Ridership Forecasts Have Track Record of Peaks, Valleys : Transportation: Estimates are optimistic in planning stages and plummet before opening day to allow room to exceed expectations, experience across U.S. shows.

As they were planning Los Angeles’ new subway a decade ago, officials boasted of a swift train that would draw 376,000 riders daily in the year 2000. Four years later, they pared down that projection.

Today, officials predict 112,000 riders in 2000--less than a third of their first estimates.

Such is the fine art of ridership projections, where numbers seem to reach a high point before communities buy off on a transit system and then plummet so planners look good when the estimates are surpassed.

“As people push for the line, ridership goes up. When it’s approved, that will be the highest ridership number you ever see. As it gets closer to the start, people see the assumptions are not accurate and ridership goes down,” said one Southern California Rapid Transit District official, who requested anonymity. “The day before it opens, when the reporter calls, the number is the worst . . . leaving a nice big margin so you can look really good.”

Although the Red Line subway is never expected to pay for itself, ridership remains the benchmark for the success of this or any transit system. But even the most authoritative experts acknowledge that projecting ridership for transportation projects at its best is educated guesswork. At worst, the estimates are one part of an elaborate shell game to persuade the public that the project is worth the billions spent on it. When it opens today, officials say they expect the Red Line to draw 7,800 passengers a day on the first 4.4-mile segment, which stops at Union Station, the Civic Center, Pershing Square, 7th and Flower streets, and MacArthur Park.

The initial figures are low because there are few important destination points in the first segment. Most passengers will be transferring from the Blue Line trolley, Metrolink trains or taking a short hop because, for instance, they are going to lunch. At completion, the Red Line will cost $5.3 billion and stretch 22.7 miles from downtown to North Hollywood.

In 1983--as officials attempted to build support for the system--they estimated that the Red Line would draw 376,000 daily subway riders in 2000. Four years later, the route changed, shortened by just less than one mile, and the ridership number dropped. Today, on the same route, officials predict 112,000 passengers daily.

A similar pattern emerged with the Blue Line, which runs between Long Beach and downtown Los Angeles. On that line, ridership initially was projected to reach 54,800 passengers. By the time it opened, the projection shrank: 5,000 to 7,000. Almost three years old, the Blue Line draws 35,000--enabling officials to call it an unqualified success.

“Historically, what has happened is . . . people plan these things and made the mistake of being a little too aggressive in terms of what the potential ridership will be--there has been a pattern of that around the country,” said Neil Peterson, executive director of the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission.

“We try and put out numbers that people think are realistic,” added Peterson, who noted that he joined the agency after the early ridership projections were devised.

The problem with fluctuating, or questionable ridership projections has occurred nationwide, experts say. In a study of 10 transit lines conducted for the Department of Transportation, all 10 carried fewer riders--usually between 60% and85%--than had been originally forecast. And virtually all systems cost substantially more to build and operate than had been projected.

“People backpedal in these things; it is a common syndrome with public works projects. People get excited and they are very optimistic--then reality sets in,” said Donald Pickrell, chief economist for the Volpe Center, a branch of the Department of Transportation, and author of one study. “The problem is officials are choosing among a variety of projects on the basis of these forecasts.”

In Miami, officials had originally predicted a daily ridership of 202,000; today, 51,000 passengers ride each day. That ridership estimate, officials now agree, was predicated on a number of developments that never occurred, such as exorbitant gasoline prices and virtual elimination of downtown parking. The same firm that estimated Miami’s ridership--Schimpeler, Corradino Associates--predicted the initial ridership estimates for Los Angeles’ Red Line, which have been pared down significantly over the years.

Joe Corradino, now president of his own company, said the Miami forecasts reflected the information that the company received at the time from transit officials.

“When an economist can’t tell you what’s going to happen a week from now, when a weather forecaster can’t tell you what’s going to happen tomorrow, it’s obviously very hard for us to tell you what’s going to happen 15 years from now,” Corradino said.

Although ridership projections on the Red Line have dropped considerably from the ones officials originally offered up, they say that wooing Southlanders underground in a city known for its above-ground sprawl will still involve a tough campaign.

In an October survey of 1,000 people interviewed near Red Line stations, 51% did not know that the Red Line was an underground subway and 58% did not know when service would begin.

“The Red Line is the best kept secret in L.A. and one reason is because it’s underground,” said Stephanie Brady, Transportation Commission spokeswoman. “Metrolink trains are now our best advertising--people sitting in gridlock say: ‘Why aren’t I on that train?’ The subway will never have that advantage.”

To help woo riders, transportation officials expect to spend almost $1 million for a six-month period on advertising and community outreach efforts, Brady said. That money will pay for ads in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean and Philipino.

Critics of the Los Angeles Red Line, however, say the campaign will never succeed, which they attribute to the subway itself. The Red Line, these critics say, is a prime example of the “Field of Dreams” theory of transportation--a reference to the movie about a man who builds a baseball field amid acres of farmland when a disembodied voice tells him to.

“This is a classic in urban economics where planners say if you build it, they will come,” said Robert Kleinhenz of Cal State Fullerton. “My view is they will not come. There won’t be sufficient ridership to make it viable.”

Commuters are logical and practical, experts say. If the transit system is safe, fast and convenient, a certain number will use it. If the alternative has become onerous, if highways are hopelessly snarled in knots of traffic, parking is impossible, stiff tolls are charged on roads, gasoline prices are exorbitant, then more people will turn to public transportation, experts say. But most of these factors have not yet come to pass--which may well influence whether the subway is a success or failure.

Some Southlanders--such as David Thomas--are calculating the precious minutes that the Red Line will shave from their commutes.

Riding Metrolink trains, buses and Blue Line trolleys, Thomas spends four hours each day commuting from his Simi Valley home to his job in Compton.

After the Red Line opens today, Thomas intends to board it, even though the new subway will pare only 15 minutes from his commute by allowing him to skip the bus and ride solely on rail. But he hopes that it will prolong the life of his 27-year-old VW Beetle.

“It saves wear and tear on my car and at least once a month I would get cut off or run off the road so I figure I spend two hours commuting and able to live in reasonable fashion,” said Thomas, 41, a supervisor at a beeper repair shop.

Bob Saunders, an automobile club travel writer, also is prepared to become a believer. Saunders usually drives from his North Hollywood home to the Burbank Metrolink station, boards a train, gets off at Union Station and takes the No. 442 bus through downtown. The trip takes 75 minutes one way--or 15 minutes longer than when he drives his 1979 Buick Regal.

Once the Red Line opens, he will try to stay on rail for much of his trip--eliminating the bus ride. Saunders insists that the quality of the commute on rail cannot be compared to the drive.

“It’s like comparing a ride in a Pinto with a bad muffler system to a new Lincoln,” said Saunders, 41. “I’m not sure it’s going to work out better. But to me, it’s important to have another option that gets me off the damn street.”

Predicting Ridership

For the Red Line subway, estimated numbers of riders by the year 2000 have dropped sharply as the opening date approaches. Projections for the year 2000 1983: 376,000 1987: 324,000 1993: 112,000

Transit officials predict that 7,834 riders a day will board the Red Line in its first months of service. Here is who they expect on the subway:

Transfers from Metrolink: 13.3%

Transfers from Blue Line: 17.4%

Bus ride transfers: 18.3%

Walk-on passengers taking a short ride: 51.0%

Weekday Rail Passengers

In cities across the nation, the initial forecasts for mass transit rail projects often exceed the actual ridership. A look at some of them.

CITY FORECAST ACTUAL Washington 596,600 411,600 Baltimore 103,000 42,600 Miami 239,900 35,400 Buffalo 92,000 29,200 Portland 42,500 19,700 Sacramento 50,000 14,400