Carlsbad, but without the permission of his agent, Ondieki had to pass.

Without him, the Kenyan contingent is still a tremendous addition to an already strong field that experts say might be better than 1989’s, when Ondieki caught Olympic steeplechase gold medalist and countryman Julius Kariuki, a few yards shy of the finish.

“Better than 1989,” Scott said.

Chelimo and Mutwol might be the early favorites, but they are hardly the only elite men capable of winning this race. Other contenders are past winners Frank O’Mara, the defending Carlsbad and 1991 3,000-meter indoor world champion from Ireland, and Utah’s Doug Padilla, a 10-time winner of the Sunkist Invitational at 3,000 meters and American 5K record-holder.

Also entered are Kenya native William Musyoki, now of Albuquerque, N.M., who is a two-time runner-up here, Mexico’s Ignacio Fragoso, another two-time top three finisher at Carlsbad, and Rhode Island’s John Gregorek, who took a second and third in this year’s Charlotte Observer 10K and the Rogaine 5K.

Another world record is expected to fall in the men’s wheelchair division. World champion Craig Blanchette, Jim Knaub and Bob Molinatti headline a field that could set a new standard.

Local racer Dave Bailey said Knaub and Blanchette, both of whom he has never beaten, “will really push it. . . . Maybe I can get (spectators) to thrown nails on the road,” he said with a laugh.

As for the women, any of half a dozen could win, starting with Russia’s Olga Markova, who Murphy said is now the hottest woman road racer around.

Markova, the surprise second-place finisher in the New York Marathon in the fall, has her eyes set on the Boston and Olympic marathons, but is running better than she ever has. Expected to challenge her are 1990 winner and 1991 runner-up Elly van Hulst of Holland, Villanova track standouts Sonia O’Sullivan and Vicky Huber, TAC national 3,000 meters champion Shelly Steely and France’s Annette Sergent, a national record-holder at multiple distances.

All the women skirted the issue of who was favored, but Sergent seemed to speak for them all when she said, “I will try to run in the lead. I will try to do my best and to do a good race.”

Van Hulst said: ‘You can’t say one will be the winner.”

Chelimo, an 18-year-old who won a million-dollar road race in Indonesia in February, and Mutwol, the silver medalist at the world cross-country championship this month in Boston, were equally evasive in their race assessment.

“It’s impossible to say who will win,” Chelimo said. “Competition is like a ceremony. Today may be my day, but tomorrow may belong to someone else.”

Race Notes

Steve Scott commands so much respect in running that 10,000-meter world record-holder Arturo Barrios told Tim Murphy tongue-in-cheek that once the Carlsbad race was renamed the “Steve Scott 5000,” he would consider running in it. Barrios speaks from experience. His own race, the Arturo Barrios 10K, is a prestigious race run annually in Chula Vista. . . . Wheelchair racer David Bailey may be as innovative as those curious America’s Cup yacht designers and sailmakers. Bailey said he is fascinated with finding ways to make his machine go faster, and is starting to dabble with carbon-fiber materials.

CARLSBAD 5000 AT A GLANCE

When--Sunday, March 29

What--5K Running-Walking Event (3.1 miles); Masters’ Race: 7:30 a.m. (Men and women 40 and older); Women’s Race: 8:15 a.m. (39 and younger); Men’s Race: 9 a.m. (39 and younger); Invitational: 9:50 a.m. (Elite men and women); Wheelchair: 9:55 a.m. (Invitational).

Where--Downtown Carlsbad. Starts on Grand Avenue and Jefferson Street, ends on State Street and Carlsbad Village Drive, formerly Elm Avenue.

The Course--Fast and flat, featuring two miles of Highway 101 next to the Pacific Ocean. After the start, runners climb a small hill and turn onto Carlsbad Boulevard. From there, head due south to a 180-degree hairpin turn, then north to another hairpin turn. Head south for a few hundred yards on the boulevard, then turn onto Carlsbad Village Drive and the finish line.

Times to Beat--Seven world records have been set here, four by women and three by men. Defending men’s champions Frank O’Mara (13:35) is back, but Scotland’s Liz McColgan, who set a women’s standard of 15:11 last year, is not. Kenya’s Yobes Ondieki set the men’s mark of 13:26 in 1989. More 5K age-group records have been set in Carlsbad than anywhere else.

Who to Watch--Kenyans Richard Chelimo, William Mutwol and William Musyoki, Americans Doug Padilla and John Gregorek, Mexico’s Ignacio Fragoso and Marcos Barreto and Ireland’s Frank O’Mara in the men’s field. Russia’s Olga Markova and Inna Pushkariova, Americans Vicky Huber and Lisa Weidenbach, Ireland’s Sonia O’Sullivan, Holland’s Elly van Hulst and France’s Annette Sergent are the women to track. In the wheelchair races, keep an eye on male favorites Craig Blanchette, Jim Knaub and Bob Molinatti, and female standouts Candace Cable and Deanna Sodoma.

What Else--Up to 25,000 people are expected to line the race course, where approximately 9,500 runners are expected to compete. Last year there were 8,318 participants. ESPN will feature the invitational for the third year as its Foot Locker Road Race of the Month, to be broadcast April 18 at 11:30 a.m.