PRO FOOTBALL ’92 : AFC PREVIEW : Oilers Get the Nod in a Weak Field

When American Conference teams were losing the last eight Super Bowls, they didn’t always seem that bad. The Buffalo Bills would have won it two years ago if their kicker hadn’t missed a last-minute field goal. The Cincinnati Bengals were ahead in the last minute four years ago before Joe Montana concluded another comeback march.

From Jan. 24, 1982, through Jan. 26, 1992, the biggest difference between the conferences was simply that two AFC-trained NFC coaches, Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh, built seven of the 11 champions.

But that doesn’t explain what’s going on now. Previously, there has been a perception that the NFC is the stronger conference. This year, it appears reality has caught up with the perception:

Most of pro football’s good young teams are rising in the NFC: Dallas, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Atlanta, Detroit and, perhaps, the Rams.

Most of the good young running backs are in the NFC: Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and Ricky Ervins.

Most of the good young quarterbacks are coming up in the NFC: Troy Aikman, Chris Miller and Mark Rypien.

If the AFC has become the conference of the old quarterback--Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, John Elway, Bernie Kosar and Dan Marino--it could still produce a Super Bowl champion if one of those established stars had more of a team with him.

But of the contenders, only Houston has hired an NFC-style defense. And so the Oilers, with Moon at quarterback, stand slightly above the others in the AFC pack as the NFL’s 73rd season begins.

“Houston has the most defensive talent and the most explosive offense,” Dick Steinberg, vice president of the New York Jets, said this week.

Said Pittsburgh Steeler Coach Bill Cowher: “The Oilers have the most ability, and the most confidence.”

Walsh, looking back from his new office at Stanford, said: “It should be Houston and Buffalo in the AFC championship game. The only trouble I have with the Oilers is their tendency to unravel toward the end of the season.”

They unraveled last year when Elway struck late in a playoff game at Denver and led the Broncos to a 26-24 comeback victory.

Next, in a 10-7 AFC championship game at Buffalo, Denver couldn’t handle the Bills. And, finally, Buffalo didn’t even bother Washington in a 37-24 Super Bowl game that was not that close until the last minute.

“This time, I think you can look for the NFC to whomp them again,” said CBS analyst John Robinson, the former USC and Ram coach.

Does any AFC club have a chance?

Last year, the Oilers had the best chance. They appeared to be the only AFC club that could have won the Super Bowl against the Redskins. The record shows that on Nov. 3, they had the Redskins beaten in Washington until their kicker missed an easy field goal. Washington then won in overtime.

But this fall, with the Oilers a year older, the AFC seems clearly well behind the NFC’s pace.

The AFC’s top 10: 1. HOUSTON OILERS 1991 Record: 11-5 Quarterback: Warren Moon Coach: Jack Pardee (21-14)

Moon threw too many interceptions last season and the Oilers haven’t run as well as a run-and-shoot team should--even with Lorenzo White, a good one. But theirs is still the offense that bothers opponents the most, and it makes any courageous wide receiver a star. Defensively, four Oilers made the Pro Bowl. The loss of one of them, Ray Childress, was the blow that took Houston out of the playoffs. 2. BUFFALO BILLS 1991 Record: 13-3 Quarterback: Jim Kelly Coach: Marv Levy (61-34)

Kelly’s no-huddle approach will continue to overwhelm most defenses. Still, the good teams seem to have caught up with Buffalo. On offense, the Bills are too much like what they seem to be, a sandlot team with three standouts: runner Thurman Thomas, receiver Andre Reed and Kelly. New offensive coordinator Tom Bresnahan could change things. On defense, Bruce Smith’s absences with injuries have put too much load on Cornelius Bennett. 3. NEW YORK JETS 1991 Record: 8-8 Quarterback: Browning Nagle Coach: Bruce Coslet (14-19)

The scouts say that anyone listing this team third is reaching. But in this era, the Jets are a rarity, an AFC club on the rise. Their defense will keep them close if the offense fails. It could fail with either quarterback: Nagle, who is inexperienced, or Ken O’Brien, a 10-year veteran who still hasn’t won his teammates’ confidence. Though the Jets have helpful receivers, Al Toon and Rob Moore, it’s their no-name defense--which they had the wit to build first--that identifies them as a comer. 4. RAIDERS 1991 Record: 9-7 Quarterback: Jay Schroeder Coach: Art Shell (29-18)

With Schroeder, the Raiders have the look of a team that keeps giving a green young passer a chance. With Todd Marinovich, they might be wasting 1992--but if they could keep him out of trouble off the field, they’d have something in ’93. By the second half of ‘92, in fact, with intelligent game plans, he might do it. The Raiders have everything else: good defense, good backs, good receivers. Theirs is the NFL’s best run-and-shoot talent--if they were in a more modern offense. 5. DENVER BRONCOS 1991 Record: 12-4 Quarterback: John Elway Coach: Dan Reeves (109-71-1)

The Broncos are a living monument to what a pro club can accomplish with not much more than a superior coach, a unique quarterback, and a mile-high playing field. Although their fans worry about the offensive line, that might be an overrated problem for a team that has Elway. New back Sammie Smith should help the one-back sets once he gets off injured reserve, and Karl Mecklenburg, Dennis Smith and Steve Atwater still help the defense. But Reeves and their home field are their real strengths. 6. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 1991 Record: 4-12 Quarterback: Bob Gagliano Coach: Bobby Ross (0-0)

With either Gagliano or Stan Humphries at quarterback, the Chargers can survive the injury loss of John Friesz if Ross is an NFL coach. That’s the root question, and there is some evidence that he is. There is also a lot of evidence that recent Charger coaches have failed to get the most out of some of the NFL’s best talent: underrated running back Marion Butts, receivers such as Anthony Miller, defensive players Junior Seau, Leslie O’Neal, Gill Byrd, and many more. The Chargers may be charging. 7. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 1991 Record: 10-6 Quarterback: Dave Krieg Coach: Marty Schottenheimer (30-20-1)

The Raiders, Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs could make it a four-way finish in the AFC West. If the Chiefs could count on Krieg matching his best game for 16 games, the title would be theirs. He figures as an improvement on Steve DeBerg, provided the Chiefs’ horse-and-buggy offense doesn’t slow him down. Their secondary is aging, but they’re still a defensive load with Derrick Thomas, Neil Smith, Dan Saleaumua and a sound Percy Snow. 8. MIAMI DOLPHINS 1991 Record: 8-8 Quarterback: Dan Marino Coach: Don Shula (233-119-2)

The Dolphins these days don’t draft as well as they coach. And so after a long run near the top of pro football, Shula has been mostly a .500 leader lately. It’s all hardest on Marino, who, in his ability to play quarterback, is still a champion without a championship team to play on. The Dolphins in recent years haven’t been able to run or defend. Their ground force should improve this year with Bobby Humphrey, and they’ll defend better with John Offerdahl back. Will that be enough? 9. CLEVELAND BROWNS 1991 Record: 6-10 Quarterback: Bernie Kosar Coach: Bill Belichick (6-10)

The Browns have two of the ingredients of a title contender--a quarterback, Kosar, and a defensive leader, Belichick--but not this year. Kosar’s accuracy is such that he rarely throws interceptions, giving the Cleveland pass offense a significant advantage against any defense. Belichick is treading water, though, with halfback James Brooks, 33; tight end Mark Bavaro, 32, and center Jay Hilgenberg, 32. 10. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 1991 Record: 7-9 Quarterback: Open Coach: Tom Flores (91-56)

In a transition year, the Seahawks can be expected to use both of their young quarterbacks, Kelly Stouffer and Dan McGwire. One, they hope, will emerge. It is normally a mistake for any NFL team to keep two young quarterbacks in uniform--it is difficult enough to develop one--but at a critical moment of his career, Flores has saddled himself with this problem. As a coach, however, he is a proven winner. And his is a club with defensive and special-team strengths.