Shoppers May Be Cautious but Most Will Buy, Survey Shows

Orange County consumers may still lack confidence in the economic future, but most are not going to let that spoil their holidays, an Arthur Anderson survey of consumers in Southern California shows.

Christmas shopping is changing, however, as people work harder to stretch their dollars.

So discount stores, mail-order houses, warehouse clubs and manufacturers’ outlet shops are expected to get significant shares of most people’s gift budgets, the survey of 630 consumers in Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange counties found.

The telephone survey, conducted in November immediately after the presidential election, questioned 214 people in Orange County, 211 in Los Angeles County and 205 in San Diego County. It found that nearly 75% of the respondents--ranging from 70% in Los Angeles to 77.9% in San Diego--did not change their shopping plans because of the election outcome.

Among Orange County residents, none reported being discouraged by the election of Democrat Bill Clinton; 2.1% of the Los Angeles respondents and 3.8% of those in San Diego said that they are buying less this holiday season because they are discouraged by the election result.

Overall, 59.8% of the respondents said they will spend as much or more this season than last. The survey found that Orange County shoppers, with slightly higher household incomes than those in Los Angeles and San Diego, were most sanguine, with 64.5% planning to spend the same or more.

In another indicator of Orange County’s enthusiasm for the holiday season, the study found that 12.6% of the county’s shoppers plan to spend $500 or more on at least one holiday gift this year. That compared with 8.2% in Los

Angeles County and just 4.4% in San Diego County.

And that is good news to conventional retailers because the number of people who keep department stores such as May Co., Robinson’s and Bullocks on their shopping preference lists remains highest in Orange County--65.4% of respondents, compared with 60.2% in Los Angeles and 59.5% in San Diego.

In contrast, Orange County shoppers rely less on mail-order catalogues than their counterparts elsewhere in the Southland, with just 8.8% saying they will shop by mail this season, versus 11.2% in San Diego and 12.8% in Los Angeles.

And as they buy, the survey found, Orange County shoppers are more likely than people in Los Angeles and San Diego counties to pick up clothing, shoes, toys and games as holiday gifts and are less likely to select art objects.

Shopping: More or Less

A survey conducted last month indicates that Southern Californians are likely to spend about the same this holiday season as last. A majority plan to avoid the post-holiday credit crunch by paying cash for most gifts. County-by-county responses:

Are you planning to spend more, less or the same on your holiday purchases compared to last year?

Orange Los Angeles San Diego More 9.8% 8.0% 7.3% Less 35.5 46.0 39.0 Same 54.7 46.0 53.7

*Why some people are spending less:

Orange Los Angeles San Diego Buying for fewer people 5.3% 5.2% 3.8% Decrease in income 42.1 39.2 28.8 Discouraged by election 0.0 2.1 3.8 Fear of recession 22.4 30.9 23.8 Job loss in family 5.3 8.3 10.0

*How will you pay for most of your purchases?

Orange Los Angeles San Diego Cash or check 56.5% 52.5% 68.6% Credit card 43.5 47.5 31.4

*Are you planning to make any single gift purchase in excess of $500 this season? (Those answering “yes,” by income)

Orange Los Angeles San Diego $35,000 to $75,000 9.3% 9.5% 4.4% Over $75,000 16.0 6.8 4.4

*What types of items are you most likely to buy as gifts this year? (More than one answer is permissible)

Orange Los Angeles San Diego Clothing, shoes 86.0% 79.6% 85.4% Audio, video equipment 12.6 6.2 10.2 Toys, games 37.4 32.7 40.0 Electronic games 4.7 4.3 10.2 Candy, food 8.9 9.0 7.3 CDs, records 8.4 6.2 10.2 Fine jewelry, watches 11.7 10.9 8.8 Kitchen appliances 11.2 15.6 12.2 Art objects 3.7 5.2 4.9 Other 15.0 15.2 20.0

Source: Holiday Confidence Survey 1992, Arthur Anderson & Co. Retail Services Group