Surprises Looming in Oscar Race? : Movies: Most think that ‘Good Men,’ ‘Howards End’ and ‘Unforgiven’ will get nods. The wait will be over Wednesday when nominations are revealed.

“The Crying Game” has Hollywood playing the guessing game.

The question is: Will there be Oscar nominations for the critically acclaimed, independently produced movie that has surprised the film industry with its success?

The answer will come early Wednesday morning when the 4,600-member Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces Oscar nominations for 1992 films.

It’s one of the few questions this Oscar season. At this point, most observers would be surprised only if “A Few Good Men,” “Howards End” and “Unforgiven” are not nominated for best picture and in several other categories.

“In most years, there are maybe four shoo-in nominations for best picture, leaving only one slot for a surprise,” said producer Laurence Mark, who is based at the Walt Disney Studios. “This year, there seem to be three that are shoo-ins. But that leaves two slots open, so the chances for surprises are strong.”

Mike Medavoy, the chairman of TriStar Pictures, who has green-lighted or been closely associated with seven best picture winners during his career, predicted the best picture field of five would be rounded out by “Scent of a Woman” and “The Crying Game.” He also expects the nods for “Howards End,” “Unforgiven” and “A Few Good Men.”

So far, the most honored films of 1992 have been the Merchant Ivory Production of the British drama “Howards End,” starring Emma Thompson and Anthony Hopkins, and actor-director Clint Eastwood’s Western “Unforgiven.” Both have won endorsements from film critics’ groups.

Director Rob Reiner’s “A Few Good Men,” which stars Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson, has not won any of the top critics prizes and was shut out at the recent Golden Globe Awards--an event that generates much publicity and sometimes foreshadows the Oscars. But “A Few Good Men” is regarded as the kind of highly polished, mainstream entertainment that represents Hollywood to world audiences, and so it is seen as a major Oscar contender.

“Scent of a Woman,” starring Al Pacino, was the surprise victor at the Golden Globe Awards, which are voted by the 85-member Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. Although the group remains an enigma to most of Hollywood and the general public, the Globe Awards over the years have given major film companies a useful promotional tool and have frequently paralleled Oscar nominations. For that reason, a number of persons believe “Scent of a Woman” will wind up a best picture nominee, and virtually all believe Pacino will be nominated for best actor.

“If ‘Scent’ is nominated for best picture,” said one source who was surprised about “Scent’s” victory at the Globes, “it will be a triumph for the foreign press.” The well-placed insider then suggested the pressure will be on in the future for Hollywood’s studios to court the foreign press even more. There has been talk that because some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. accepted free trips to New York for a “Scent of a Woman” publicity event, the movie won three Golden Globes. It is, however, not uncommon for studios to sponsor such press junkets.

“Don’t be surprised if next year they are offered free trips to Tahiti,” said the insider.

Other potential best picture nominees mentioned were “Aladdin,” director Spike Lee’s “Malcolm X” and director Robert Redford’s “A River Runs Through It.”

Disney Studios publicity vice president Terry Press, of course, is rooting for “Aladdin” but said it would be a surprise to her if it is nominated. “It would be nice if there were surprises so there would be a reason to watch the show, other than (host) Billy Crystal,” she said.

There appears to be little momentum for “Malcolm X,” said veteran Oscar watcher Pete Hammond, a former movie segment producer for TV’s “Entertainment Tonight” and now a talent executive for “The Arsenio Hall Show.” Hammond expects the nominations to follow those of the Directors Guild of America. The DGA nominated Robert Altman for “The Player,” Eastwood for “Unforgiven,” James Ivory for “Howards End,” Neil Jordan for “The Crying Game” and Reiner for “A Few Good Men.”

Hammond said he’d be surprised if Jack Nicholson pulled off two nominations, for best actor in “Hoffa” and supporting actor in “A Few Good Men.” “ ‘Hoffa’ has really faded as a contender,” Hammond said. But he said Nicholson is a likely supporting actor nominee.

However, two nominations for Pacino were expected--for actor in “Scent of a Woman” and supporting actor in “Glengarry Glen Ross.” “All the momentum, after the Golden Globes, is for Pacino,” said Hammond. Pacino has been nominated six times for an Oscar, but has never won.

“Inside Oscar” co-author Mason Wiley suggested that Robert Altman’s “The Player” and its leading actor Tim Robbins could receive nominations, especially after winning Golden Globes for best comedy film and best actor in a comedy.

Virtually everyone interviewed agreed that the race for best actress will be concentrated between Emma Thompson for “Howards End” and Susan Sarandon for “Lorenzo’s Oil.” The three other nominations seem to be up in the air. Other names bandied about are Whoopi Goldberg for “Sister Act,” Michelle Pfeiffer for “Love Field” and Mary McDonnell for “Passion Fish.” In such an undernourished year for women’s roles, even Sharon Stone’s steamy performance in “Basic Instinct” has been mentioned. “That would be a real surprise,” one observer quipped.

Wiley noted that even if “The Crying Game” is nominated for best picture, the fact that it is distributed by the independent Miramax Films, rather than one of Hollywood’s major studios, will work against its chances of winning. “Historically, a best picture winner has always been affiliated in some way with one of the majors, or such mainstream Hollywood producers as (David O.) Selznick or (Cecil B.) DeMille.” Wiley said he couldn’t be sure how “Howards End” would be perceived, since it is a Sony Classics release, but Sony also is the parent of the Columbia and TriStar studios.

One of the traditional benefits of Oscar nominations is what they can mean at the box office. With the exception of “Aladdin” and “A Few Good Men”--both of which have sold well above $100 million in tickets--the other potential best picture nominees have room for audience growth.

Among the others, “Unforgiven” has grossed $75 million, and could generate more business, according to some sources in the theatrical exhibition business. But they believe the real heat will be on the films that have had limited exposure so far: “The Crying Game,” which has grossed only $13.8 million, “Howards End” ($18 million) and “Scent of a Woman”($34 million).

Of course, it all depends on if they are nominated.