TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : O.C. Republicans Favor Herschensohn, Seymour

Unlike the rest of California, Orange County Republicans are supporting conservative U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Herschensohn by a wide margin over his GOP primary opponent, Rep. Tom Campbell, according to a new poll.

Herschensohn, a former Los Angeles television commentator whose campaign is headquartered in Newport Beach, led Campbell 47% to 27% among Republican voters surveyed last week in a Times Orange County Poll.

In contrast, a Times Poll of voters statewide last week found registered Republicans more likely to favor Campbell who was leading Herschensohn 37% to 27%. When only likely voters were counted, Campbell’s lead dropped to 38% to 33%.

“Herschensohn does far better in Orange County than in the state, while Campbell (R-Stanford) does slightly better statewide,” said Mark Baldassare, who conducted the Orange County poll for The Times.

Herschensohn and Campbell are seeking the six-year seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston. Former Palm Springs Mayor Sonny Bono is also running in the same GOP primary June 2, and the poll found that he was supported by 10% of Orange County’s Republicans. One in six voters are undecided.

The GOP primary has some roots in Cranston’s 1986 reelection when Herschensohn finished second in the GOP primary behind Ed Zschau, a Northern California congressman who vacated the House seat now held by Campbell.

In the 1986 primary, Herschensohn lost the nomination by just 7 points even though he carried 55% of Orange County’s Republican votes to Zschau’s 22%.

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, contacted 600 Orange County registered voters between May 17 and 19.

In California’s other U.S. Senate race, the poll found Orange County Republicans also showing strong support for appointed Sen. John Seymour, the former state senator and mayor of Anaheim, in his primary race against another native son, Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton).

Seymour is leading Dannemeyer 45% to 25% in Orange County, with one in five voters still undecided. Last September, the Orange County Annual Survey, UCI found the two in a virtual tie with both at 23%.

In the statewide Times Poll, conducted May 16 through 19, Seymour was leading Dannemeyer 34% to 14%.

Seymour was appointed to the Senate last year to fill the remaining term of Gov. Pete Wilson. The seat will be on the ballot again in 1994 when Wilson’s term would normally have ended.

On the Democratic side, the race for Cranston’s six-year seat is a tight contest between three candidates--Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, Rep. Barbara Boxer (D-Greenbrae) and Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica).

The results in Orange County paralleled the recent statewide poll. In Orange County, McCarthy had 32%, followed closely by Boxer with 30% and Levine with 22%. Thirteen percent were undecided.

Statewide, 28% of the Democrats preferred McCarthy, 24% preferred Boxer and 22% were for Levine. Twenty-six percent were undecided. The poll found that Boxer and Levine are now much better known in Orange County than they were last September when they both scored less than 10%.

In the Democratic primary for Seymour’s two-year Senate seat, former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein was leading state Controller Gray Davis in Orange County by 44% to 35%, with 11% undecided.

It was a slightly closer margin than Feinstein had over Davis in Orange County last September, and it is much different than the statewide results. The statewide poll found Feinstein leading Davis by more than 2 to 1, 55% to 24%.

There are also two state bond measures on the June ballot intended to finance education. And despite the recession as well as a state budget shortfall of at least $5 billion, Orange County voters were strongly in favor of both plans to generate additional education dollars.

Proposition 152, which would authorize nearly $2 billion in bonds for construction and improvements of public schools, was favored by 61% to 33%, with 6% undecided. Statewide the measure is favored even more strongly, 66% to 28%, with 6% undecided, according to a recent California Poll.

Proposition 153, which would authorize $900 million in bonds for construction and improvement of California’s public colleges and universities, also found strong support in Orange County. Voters backed the measure 58% to 38%, with 4% undecided. Statewide the measure was also favored by a nearly identical 56% to 41%, with 3% undecided.

The Orange County poll found more support from Democrats than Republicans. And the measures’ support dropped substantially among voters over age 55.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted May 17 through 19 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. There were 330 Republicans and 204 Democrats in the survey. The margin of error was plus or minus 7% for results in the Democratic primary and 6% for Republicans. The margin of error for the total sample was plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.

Primary Prime Time

Races for California’s two U.S. Senate seats crowd this June’s election ballot. The short-term Republican seat has crystallized somewhat in Orange County, with incumbent Sen. John Seymour having pulled ahead of Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton. Seymour has doubled his share of GOP voters favoring him since September and runs ahead of Dannemeyer statewide as well. For the six-year seat, county Republicans prefer Bruce Herschensohn over Rep. Tom Campbell of Stanford. Herschensohn’s lead in the county has grown since September, but statewide Campbell is ahead.

The Democratic race for the two-year seat finds Dianne Feinstein with a lead over state Controller Gray Davis in Orange County. She runs even stronger statewide, claiming a majority of party voters. The contest for the long seat has turned dramatically. Rep. Barbara Boxer of Marin County and Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy are now virtually tied in the county--where he once held a 4-to-1 advantage--and statewide. REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

If you were voting today in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat, which candidate would you vote for?

Orange County California September May May 1991** 1992 1992 John Seymour 23 %45 %34% William E. Dannemeyer 23 25 14 Bill Allen n/a 8 5 Other 7 2 1 Don’t know 47 20 46

If you were voting today in the Republican primary for the other U.S. Senate seat, which candidate would you vote for?

Orange County California September May May 1991** 1992 1992 Bruce Herschensohn 30% 47% 27% Tom Campbell 19 27 37 Sonny Bono n/a 10 9 Other 5 1 * Don’t know 46 15 27

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

If you were voting today in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat, which candidate would you vote for?

Orange County California September May May 1991** 1992 1992 Dianne Feinstein 38% 44% 55% Gray Davis 26 35 24 Joseph Alioto n/a 9 4 Other 7 1 * Don’t know 29 11 17

If you were voting today in the Democratic primary for the other U.S. Senate seat, which candidate would you vote for?

Orange County California September May May 1991** 1992 1992 Leo T. McCarthy 36% 32% 28% Barbara Boxer 9 30 24 Mel Levine 6 22 22 Other 6 3 * Don’t know 43 13 26

* Less than 1% ** Asked in 1991 Orange County Annual Survey, UCI Sources: Times Orange County Poll; Orange County Annual Survey, UCI; the Times Poll