COMMENTARY / PRO BASKETBALL : A Crystal-Ball Gaze at the NBA

Let’s skip ahead a few months, leaping past weeks of discussions about salary caps, restructured contracts, unrestricted free agents, offer sheets and the rest of the new sports lingo of the 1990s.

It’s the eve of the start of the 1992-93 National Basketball Assn. season and multimillionaire Shaquille O’Neal is the pivotal Magic man in Orlando, Hakeem Olajuwon still is a Houston Rocket, Charles Barkley’s golf game has been perfected in Phoenix and we are ready to see what effect the 1992 draft will have on the season. Here are some predictions:

* Orlando, blinded by O’Neal’s aura, soon will regret that it re-signed free agent Stanley Roberts during the summer. In an era in which the big man’s role in the NBA has been greatly diminished, quickness--not size--is the nucleus of any winning team. Roberts and O’Neal might have been a nice duo 10 years ago but not now. The Magic would have been better advised to have signed Roberts, then traded him to get some much-needed help for O’Neal. But this is the type of personnel decision that made the Magic a lottery team in the first place.

There also will be some disappointment with O’Neal in the early weeks, thanks to inaccurate analyses of his abilities. Ever since O’Neal declared for the draft, the rush to compare him with every great center who ever played in the NBA has resulted in a distorted picture of this man-child. Wait a second here. This is the same guy whose main offensive move is a power dunk. He has no touch on his jump shot and no reliable “go-to” move.

He will need two or three years of offensive development. Until then, his major contributions will come from rebounding and shot blocking. But advertisers are so eager to find another player in Michael Jordan’s charismatic class that they have already anointed O’Neal a superstar. How else do you explain $4 million in endorsements even before he was drafted?

First-round picks Walt Williams (the Sacramento Kings) and Harold Miner (the Miami Heat) will develop into stars with far greater impact on the league than presently expected. We have to be careful here because we are about to bound into hallowed turf, but Williams has the ability and the creativity to bring back memories of Magic Johnson.

No, he isn’t another Johnson--let’s not fall into the same O’Neal-Is-The-Next trap--but watch him carefully. He has the same awkward open-court movement as Magic, makes eye contact with teammates in a similar way and has the same anticipation. And his shot isn’t very pretty either. What he doesn’t have, what perhaps no one else has ever had, is Johnson’s overwhelming obsession to win.

But Williams, who was available to Sacramento in the seventh spot, will give the Kings a presence the franchise has never enjoyed. He will be fun to watch, he will be productive and he eventually will be viewed as a steal in a draft where too many general managers spent too much time outthinking themselves.

In the weeks before the draft, Miner slipped from an early first-round pick to the 12th spot in the round. If the draft had been a month later, who knows where he would have gone.

There are legitimate questions about him, particularly his habit of taking forced, out-of-control shots. The result has been a less-than-attractive field-goal percentage. But a combination of more maturity and a firm coaching hand should correct these weaknesses.

What doesn’t need any fixing is Miner’s natural ability to be exciting and dominating. Too often, we hear the cliche, “He plays bigger than he really is.” But after watching Miner perform, it is difficult to remember sometimes that he is only 6-4. He has the kind of leaping ability that made David Thompson so wonderful to behold.

If--and admittedly it is a big if--he can learn to play with patience and let his unique skills unfold naturally, Miami will be wondering how so many teams could have passed him up.

* As much as Charlotte would have loved to have chosen O’Neal, the Hornets soon will discover Alonzo Mourning hardly was a bad second choice. What we saw in this draft was a reflection of the changes in the pro game. Teams now must consider loading up with what once were considered “tweeners,” players who ranged from 6-5 to 6-7 and didn’t seem suited either for shooting guard or small forward. But now these swingmen are ideal for the open-court style that is becoming so prevalent.

Years ago, clubs would have pounded Scottie Pippen out of the league. But in a league in which an inside game isn’t important anymore, Pippen has become one of the top 10 players by staying on the perimeter, slipping into a playmaker’s role when needed and flashing to the basket when the middle opens up. And if it gets too rough around the paint, he quickly escapes.

Mourning, who is 6-9, is an extension of Pippen, but as an inside player. He is quick and mobile and has superb speed. But he also has the defensive instincts of an old-time center, so he can be used by the Hornets as an insurance man to bail them out when they extend their defense and tempt opponents to drive to the basket. And like all Georgetown centers, he will be better in the pros.

* In real estate, it is “location, location, location.” In sports--and basketball is no exception--it is attitude, attitude, attitude. But in their drive to get better, some NBA teams forget this nugget. Milwaukee, for example. The Bucks know they have to improve in a hurry, but they should have gone about the rebuilding work with someone other than Todd Day. His athletic skills clouded Milwaukee’s vision. The Bucks soon will tire of his antics and hotdoggish attitude. Oh, he’ll have his moments, because he also is a prototypical player for this era--rangy, quick, mobile, able to shoot outside or dash inside. But Day had every reason to improve his immature act at Arkansas and didn’t. In the more stressful NBA, this inability to handle the pressures of the profession will be his downfall.

* The Philadelphia 76ers won’t be much better without Barkley in the short term than they were with him. But at least they will show they have a future, something that wasn’t possible as long as Barkley was around. Give the 76ers credit for at least trying to shake off the doldrums by adding three decent players--Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry and Andrew Lang--from the Suns and a quality No. 1 choice in Clarence Weatherspoon. And give credit to the other franchise-with-hope, Phoenix. The Suns weren’t going to win the Western Conference with the same team that was easily eliminated from the playoffs by Portland. Too many NBA owners and general managers, facing the same outlook, have decided to do nothing, which is why there are so many mediocre clubs in the league. The Suns chose to take a chance and deal for the exciting Barkley, who will benefit from the skills of teammate-playmaker Kevin Johnson.

But Phoenix still won’t win the West.