NFC PREVIEW : A Lot Is Different, but Not Much at the Top

Don’t even think about asking the NFL how it spent its summer vacation.

The numbers are numbing.

One hundred and eight NFL players switched teams.

Two hundred and thirty-four unrestricted free agents enjoyed an average salary increase of 88.1%.

Eight players fled to the league’s smallest city, Green Bay.

Nineteen will be worn by Joe Montana of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Five million three hundred and fifty thousand dollars will be made by Steve Young. This year.

While enjoying the publicity generated by the wild ride through free agency, there is only one thing the NFL didn’t quite count on.

In predicting a Super Bowl champion, only two numbers matter.

One and zero.

One is the number of players in the 22-man starting lineup of last year’s world champion Dallas Cowboys who are no longer on the team.

With the injured Young due back any day now, zero is the number of offensive starters for the San Francisco 49ers who are no longer starting.

The league may have gone to great expense to remodel and redecorate the place, but let’s be honest. Once you walk inside, it still looks the same.

Dallas vs. San Francisco for the NFC championship, with the winner to be favored in the Super Bowl.

“No, it’s not a load off my back that Joe Montana is gone,” said Young, the 49er quarterback and defending league most valuable player. “It’s a load on my back. We need to go to the Super Bowl.”

And this from his Cowboy counterpart, Troy Aikman:

“Everybody wonders whether we will be complacent. We’re too young to be complacent. All we know is that the Super Bowl was a great time, and we want to get back.”

Not that free agency hasn’t left the rest of the NFC with some intrigue.

Watch out, Windy City, Jim McMahon is bringing the Minnesota Vikings back to Chicago.

Wonder if Gary Clark has sharpened up that end-zone dance for his return to Washington with the Phoenix Cardinals?

Won’t Reggie White of the Green Bay Packers have fun in that early game against the Philadelphia Eagles? Or will he soon discover both of his knees missing?

Will Bobby Hebert require a bodyguard when the Atlanta Falcons travel to New Orleans? More than one?

And has Eric Dickerson already decided whom he is going to rip when the Falcons visit the Rams?

All of that will be window dressing, though, to the real story of the season, the rivalry that began with Dwight Clark’s catch and continued a decade later with Alvin Harper’s catch. The head-butting of two eras.

The only player missing from the Cowboys is a guy named Smith, but they will do just dandy without him. That’s Vinson Smith, a strong-side linebacker who was recently traded to the Chicago Bears.

Emmitt Smith, their all-world running back, is still holding out because of a contract impasse of about $1 million. But he’s not fooling anybody.

He might skip the Cowboys’ first game, on Monday night in Washington, but chances are he will be like thousands of other young men in this country during the fall. After watching one football game on TV, he will go outside to find one.

You can bet that he will be in uniform Oct. 17, when the 49ers visit the Cowboys at Texas Stadium in what could be the most important game of the regular season.

And he will be there again on Jan. 23, when those teams figure to meet in an NFC championship rematch of last season’s 30-20 Cowboy victory.

Young and Aikman. Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin. Emmitt Smith and Ricky Watters. Jimmy Johnson and George Seifert.

By then, faced with the impending salary-cap storm, many teams that reeled in free agents will be busy throwing them back.

The multimillion-dollar deals will begin disintegrating under the long shadow of the word, non-guaranteed.

The Cowboys vs. the 49ers will be like an snug old coat. How good it will feel.

THE ELITE

* DALLAS COWBOYS

New: Dixon Edwards, a special teams hero, will replace Vinson Smith at linebacker.

Old: Jerry Jones hugging Jimmy Johnson.

Best guess: Many thought Aikman would have difficulty making a quick recovery from back surgery in late June. But he has already endured an exhibition against Buddy Ryan’s Houston defense without requiring a paramedic, so they were wrong.

The Cowboys, who were the average age of fifth-year college students last fall, are only going to get better. When you hear them moaning about injuries, remember, they are talking about injuries to backups .

They have the conference’s best pressure quarterback, best running back, most explosive wide receiver combination, Irvin and Harper, and quickest defense, led by Ken Norton Jr.

The only thing that can beat this team is complacency. Check out Johnson’s perpetually red face, and you will know that shouldn’t be a problem.

* SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

New: Tim McDonald, a Pro Bowl safety to help a lousy pass defense. Dana Stubblefield and Todd Kelly, first-round draft choices, should help replace defections of top defensive linemen-linebackers Pierce Holt and Tim Harris.

Old: “We want Joe, we want Joe.”

Best guess: The on-field story here is not whether Young can replace Joe Montana. Anybody who would still wonder about that hasn’t been following the game for the last two years.

The question is, once Young returns from a thumb injury by the second week of the season, will their defense require his offense to score 40 points per game? Defense, particularly a blown play by safety Dana Hall on Aikman’s slant pass to Harper, is the reason the 49ers did not go to the Super Bowl last year.

McDonald will help, but losing Holt could crush them without help from Dennis Brown and Ted Washington, defensive linemen who need to throw around their combined 600 pounds.

TOP CONTENDERS

* GREEN BAY PACKERS

New: Reggie White and Bill Maas, defensive ends for a bad defense. Mark Clayton, a receiver to take pressure off Sterling Sharpe. Harry Galbreath, a guard for an aging offensive line. John Stephens, a running back acquired in a trade to help a poor running game.

Old: Titletown, U.S.A.

Best guess: They should overtake Detroit to win the title in the mediocre Central Division, but does everybody’s trendy pick have enough balance to take the next step?

Sure, they have outstanding young quarterback Brett Favre and receiver Sharpe, first in line for Rice’s crown. But unless Stephens and fullback Edgar Bennett can be more true to the memories of Roger Craig and Tom Rathman, this 49er-style offense won’t look anything like the 49ers.

It was a bad defense before White arrived as the prize free agent. It might still be a bad defense. After two sloppy exhibitions, White was so angry that he called a team meeting. At this rate, he will lose his voice before they win a playoff game.

* DETROIT LIONS

New: Bill Fralic, Dave Lutz and Dave Richards--three offensive lineman hired so that Barry Sanders can continue living. Pat Swilling, top linebacker acquired in a trade with New Orleans. Tim McKyer, a cornerback signed out of desperation. The easiest schedule in the league.

Old: Watching them every Thanksgiving.

Best guess: Much improved from last year’s 5-11 record after management decided to spend millions rebuilding an offensive line that was beset with injuries and tragedy. How long before members of this new line stop running into each other, nobody knows.

The defense will be better with Swilling, although how good can the secondary be? After failing to sign second-round pick Ryan McNeil, they were forced to take a chance on McKyer last week when he was ignored by everybody else for the last six months.

And how long is Rodney Peete is going to last this time?

* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New: Wade Wilson, quarterback, signed from Atlanta to make sure they don’t blow any more 20-7 leads in the final 20 minutes of a playoff game. Brad Muster, running back, signed from Chicago for the same reason.

Old: Their play selection on third and four.

Best guess: Wilson, who passed for more than 300 yards in the final three games of 1992 for the Atlanta Falcons, gives this team an exciting dimension not available during the Bobby Hebert era.

The running game was helped with first-round draft pick William Roaf, but hurt when Vaughn Dunbar suffered a season-ending knee injury. Does Dalton Hilliard have anything left? The most important thing here is that the Saints (0-4) are the only team in the NFL that has never won a playoff game.

* ATLANTA FALCONS

New: Pierce Holt and Jumpy Geathers, defensive linemen, and cornerback Melvin Jenkins join the league’s worst defense. Eric Dickerson joins the backfield of the league’s 27th-ranked rushing offense. Bobby Hebert is the league’s best backup quarterback.

Old: A coach who wears belt buckles the size of serving trays.

Best guess: Either the Falcons are going to win the division title or Coach Jerry Glanville is going to lose his job. Considering the all-or-nothing attitude of this team, the odds are about even.

Chris Miller is the only quarterback in the conference with 15 or more touchdown passes in each of the last four seasons. If only he could stay sound enough to last 15 or more games. Andre Rison and Michael Haynes will be there to make spectacular catches, no matter who throws the ball.

This is one NFL team that is unabashedly cheering for the San Francisco Giants. The sooner the Atlanta Braves are eliminated, the sooner they get their hands on defensive back Deion Sanders.

* MINNESOTA VIKINGS

New: McMahon is the new quarterback and badly needed leader. Barry Word arrives in trade from Kansas City as running back replacement for Terry Allen. Qadry Ismail, a receiver, and Robert Smith, a running back, will both get plenty of chances to become rookie of the year.

Old: A quarterback who insists on wearing tinted windows on his helmet.

Best guess: This was a definite playoff team until the loss of Allen, who will sit out the season because of a knee injury. Say goodby to 1,679 total yards and 15 touchdowns.

Say hello to McMahon, who could give the offense a badly needed kick, at least when he plays. He is so injury prone, he has never played in more than 14 games, and he has had 11 seasons to try.

A LUCKY PUNCH AWAY

* PHOENIX CARDINALS

New: Steve Beuerlein will be starting quarterback. Garrison Hearst will take his handoffs. Gary Clark will catch his passes. Safeties John Booty and Chuck Cecil will bust heads on defense.

Old: Bill Bidwill jokes.

Best guess: No team changed its image more this summer than this one, and you have to love them for it.

Hearst has shown up to join plenty of other young talent, particularly a huge defensive line led by emerging star Eric Swann. Don’t think Clark and Beuerlein haven’t been showing their Super Bowl rings around the locker room this summer. Their job is to teach these kids how to win.

* WASHINGTON REDSKINS

New: Coach Richie Petitbon fills Joe Gibbs’ exalted footwear. Tim McGee will supposedly replace Clark at wide receiver. Right. Carl Banks and Al Noga join the defensive line, but both of them combined can’t replace defector Wilber Marshall.

Old: That insensitive team nickname.

Best guess: they were on shaky ground before tackle Jim Lachey was sidelined for the season because of a knee injury. Can the offensive line--yes, there really is a guy named Moe Elewonibi--protect Mark Rypien? Will the new two-back system work with special teams escapee Brian Mitchell as the featured back?

And will Desmond Howard ever play better than he practices? With Clark in Phoenix and Art Monk on the bench, the three top receivers will be Howard, Ricky Sanders and McGee. You call that a posse?

JUST HANGING AROUND

* TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

New: Martin Mayhew and Jerry Gray, defensive backs, and Hardy Nickerson, linebacker, join a young, underachieving defense that was last in the league against the pass. Vince Workman makes their offensive backfield one of the deepest in the league.

Real old: Steve DeBerg

Best guess: Reggie Cobb is the best running back few have heard of. Anthony McDowell is the best fullback absolutely nobody has heard of.

DeBerg, 39, the starting quarterback this minute, is such a darn nice guy everybody wants him to succeed. Santana Dotson is simply frightening on the defensive line.

No reason this can’t be the first winning season in 11 years for the boys in Florida Orange, and that’s the real name of that color, honest.

* NEW YORK GIANTS

New: Coach Dan Reeves assumes control of Ray Handley’s hot seat. Mark Jackson and Mike Sherrard will finally give them smart, fast receivers. Carlton Bailey and Michael Brooks will help Lawrence Taylor at linebacker.

Old: Lawrence Taylor golf jokes.

Best guess: This team is in such bad shape, it should actually benefit from Reeves’ legendary tight grip. But simply because you add speed to your receivers doesn’t mean you can subtract five years from the shoulder of your quarterback.

In attacking the third-hardest schedule in the league, the Giants will rely often on Rodney Hampton, the conference’s best running back who isn’t named Smith or Sanders.

* RAMS

New: Jerome Bettis will be their best running back by the middle of the season. Irv Eatman tries to play as long as Jackie Slater on the offensive line. Shane Conlan, Henry Rolling and Fred Stokes stabilize a shaky defense.

Old: The phantom sack.

Best guess: The last time Chuck Knox took over a situation similar to this, it was in Seattle in 1983. After going 9-7 in his first season, the young Seahawks suddenly realized what he was doing and went 12-4 in his second season.

If the same improvement occurs here, the Rams will go 9-7. That is not out of reach, considering they have a fearless quarterback who has decided he will no longer allow this offense to be bullied or intimidated.

Good luck, T.J. Rubley.

OUT COLD

* PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

New: Mark Bavaro, tight end, will be the thug that Keith Jackson could never be. Tim Harris, linebacker, and Erik McMillan, defensive back, will have to be players they never were.

Old: Anybody on this team who still talks about Buddy Ryan.

Best guess: Reggie White is gone. Top defenders Seth Joyner and Clyde Simmons will be gone through free agency next year. The team is so angry at owner Norman Braman that Coach Rich Kotite put a gag order on anybody who wanted to rip the organization.

Despite Randall Cunningham’s pledge to be a better leader, things are so bad here that nose tackle Michael Carter, signed from the 49ers, abruptly quit after a month. Faced with the most difficult schedule in the league, the rest of the team could soon join him.

* CHICAGO BEARS

New: Coach Dave Wannstedt replaces Mike Ditka, and he hasn’t attacked one player yet. Craig (Ironhead) Heyward arrives to remind everybody of when Refrigerator Perry was a running back. Tony Blaylock comes to help the pass defense. Linebacker Joe Cain goes from backup in Seattle to starter here.

Old: Da Bears.

Best guess: Bet on it, Wannstedt will rebuild this team in the image of the Dallas Cowboys, where he was a defensive coordinator under Jimmy Johnson. We mean, the exact image of the Cowboys, who were 1-15 in Wannstedt’s first year in Dallas.

If this depleted team finishes .500, Wannstedt will be pinching himself.

Things Change

A look at the some of the leading players who joined teams in the NFC in the new era of free agency. With player, position, and former team: ATLANTA FALCONS James Geathers (DL): Washington Bobby Hebert (QB): New Orleans Pierce Holt (DE): San Francisco Melvin Jenkins (CB): Detroit

CHICAGO BEARS Craig Heyward (RB): New Orleans Joe Cain (LB): Seattle Vernice Smith (G): Phoenix

DETROIT LIONS Bill Fralic (G): Atlanta Dave Richards (OL): San Diego

GREEN BAY PACKERS Mark Clayton (WR): Miami Bill Maas (NT): Kansas City Reggie White (DE): Philadelphia

RAMS Shane Conlan (LB): Buffalo Irv Eatman (OT): N.Y. Jets Henry Rolling (LB): San Diego Fred Stokes (DE): Washington

MINNESOTA VIKINGS Izel Jenkins (DB): Philadelphia Jim McMahon (QB): Philadelphia Fred Strickland (LB): Rams

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Brad Muster (RB): Chicago Wade Wilson (QB): Atlanta

NEW YORK GIANTS Carlton Bailey (LB): Buffalo Michael Brooks (LB): Denver Mark Jackson (WR): Denver Mike Sherrard (WR): San Francisco

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Mark Bavaro (TE): Cleveland Tim Harris (LB): San Francisco Erik McMillan (DB): N.Y. Jets

PHOENIX CARDINALS Steve Beuerlein (QB): Dallas Chuck Cecil (DB): Green Bay Gary Clark (WR): Washington

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Tim McDonald (S): Phoenix

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Jerry Gray (DB): Houston Martin Mayhew (DB): Washington Hardy Nickerson (LB): Pittsburgh

WASHINGTON REDSKINS Carl Banks (LB): N.Y. Giants Tim McGee (WR): Cincinnati Al Noga (DL): Minnesota