THE TIMES POLL : Riordan, Woo Appear Headed for June Runoff

Jockeying for the lead in the Los Angeles mayoral race, Richard Riordan, the multimillionaire lawyer and investor who promises to run City Hall like a business, appears headed for a June showdown with his political opposite number, City Councilman Michael Woo, who has held fast to his support among minorities and white liberals.

According to a Los Angeles Times Poll, Riordan and Woo are virtually tied atop the field of 24 candidates. Among all voters interviewed, Woo leads Riordan 26% to 23%. But Riordan is ahead 26% to 22% among voters most likely to cast ballots in the April 20 primary. The top two vote-getters will qualify for the June 8 runoff.

Just more than a week before Election Day, no one else in the race is making a serious run at overtaking Riordan or Woo. And in the two months since the last Times Poll, most of the city’s voters have made up their minds; the ranks of the undecided have fallen from 42% to 13%.

Conducted Wednesday, Thursday and Friday by Times Poll Director John Brennan, the survey was based on interviews with 813 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The sample of 390 likely voters has a margin of error of 6 points.

As Riordan ascended in the polls, Woo, with substantially less campaign money--$2.6 million compared to Riordan’s $4.2 million--did more than hold his own.

Despite challenges by two prominent African-American candidates, Woo’s support rose among black voters, going from 34% to 46%. On the Westside his support doubled. In central Los Angeles it held steady. And in the San Fernando Valley, Riordan’s presumed stronghold as well as the home base for several other candidates, Woo picked up enough support to stay in second place.

The poll shows Riordan strongest among Republicans and white conservatives and moderates, while Woo does best among African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, white liberals and other Democrats. Riordan is more popular with people over 40, and with those making more than $40,000. Woo is doing better with younger, less affluent voters.

Besides Riordan, the only other candidate to enjoy a spurt of popularity recently is former Deputy Mayor Linda Griego, who has come from virtually nowhere in the polls to 9% and third place in the race. Griego’s upswing has not put her in contention but it may attest to the effectiveness of recent TV ads that make much of the fact that she is the only woman among the leading candidates and that she favors abortion rights.

Just behind Griego are a pair of veteran politicians--state Assemblyman Richard Katz and City Councilman Joel Wachs, each with 7%. Heavily outspent by Riordan and outmaneuvered by Woo, Katz and Wachs even lag behind on their home turf in the San Fernando Valley.

Trailing badly are City Councilman Nate Holden at 5%, lawyer Stan Sanders at 4%, businessman Nick Patsaouras and City Councilman Ernani Bernardi at 2%, Cal State Northridge professor Julian Nava and former Deputy Mayor Tom Houston each at 1%.

As the city awaits verdicts in the Rodney G. King civil rights trial, voters were unimpressed with the abilities of any of the mayoral hopefuls to control the city in a civil emergency. Woo, with 13%, and Riordan, with 10%, received the most votes of confidence. More than 60% of those interviewed said they did not have strong faith in any of the candidates’ abilities to handle a crisis, or they were not sure.

Riordan’s rapid rise from 4% in early February follows a huge infusion of cash, including $3 million of his own money, into a campaign that has tattooed the city with yard signs, inundated the mails with dazzling brochures and peppered the airwaves with commercials that portray the 62-year-old Princeton graduate and Korean War veteran as a no-nonsense businessman who will put the city’s fiscal affairs in order while restoring safety to the streets.

Running on the theme “Tough Enough to Turn L.A. Around,” Riordan, a Republican, has paid special attention to Republican voters, targeting them with mail that boasts of endorsements by former President Ronald Reagan and Jack Kemp, who was secretary of Housing and Urban Development under former President George Bush.

Riordan is no stranger to government, having served on city commissions, contributed heavily to the campaign coffers of city and county officials, and profited from contracts between his law firm and local government agencies. But he has done a better job than any of the candidates of portraying himself as an outsider running against politics as usual. Although Riordan does not publicly liken himself to Ross Perot, the billionaire businessman who ran for President last year, comparisons are inevitable and usually work to Riordan’s advantage.

“Neither Perot or Riordan seem like politicians to me. They seem like they’re on a mission,” said John Paul, a poll respondent from Los Feliz who works in the music business. “I have more faith in them than in the other typical politicians.”

Riordan was expected to do well in the San Fernando Valley and he has. With just less than 30%, he has twice as much support there as Woo. However, Riordan can point to gains in virtually all parts of town. Since February, his support on the Westside (27%) has more than tripled and put him in a virtual tie with Woo. In central Los Angeles, a broad area that runs from the Hollywood Hills south to the Wilshire district and from Eagle Rock to downtown and beyond to Fairfax, Riordan’s popularity has climbed from 3% to just more than 20% and made him competitive with Woo’s 25%.

Riordan has even made inroads in South Los Angeles, where Woo and the two major African-American candidates, Holden and Sanders, were expected to split the vote. There, Riordan’s support went from virtually nothing in February to 10%--still far short of Woo’s 40%.

In a head-to-head contest with Woo, Riordan will have to continue to expand his base of support. His core constituency represents about 40% of the city’s voters, well short of the majority needed to win in June. Assuming he prevails in the primary, Riordan must project his appeal beyond those voters who feel the most ideologically comfortable with his campaign.

Riordan’s support is 90% white. But he insists that his basic message--that he will make the city safer and more hospitable to business--transcends race and class.

Still, he will have to sell it to a largely Democratic city and do it in the midst of attacks by labor leaders and inner-city activists who see Riordan not only as a throwback to Reaganomics but to the racially insensitive politics of the ruling plutocrats of old Los Angeles.

In his favor, Riordan appears to have a more loyal base than does Woo. According to the poll, 54% of Riordan’s supporters say they will stick with him while 57% of Woo’s backers say they might vote for someone else. Riordan’s base, made up of older and more conservative voters, historically is more likely to vote than Woo’s younger more liberal core constituency. That means that in a low turnout election, which would be dominated by high-propensity voters, Riordan could have an edge.

Moreover, Riordan is likely to fare better with absentee voters, who also tend to be older and more conservative. The poll shows that among probable absentees Riordan has 32% of the vote compared to Woo’s 21%. In next week’s primary, one in five ballots could be absentee, the poll found.

The poll also indicates that Riordan has antagonized fewer voters than Woo. Only 12% say they would not vote for Riordan under any circumstances, while 21% say they could not vote for Woo.

A Woo-Riordan matchup would focus to a great extent on the 50% of voters who are supporting other candidates in the primary.

According to the poll, Woo has an edge with those voters. When the poll asked the voters who were not supporting Woo and Riordan to name their second choice, 24% said Woo and 9% said Riordan.

The city’s Jewish voters--a crucial component of Mayor Tom Bradley’s coalition for more than 20 years--once again will have a key role to play. Making up about 15% of the voting population, their support, at the moment, is widely distributed among Woo, Wachs, Katz, Riordan and Griego. With 20%, according to the poll, Woo has the largest share of Jewish support. But Riordan, with 14%, clearly has some appeal.

Woo continued to gain ground despite the continual attacks he has faced from the moment he assumed front-runner status. He has weathered criticism that he has pandered shamelessly to minority voters, that he allowed his own Hollywood council district to deteriorate and that he played fast and loose with ethics and environmental laws that he had championed.

From the outset of his campaign Woo, 41, has sought to distance himself from other politicians running in the race--not an easy task given a career in government and nearly eight years on the City Council.

So far, his efforts at image building seem to have paid off.

“I like Woo’s youth and ideas. And he sounds more sincere and more upfront,” said poll respondent Ruben Flores, 36, a welder who lives in Eagle Rock. “He has a little more insight into the younger generation. The older generation politicians running for mayor don’t appeal to me. They remind me too much of politicians like Reagan and Mayor Bradley, people with more old-fashioned ideas who are all talk and no action.”

Times staff writer Miles Corwin contributed to this story.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 813 registered voters in the city of Los Angeles, by telephone, April 7 to 9. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin is somewhat higher. For example, for the sample of 390 likely voters, the error margin is plus or minus 6 points. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL: The Race for L.A. Mayor

Michael Woo and Richard Riordan are best positioned to qualify for a mayoral runoff, according to a Times poll conducted Wednesday through Friday. Since a February survey, Woo has climbed from 20% to 26% while Riordan has vaulted from 4% to 23% among all registered voters. Among likely voters, Riordan is preferred by 26%; Woo 22%. No other candidate is within striking distance of the leaders.

(The sample of Asian-American voters is too small to be broken out separately, but that group’s preferences are included as part of the results for all registered and likely voters.)

If the election for mayor of Los Angeles were being held today, whom would you like to see win?

All Registered Likely Voters Voters Anglo Black Latino Michael Woo 26% 22% 19% 46% 26% Richard Riordan 23% 26% 32% 1% 14% Linda Griego 9% 7% 9% 6% 18% Joel Wachs 7% 9% 9% 3% 8% Richard Katz 7% 8% 9% 2% 6% Nate Holden 5% 7% 3% 13% 3% Stan Sanders 4% 4% 1% 12% 2% Ernani Bernardi 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% Nick Patsaouras 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Tom Houston 1% 1% 1% -- -- Julian Nava 1% 1% 1% -- 7% Other -- -- -- 1% -- Don’t know 13% 12% 13% 14% 11%

Reg. Voters (Feb.2) Michael Woo 20% Richard Riordan 4% Linda Griego 2% Joel Wachs 8% Richard Katz 3% Nate Holden 6% Stan Sanders 1% Ernani Bernardi 2% Nick Patsaouras -- Tom Houston 2% Julian Nava 2% Other 3% Don’t know 42%

Are there any candidates running for mayor you will not support under any circumstances? (If yes) Who might they be? (Up to three replies accepted.)

All Reg. Voters Likely Voters Michael Woo 21% 27% Nate Holden 14% 19% Richard Riordan 12% 17% Joel Wachs 5% 7% Richard Katz 5% 5% Ernani Bernardi 4% 6% Linda Griego 3% 4% Tom Houston 2% 2% Julian Nava 1% 2% Nick Patsaouras 1% 2% Stan Sanders 1% 1% Other 2% 2% Ruling no one out 38% 28% Don’t know 15% 11%

Regardless of whom you support now, is there one candidate for mayor you think is particularly qualified to handle the situation in the city that has developed because of the trial of the four officers accused of violating Rodney King’s civil rights? (If yes) Which candidate is that? All Reg. Voters Michael Woo: 13% Richard Riordan: 10% Nate Holden: 3% Joel Wachs: 3% Richard Katz: 2% Stan Sanders: 2% Linda Griego: 1% Nick Patsaouras: 1% Ernani Bernardi: -- Tom Houston: -- Julian Nava: -- Other: 1% No one good: 40% Don’t know: 24% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll