Clapton’s ‘Tears,’ Grammy Fears : WHO WILL WIN : Lack of previous recognition will combine with the emotional vote to boost Eric Clapton’s chances for the big awards

Grammy voters are instructed to cast their ballots based on quality alone, but everyone knows that emotion also plays a big part.

Emotion was a factor in the posthumous best album citation to John Lennon in 1982 and in last year’s sentimental salute to the music of Nat King Cole.

And emotion will play a role when the 35th annual Grammy ceremonies are held on Wednesday at the Shrine Auditorium. The beneficiary this time: Eric Clapton.

And it won’t just be a wave of sympathy because of the tragic death of Clapton’s 4-year-old son in a 1991 fall from a Manhattan high-rise. A little good old-fashioned guilt will also play a part.

Despite acclaimed work spanning three decades with such groups as the Yardbirds and Cream and subsequently as a solo artist, Clapton has won just two Grammys--the same number as, for example, the Starland Vocal Band, and one fewer than the creator of the Chipmunks.

Aside from his role in the all-star “Concert for Bangladesh” album, Clapton wasn’t even nominated for a Grammy until 1986--when he was cited for writing a song on the “Back to the Future” soundtrack.

Clapton’s Grammy fortunes are certain to change on Wednesday. The guitar legend is likely to win five awards--including best album for “Unplugged” and best single for “Tears in Heaven,” a poignant reflection on mortality and sorrow that he composed after his son’s death.

Clapton won’t be this year’s only multiple winner. The 6,800 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences (mostly artists, producers, songwriters and musicians) are expected to shower four awards on “Beauty and the Beast,” including best song.

Here are my predictions:

Best Single: The nominees are Clapton’s “Tears in Heaven,” Billy Ray Cyrus’ “Achy Breaky Heart,” Celine Dion and Peabo Bryson’s “Beauty and the Beast,” k.d. lang’s “Constant Craving” and Vanessa Williams’ “Save the Best for Last.”

The main reason that “Achy Breaky Heart” was even nominated is that it was listed first on the eligibility list of 198 singles. If the sing-song novelty hit actually wins , the academy can fold its tent.

“Beauty and the Beast” and “Save the Best for Last” will likely split the votes of those members who favor sleek, melodic pop/soul ballads.

“Constant Craving” is a much-admired single, but it wasn’t a big hit, peaking at No. 38 on the pop chart. That doesn’t necessarily kill its chances, but it sure doesn’t help.

That leaves the classy “Tears in Heaven,” which probably would have won on merit alone, but will be virtually unbeatable when emotion is factored in.

Best Album: The nominees are Clapton’s “Unplugged,” lang’s “Ingenue,” Annie Lennox’s “Diva,” U2’s “Achtung Baby” and the “Beauty and the Beast” soundtrack.

The stylish but relatively slight “Diva” was lucky just to be nominated.

“Beauty and the Beast” at least has some chance of winning. Thanks to the mega-selling video, Grammy voters with kids have heard the score countless times. Still, voters are unlikely to give their top honor to a Hollywood soundtrack that has so little connection to the mainstream pop-rock music industry.

Lang’s album could be a sleeper like Bonnie Raitt’s “Nick of Time,” the champ three years ago. Like Raitt before the 1990 Grammys, lang is a respected artist who has never gotten her due commercially. But being younger, lang hasn’t built up the network of friends and associates that Raitt had amassed in nearly 20 years in the music business.

U2 won this award five years ago with “The Joshua Tree.” But that may actually hurt their chances: No one has won twice in this category since Stevie Wonder in the mid-’70s. To many voters, “Achtung” was simply a case of another great album by a great band. But that’s not news.

Grammy voters prefer “event” albums--albums with a strong conceptual hook, like Paul Simon’s “Graceland,” a celebration of African rhythms, and Natalie Cole’s “Unforgettable,” a daughter’s homage to her dad.

The nominee with the strongest hook this year is “Unplugged,” which Clapton recorded for MTV’s series of acoustic concert specials. And the concept--a veteran rocker performing blues and rock songs acoustically, proving his versatility and the songs’ adaptability--is tailor-made for the academy’s aging yuppie membership.

Best Song: The nominees here are the same as for best single. This songwriters’ award favors ballads that have the potential to become standards. And “Beauty and the Beast,” which brought Alan Menken and the late Howard Ashman an Oscar for best song last year, is already well on its way.

Best New Artist: The nominees are Arrested Development, Billy Ray Cyrus, Sophie B. Hawkins, Kris Kross and Jon Secada.

Hawkins wasn’t able to follow up her debut hit, “Damn I Wish I Was Your Lover.” Arrested Development and Kris Kross are likely to split the academy’s rap vote--which isn’t that big to begin with. Secada’s “Just Another Day” single was widely admired, but it’s a bad sign that the balladeer wasn’t nominated in the pop male category.

That leaves Cyrus, a pop-country phenomenon whose debut album has sold more than 6 million copies. Critics will howl if Cyrus wins--even many academy officials will privately wince--but legions of achy-breaky dancers will be happy.

Best Pop Vocal Perfomance, Female: Lang’s win here for “Constant Craving” will make up for her being shut out in the three top categories. Her main competition is Williams’ “Save the Best for Last,” but even Williams would probably admit that lang can sing her under the table. Also: Mariah Carey’s “MTV Unplugged EP,” “Celine Dion,” Lennox’s “Diva.”

Pop Male: Clapton’s “Tears in Heaven” will be a runaway winner. Also: Peter Gabriel’s “Us,” Michael Jackson’s “Black or White,” Elton John’s “The One,” Lyle Lovett’s “Joshua Judges Ruth.”

Pop Group or Duo: Male-female duets have an edge in this category: Dion and Bryson’s “Beauty and the Beast” will be the fourth such pairing to win here since 1988. Also: Genesis’ “I Can’t Dance,” George Michael and Elton John’s “Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me,” Prince & the New Power Generation’s “Diamonds and Pearls,” Patty Smyth with Don Henley’s “Sometimes Love Just Ain’t Enough.”

Traditional Pop: Tony Bennett’s tribute to Frank Sinatra, “Perfectly Frank,” has the same sense of purpose and celebration as “Unforgettable,” last year’s winner in this category. This will be Bennett’s first Grammy in 30 years --since “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” was named best single of 1962. Also: Rosemary Clooney’s “Girl Singer,” “Michael Feinstein Sings the Jule Styne Songbook,” Bobby Short’s “Late Night at the Cafe Carlyle,” Nancy Wilson’s “With My Lover Beside Me.”

Rock Female: Tina Turner is to this category what Aretha Franklin is to the female R&B; contest--an automatic vote-getter. And at least Grammy voters are familiar with her version of Elton John’s “The Bitch Is Back” (from the “Two Rooms” tribute album), which is more than you can say for the competition: Melissa Etheridge’s “Ain’t It Heavy,” Lita Ford’s “Shot of Poison,” Alison Moyet’s “It Won’t Be Long” and Alannah Myles’ “Rockinghorse.”

Rock Group or Duo: U2, the most respected rock band of the last decade, will win here for the third time with “Achtung Baby.” Also: En Vogue’s “Free Your Mind,” Little Village’s “Little Village,” Los Lobos’ “Kiko,” Red Hot Chili Peppers’ “Under the Bridge.”

Hard Rock: Pearl Jam’s “Jeremy,” a single from its smash debut album, “Ten,” has a narrow edge in a wide-open contest. The Seattle band’s two main rivals are guilty of Grammy no-no’s: Nirvana (“Smells Like Teen Spirit”) garbles its lyrics; the Red Hot Chili Peppers (“Give It Away”) pose in the buff. Also: Alice in Chains’ “Dirt,” Faith No More’s “Angel Dust,” Guns N’ Roses’ “Live and Let Die.”

Metal: With perpetual winner Metallica between albums, there’s an opening for Megadeth--which is fronted by former Metallica member Dave Mustaine. Megadeth has an edge here: The band is nominated for a full album, “Countdown to Extinction,” while the other groups are represented with individual tracks. Also: Helmet’s “In the Meantime,” Ministry’s “N.W.O.,” Nine Inch Nails’ “Wish,” Soundgarden’s “Into the Void (Sealth).”

Alternative: The B-52’s have been nominated twice for best pop group, so they have a higher Grammy profile than their rivals in this less competitive category. The only hitch is that the trio’s “Good Stuff” album was a bit of a letdown after the widely admired “Cosmic Thing.” Also: the Cure’s “Wish,” Morrissey’s “Your Arsenal,” Tom Waits’ “Bone Machine,” XTC’s “Nonsuch.”

R&B; Female: After passing over Williams’ “Save the Best for Last” in the best single and pop female categories, Grammy voters will want to give her a consolation prize. So she’ll probably win here for the title track of her album, “The Comfort Zone.” Also: Oleta Adams’ “Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me,” Whitney Houston’s “I Belong to You,” Chaka Khan’s “The Woman I Am,” Shanice’s “I Love Your Smile.”

R&B; Male: Michael Jackson’s recent media blitz should boost his chances here with “Jam.” It would be his first Grammy in a pop, rock or R&B; category since his 1984 “Thriller” juggernaut. His chief competition is from two artists who have been hailed as the new Michael Jackson--Bobby Brown (“Humpin’ Around”) and Tevin Campbell (“T.E.V.I.N.”). Also: Peabo Bryson’s “Lost in the Night,” Al Jarreau’s “Heaven and Earth.”

R&B; Group or Duo: Boyz II Men were long-shot winners here last year--and that was before “End of the Road” set a rock-era record for weeks at No. 1. With their new, higher profile, the quartet paces the pack this year, despite fierce competition--especially from En Vogue (“Funky Divas”). Also: Arrested Development’s “People Everyday,” Mariah Carey and Trey Lorenz’s “I’ll Be There,” Luther Vandross and Janet Jackson’s “The Best Things in Life Are Free.”

Rap Solo: Hammer’s witty “Addams Groove” was featured in the box-office smash “The Addams Family,” so it was heard by even rap-wary Grammy voters. Hammer will also be helped by his image as a wholesome, positive role model--why do you think D.J. Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince won all those rap Grammys? Also: LL Cool J’s “Strictly Business,” Marky Mark’s “You Gotta Believe,” Queen Latifah’s “Latifah’s Had It Up 2 Here,” Sir Mix-a-Lot’s “Baby Got Back.”

Rap Group or Duo: Arrested Development’s “Tennessee,” one of last year’s most critically admired singles in any genre, is the front-runner, though Kris Kross’ bouncy pop smash “Jump” will also have strong support. Also: the Beastie Boys’ “Check Your Head,” House of Pain’s “Jump Around,” Public Enemy’s “Greatest Misses.”

Country Female: Last year’s champ, Mary-Chapin Carpenter, is likely to win again with her amorous, high-spirited “I Feel Lucky.” Carpenter’s two main rivals, Wynonna Judd (“Wynonna”) and Reba McEntire (“The Greatest Man I Never Knew”) are both distributed by MCA, which may split their votes. Also: Lorrie Morgan’s “Something in Red,” Pam Tillis’ “Maybe It Was Memphis.”

Country Male: For the third year in a row, it’s a showdown between America’s top record seller, Garth Brooks, and Nashville’s favorite citizen, Vince Gill. In their hearts, voters probably prefer Gill (“I Still Believe in You”), but they recognize that Brooks’ historic success has boosted the entire country scene. So Brooks (“The Chase”) is likely to win for the second straight year. Also: Cyrus’ “Achy Breaky Heart,” Randy Travis’ “Better Class of Losers,” Travis Tritt’s “Lord Have Mercy on the Working Man.”

Country Group or Duo: Brooks & Dunn, which had one of last year’s biggest country hits with the exuberant “Boot Scootin’ Boogie,” are likely to fill the void here left by the breakup of the Judds. Also: Alabama’s “American Pride,” “Emmylou Harris & the Nash Ramblers at the Ryman,” the Kentucky HeadHunters’ “Only Daddy That’ll Walk the Line,” Restless Heart’s “When She Cries.”