An Early Look at the NCAA Tournament

So many teams, so few NCAA tournament openings. Staff writer Gene Wojciechowski presents a countdown to 64 invitations:

PACIFIC 10 IN: Arizona, UCLA. ON THE BUBBLE: Arizona State, California. PREDICTION: Three. Bruin Coach Jim Harrick says the conference deserves four bids. Our guess is that Harrick told referee Dick Paparo that very same thing in Sunday’s game against Duke, which is why the UCLA coach was immediately ejected. Actually, the league might get four postseason invitations: three to the NCAA and one (either Cal or Arizona State) to the NIT.

BIG WEST IN: Nevada Las Vegas, New Mexico State ON THE BUBBLE: Cal State Long Beach. PREDICTION: Two. Long Beach is good enough to beat Kansas at fabled Allen Fieldhouse and bad enough to lose five of its last nine games, including a killer defeat by Cal State Northridge. The NCAA Basketball Committee isn’t fond of teams that stagger toward season’s end. Unless the 49ers win the Big West tournament or at least reach the finals, they are NIT bound.

WEST COAST IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: The conference tournament winner goes to the NCAA. Pepperdine is the favorite, followed by Gonzaga, Santa Clara and San Francisco. PREDICTION: One. It will be the Waves.

ATLANTIC COAST IN: North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, Wake Forest. ON THE BUBBLE: Georgia Tech and Virginia. PREDICTION: Six. Georgia Tech is the Cal State Long Beach of the ACC. But unlike the 49ers, Tech has beaten enough big-time teams (victories at Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest and NCAA-invitee-to-be Tennessee Chattanooga and at home against Louisville) to feel confident about its postseason plans. Virginia might have to throw itself on the mercy of the selection committee. Committee chairman Tom Butters, a Duke and fellow ACC man, will find a way to sneak the Cavaliers in.

ATLANTIC 10 IN: Massachusetts, George Washington. ON THE BUBBLE: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Rhode Island. PREDICTION: Three. Temple, which ducks no one when it comes to scheduling, has victories over Florida, Massachusetts, Boston College, Tulane and Memphis State, among others. The Owls probably won’t win 20 games, but they don’t need to.

BIG EAST IN: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Pittsburgh. ON THE BUBBLE: Connecticut, Boston College, Providence. PREDICTION: Four. If these same teams played under the banner of, say, the Southland Conference, there would be two NCAA invitations--tops. But because it is the mighty Big East--favorite of the East Coast TV market--this mediocre league is probably looking at four and perhaps--gulp--five bids. If it’s five, Providence is a goner. If it’s four, add Boston College to the no-show list. And just imagine how pleased the Eagles will be if they get to the Big East tournament, an NCAA bid in the balance, and are beaten by Syracuse in the first round. Despite the Orangemen’s being on NCAA probation and ineligible for the NCAA tournament, Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese pushed for their inclusion in the league tourney. It was a dumb move then, an even dumber move if it costs the conference an at-large bid.

BIG EIGHT IN: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Nebraska. ON THE BUBBLE: Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State. PREDICTION: Six. Oklahoma State Coach Eddie Sutton, an actual voice of reason in these times of shilling for your respective conference, figures five or six Big Eight teams will make it. Agreed. The most vulnerable? Kansas State. The guess is that all six will receive NCAA invitations.

BIG SKY IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Idaho or Boise State should win the conference tournament, but don’t rule out Weber State. PREDICTION: One. The automatic bid will be Boise State’s.

BIG SOUTH IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Towson State has already clinched the regular-season conference championship, but the NCAA bid goes to the tournament winner. That means Coastal Carolina and Campbell College, which played Duke in the first round of the NCAA last year, still have a chance. PREDICTION: One. Easy. Towson State.

BIG TEN IN: Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue. ON THE BUBBLE: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota. PREDICTION: Seven. Iowa State’s Johnny Orr says that if Wisconsin makes it, then every team in the Big Eight deserves an NCAA bid. Orr, obviously, has been in Ames too long. If the Badgers win two of their next four games, they’re safe as kittens. If the committee wants seven Big Ten teams--and that isn’t out of the question--take Minnesota over Michigan State.

COLONIAL IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: James Madison has won the regular-season title, but Old Dominion and Richmond are good enough to sneak away with the conference tournament championship. PREDICTION: One. In a minor upset, Old Dominion.

GREAT MIDWEST IN: Cincinnati, Memphis State, Marquette. ON THE BUBBLE: Alabama Birmingham. PREDICTION: Three. Do you believe in miracles? Alabama Birmingham had better hope for one, because that’s the only way it will get to the NCAA. The league gets no automatic bid.

IVY IN: Penn. ON THE BUBBLE: Nobody. PREDICTION: One. At last, not a single written or spoken word about Princeton Coach Pete Carril and his crummy luck in NCAA draws. Thank goodness.

METRO ATLANTIC IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Niagara or Manhattan. PREDICTION: One. The conference tournament winner gets the bid, which means we’ll take Manhattan.

METRO IN: Louisville, Tulane. ON THE BUBBLE: Virginia Commonwealth. PREDICTION: Two. If Virginia Commonwealth wins the tournament, the committee is stuck with three bids.

MID-AMERICAN IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Ball State, Miami. PREDICTION: One. Winner of the league tournament takes all. The pick: Miami, because of its tougher schedule.

MID-CONTINENT IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Cleveland State, Wright State. PREDICTION: One. It shouldn’t be close--Cleveland State should win the conference tournament and get the bid.

MID-EASTERN IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Coppin State. PREDICTION: One. Coppin State is undefeated in the conference and has won the title. A league tournament championship will be nothing more than a formality.

MIDWESTERN IN: Xavier. ON THE BUBBLE: Evansville. PREDICTION: One. If Evansville wins the conference tournament, the league gets two bids. It won’t happen.

MISSOURI VALLEY IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Southwest Missouri State. PREDICTION: One. Southern Illinois.

NORTH ATLANTIC IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Drexel, Northeastern, Delaware. PREDICTION: One. Drexel.

NORTHEAST IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Rider, Wagner. PREDICTION: One. Rider has clinched the regular-season title. No reason to think it won’t do the same in the conference tournament.

OHIO VALLEY IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Tennessee State, Murray State, Eastern Kentucky. PREDICTION: One. Tennessee State.

PATRIOT IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Bucknell, Holy Cross. PREDICTION: One. Bucknell won the regular-season title, but take Holy Cross in the tournament.

SOUTHEASTERN IN: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Arkansas. ON THE BUBBLE: Louisiana State, Florida. PREDICTION: Four. LSU will probably finish with more victories than Florida and a higher finish in its SEC division. But Florida played a tougher schedule and had more quality victories. If we’re the committee, we take Florida, based mostly on LSU’s 0-6 record against top-25 teams.

SOUTHERN IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Tennessee Chattanooga, Georgia Southern, East Tennessee State. PREDICTION: One. Tennessee Chattanooga.

SOUTHLAND IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Northeast Louisiana, Nicholls State, Texas San Antonio. PREDICTION: One. Another easy one--Northeast Louisiana.

SOUTHWEST IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Rice, Southern Methodist, Houston. PREDICTION: Two. Unless Rice wins the conference tournament, Houston and SMU are the choices.

SOUTHWESTERN IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Jackson State, Southern, Alabama State. PREDICTION: One. For the chance to guard Lindsey Hunter, root for Jackson State.

SUN BELT IN: New Orleans. ON THE BUBBLE: Western Kentucky. PREDICTION: One. If Western Kentucky doesn’t win the Sun Belt tournament, it’s off to the NIT.

TRANS AMERICA IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Nobody. PREDICTION: Zilch.

WESTERN ATHLETIC IN: Utah, Brigham Young. ON THE BUBBLE: New Mexico. PREDICTION: Three. Tough call. New Mexico has beaten New Mexico State twice but still needs a couple of quality victories to guarantee a bid. A victory against Utah tonight or BYU on Saturday should be enough.

INDEPENDENTS IN: To be determined. ON THE BUBBLE: Wisconsin Milwaukee, College of Charleston. PREDICTION: None. These teams will be invited to the NCAA the same day Dick Vitale goes a waking hour without uttering a word.