HORSE RACING : If He Runs, Dixie Brass Could Perk Up Dull Belmont Field

The candidates for the Belmont Stakes are an unexciting bunch, and it would be hard to find many bettors prepared to wager with enthusiasm and conviction on the likes of A.P. Indy or Pine Bluff. But there is one colt who might inspire horseplayers to open their wallets Saturday. His name is Dixie Brass.

Speed handicappers would see him as the top “figure horse” in the race. Pace handicappers would see him as the sole front-runner in the field. Historians would see in his form a strong resemblance to Conquistador Cielo, the runaway winner of the 1982 Belmont.

But the colt’s admirers are unlikely to see him at all, because trainer Dennis Brida is disinclined to run him in the 1 1/2-mile classic. He and owner Michael Watral are still pondering whether to enter him Thursday morning.

Dixie Brass has always possessed plenty of raw speed -- he won his 3-year-old debut, the six-furlong Swift Stakes at Aqueduct in impressive fashion -- but Brida figured it was important to teach the youngster to conserve that speed if he were to go longer distances. This experiment failed as Dixie Brass lost his next two starts, so when Brida put the colt in the one-mile Withers Stakes at Belmont May 6, he abandoned all subtlety and told jockey Julio Pezua: Let him roll.

Dixie Brass rolled. He set what looked like a suicidal pace, running the first half mile in 44 2-5 seconds, but he kept on going strongly. He destroyed a weak group of 3 year olds by more than eight lengths and was timed in a brilliant 1:33 3-5 -- just three-fifths of a second slower than Conquistador Cielo’s track record.

On May 25 Dixie Brass was asked to go a mile again, this time against some of the country’s top older horses, including In Excess and Twilight Agenda, and he stunned them, winning the Metropolitan Handicap by more than two lengths. Only four 3 year olds in the last 40 years have managed to defeat their elders in this historic event, and three of them came back to win the Belmont -- Sword Dancer, Arts and Letters and Conquistador Cielo. Dixie Brass is in some pretty illustrious company.

But Brida has steered a conservative course with his colt, and he intends to follow it. “I felt initially when we looked at the Triple Crown races that it would be a tough chore,” he said. “My main concern is keeping this horse healthy and happy for the whole summer and for his 4-year-old season. If we jumped into the Belmont now, we feel we would have a chance -- and you only get one shot at this race -- but it may be too much for our horse at this juncture. We may try to catch these horses in August and September.”

The Belmont’s 1 1/2-mile distance might indeed be too much for Dixie Brass at any stage of his career. The colt has not proved that he can win beyond a mile; he doesn’t appear to have the tractability that horses need at long distances; his pedigree may be a question too. (His sire, Dixieland Band, was best from one to 1 1/8 miles.) Brida said: “If you asked the jockey, he’d tell you his best distance was a mile to a mile and an eighth. I think he can go a mile and a quarter. But a mile and a half is probably too far.”

Brida knows, as does every handicapper, that when a speed horse gets the optimal conditions he may be able to go a distance that would ordinarily be too far for him. That, of course, was the case with Conquistador Cielo. He was a miler, but on that memorable day of the Belmont Stakes, he was in razor-sharp condition, he was the primary speed horse in the field and he caught a speed-conducive muddy track that he loved. The result: an incredible 14-length victory.

Dixie Brass too might find the perfect conditions awaiting him in the Belmont. There is no other front-runner in the field. All of the contenders -- A.P. Indy, Pine Bluff and Casual Lies -- like to come from slightly off the pace -- and Pezua could be in front by as many lengths as he wanted. Moreover, there has rarely been a Triple Crown series so lacking in overall talent. In my system of speed figures, the winning numbers for the Derby and Preakness were 107 and 104 -- far below even mediocre years of the past. Dixie Brass’ last two victories earned him figures of 111 and a 108.

He could have another edge too. There is a possibility of rain Saturday, and Dixie Brass loves mud. His authoritative victory in the Swift came over a sloppy track, and as a 2 year old he had won his racing debut by 11 lengths in the slop. The chance of catching an off track might sway Brida to change his mind; he and the owner will consult the weather forecast, and they might enter Dixie Brass with the intention of running only if the track is wet. The prospect of seeing a mud-loving speed horse open a huge early lead over a speed-favoring muddy track is something that even a conservative trainer would find hard to resist.