A Solid Year for Hollywood : 3rd Highest Gross Reached Despite Fewer Tickets Sold

Hollywood closed the books on the 1992 box-office year Sunday with an impressive New Year’s weekend that capped a year in which moviegoers bought almost $5 billion worth of tickets. But the total number of tickets sold dropped for the third straight year, possibly to the lowest number in 16 years.

If estimates for the year--calculated by various sources to be hovering above $4.9 billion--hold, it would be the film industry’s third best year in U.S. and Canadian box-office grosses. According to figures issued by the Motion Picture Assn. of America, the strongest box-office year was 1989 with $5.03 billion in tickets sold, followed by 1990 with $5.02 billion. The year just ended would narrowly surpass the $4.8 billion grossed in 1991.

One industry source, Entertainment Data Inc., put the grosses for the box-office year ended Sunday at about 3.8% ahead of 1991. And Daily Variety box-office expert A. D. Murphy late last week was predicting the total would hit at least $4.9 billion by the time he closes out the year on Thursday. The offical figures from the MPAA reflect Murphy’s, but are not usually released until February.

Grosses are the amount of money generated at the box office. That money in turn is split by varying formulas between the film companies and theater owners.

But although estimates for 1992’s box-office gross show an improvement over 1991 set against a continuing national recession, several Wall Street analysts who follow the film industry were cautious in their assessments. They noted most of the increase was due to slightly higher costs for tickets. They said the actual number of people going to the movies in theaters has again fallen below 1 billion tickets sold--making 1992 the third consecutive year of a downturn in the number of tickets sold, and perhaps the worst year since 1976.

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The year’s three top-grossing films were all sequels. In first was Warner Bros.’ “Batman Returns,” with $162.8 million, followed by 20th Century Fox’s “Home Alone 2: Lost in New York,” with an estimated $146 million through Sunday. In third place was another Warner Bros. film, “Lethal Weapon 3,” with $144.7 million.

Meanwhile, “Aladdin,” “A Few Good Men” and “Home Alone 2” earned a combined $50 million at the box-office from New Year’s Eve on Thursday to Sunday. (A report on New Year’s weekend box office appears on F6.)

Lisbeth Barron, vice president of research in New York for the investment firm of S. G. Warburg & Co., called the year about even with its predecessors. “There was fairly flat attendance . . . but it’s notable that, given the recession, the business holds up extremely well.”

Many felt the year was “flat” in the sense that the year produced no original megahits, such as the first “Batman” in 1989 or “Home Alone” in 1990, both of which approached $300 million in domestic grosses.

But a host of other movies broke $100 million during the 12 months, including the Walt Disney Co.’s “Sister Act” and “Aladdin,” Paramount Pictures’ “Wayne’s’ World,” TriStar Pictures’ “Basic Instinct,” and Columbia Pictures’ “A League of Their Own.”

In the $70-million to $90-million range were such titles as Disney’s “The Hand That Rocks the Cradle”; Paramount’s “Patriot Games” and “Boomerang”; Columbia’s “Bram Stoker’s Dracula”; Warners Bros.’ “Under Siege,” “Unforgiven” and “The Bodyguard”; and Fox’s “White Men Can’t Jump” and “The Last of the Mohicans.”

By and large, 1992 was a “stable year for the film business,” said Sony Pictures Entertainment Chairman Peter Guber. “The marketplace shows that if the productions are there, the people come.”

Guber and other executives and analysts interviewed as the year wound down said the film industry these days is looking beyond the domestic box office and its year-to-year statistical fluctuations in measuring the health of the movie industry.

“It’s anachronistic to measure movies only by domestic box office,” Guber added. “Sure, it doesn’t bode well if a film doesn’t do well in the first few weeks. But it’s not always the final part of the story.”

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The view is a recognition that the market for Hollywood movies does not begin and end with the U.S. and Canadian theatrical grosses--the films generate another $5 billion in grosses in other countries, and approximately $11 billion more from videocassettes and television sources. In addition, they often spearhead a variety of toys, fashion items and other products.

“It was a good, solid year, if not spectacular,” said Richard Cook, the president of Walt Disney Co.’s Buena Vista Distribution arm. “The last quarter has been so positive, hopefully it will carry over into the first quarter of 1993.”

But Cook had his eye beyond the first quarter and, in particular, on Disney’s current animated musical “Aladdin.” The fable, which features the voice of Robin Williams as the Genie in the magic lamp, has been one of the biggest attractions during the holiday season. According to Cook, it will ultimately be the company’s most profitable film released during 1992. He based his prediction on what he said is the film’s “evergreen staying power”--as a classic film in the Disney library, the feature film will have ample future sales and even spawn amusement park attractions.

Harold Vogel, film industry analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, said, “The year wasn’t all that impressive. . . . But this has been a somewhat more profitable year for the studios. We saw in ’91 that (production) costs were quite excessive. In ‘92, the spending patterns were curbed.”

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According to Barron, indications are that Disney may end up the most profitable of the studios for the year, despite poor results from “Medicine Man” and the costly flop “Newsies.” “Disney is revisiting its strategy of the ‘80s,” she said. “It’s making sure budgets are as low as they want them to be. They’re not using the big-name talent and they’re taking control.” She cited the low-budgeted “3 Ninjas,” “Encino Man” and “The Mighty Ducks,” none of which had major name stars but found surprisingly big audiences.

“Clearly, Warner Bros. had a good year, too,” added Barron, noting its five major hit films in 1992, but saying Spike Lee’s “Malcolm X,” which cost $35 million and has grossed $40 million so far, is a disappointment.

Universal Pictures had strong results from “Fried Green Tomatoes,” which, although released in 1991, earned the bulk of its $82-million gross in 1992. Initially, Universal’s release of the $62-million Tom Cruise-Nicole Kidman period drama “Far and Away,” directed by Ron Howard, appeared disappointing. But the film eventually brought in $58 million in this country and has done respectable business abroad, Universal reported.

Despite “Home Alone 2” and “Last of the Mohicans,” 20th Century Fox Film Corp. has had better years, analysts agreed. Its chairman, Joe Roth, who can take credit for the hits, nevertheless departed to go into independent production at Disney. Fox’s other two holiday films are “Hoffa,” starring Jack Nicholson, which is foundering at the box office, and “Toys,” with Robin Williams, a major disappointment.

At Paramount Pictures, where Sherry Lansing replaced Brandon Tartikoff as chairman in November, the pace and success rate declined in 1992, after dominating Christmas, 1991, with “The Addams Family” and “Star Trek VI.” Paramount’s biggest 1992 hits were the off-beat comedy “Wayne’s World” and the Harrison Ford thriller “Patriot Games.” The Ridley Scott film about Columbus, “1942: Conquest of Paradise,” was a big clinker, and the current Steve Martin movie, “Leap of Faith,” is fading fast.

Sony’s two divisions, Columbia and TriStar, produced some of the year’s biggest-budgeted films, and Columbia in particular enjoyed a strong finish with “Bram Stoker’s Dracula” and “A Few Good Men.” TriStar’s biggest hit, in a slim year, was the release of independent Carolco Pictures’ sexual thriller “Basic Instinct,” starring Michael Douglas and Sharon Stone.

But among the year’s costlier flops, two of the biggest were Columbia’s “Radio Flyer” and “Hero,” at budgets of $40 million each. On the other hand, Columbia also delivered several low-budget movies that brought in hefty grosses compared to cost. Among them: Damon Wayans’ comedy “Mo’ Money,” which took in $40 million versus a production outlay of $14 million, and Robert Redford’s $8-million “A River Runs Through It,” which has taken in $35 million.

Guber said “Hero,” which starred Dustin Hoffman, Geena Davis and Andy Garcia, was a surprise failure because it had tested so well. “Whether it was the marketing, I don’t know, but it was really sad for me because I tremendously enjoyed it.” He predicted the movie would find success overseas with new marketing approaches and a new title in some countries.

“There’re no guarantees. This is a business that if you cannot take that kind of risk with those ingredients (Hoffman, Davis, Garcia) you shouldn’t be in it.”

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As Hollywood takes stock of 1992, one internal ritual persists: The competitive major film studios are locked into a debate about who is No. 1.

The debate is about how to gauge market share. Ranked individually, some industry analysts place Warner Bros., propelled by “Batman Returns” and “Lethal Weapon 3,” in first place with a 19.8% market share. Second is Disney with 19.7%.

Most analysts still refer to Sony Pictures’ Columbia and TriStar divisions separately. But Sony says its three distributors--Columbia, TriStar and the art-film oriented classics division, which distributed the much-lauded “Howards End”--should be counted as one. If so, Sony would be the leader in Hollywood with a market share of 20.1%--made up mostly by Columbia’s 14% and TriStar’s 8% market share.

Whichever way it is added up, most note that very little separates the market leaders.