Prop. 172--Close Up and Personal

It was a campaign manager’s dream. And it was a campaign manager’s nightmare.

But first some background:

Stu Mollrich is a skilled and seasoned practitioner of pragmatic politics. A layman might add the word cynical, but that just goes with the job.

Mollrich and his veteran partners--Bill Butcher and Arnold Forde--know there is no middle level of achievement in the political consulting business. On Election Day, you either win or you lose. Lose a lot, and you’re looking for a new line of work.

Fifteen years ago, Butcher-Forde--with Mollrich writing the ads--managed the campaign for Proposition 13, the historic, anti-Establishment ballot initiative that slashed property taxes. This year, Mollrich and Butcher-Forde are managing Proposition 172, the Establishment measure that would continue a half-cent sales tax and use all the money for public safety. That includes fire protection.

Ironically for these campaign consultants, there is a direct correlation between the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978 and the need now for Proposition 172. Proposition 13 reduced property tax revenues for local government by $7 billion. The state bailed out the locals and took up the slack. Then, in the 1990s, Sacramento went broke and began reneging on that help.

So counties and cities now are up against it. They desperately need the sales tax revenue from Proposition 172 to avoid decimating sheriff’s, police and fire departments, closing jails and laying off prosecutors. But, although the measure has been ahead in the polls, the election outcome has been considered dicey. The anti-tax revolution born of Proposition 13 is not dead. Many voters, especially Republican activists, think their tax dollars are wasted.

And that brings us back to the campaign manager’s dream--and nightmare.

*

Mollrich drove to his Newport Beach office Wednesday morning listening to news reports of Southern California erupting in flames. There were infernos in Thousand Oaks and Altadena. At work, TV sets were showing live film of exploding houses.

It was the kind of timely tragedy that a campaign manager fantasizes about. Not that he would ever wish it or relish it, of course. But it doesn’t take much political brilliance to understand that all this TV coverage amounted to a free, nonstop commercial for Proposition 172--less than a week before the election.

That was the dream. Then came the nightmare. Mollrich lives in Laguna Beach.

“I got a call from my wife,” he says. “She said the whole town was burning up.”

The campaign manager got in his car and raced home, taking several long detours because the normal routes were blocked. When he got there, flames were less than half a mile away.

“We packed up,” he says. “I’m not one of these people who believe you can fight a major fire with a garden hose on a roof. I really believe firefighters are a lot better at that than me. If they can’t save the house, I can’t.”

Mollrich and his wife grabbed their best clothes, wedding albums and the beagle. “I called the Ritz-Carlton and asked them, ‘Will you let me bring my dog?’ They said sure,” he recalls. “So now we’re camped out at the Ritz-Carlton with a variety of dogs.”

The house was saved. Mollrich had figured it probably would burn.

Arnold Forde--his partner--also lives in Laguna Beach, near Emerald Bay, and his house came even closer to going up.

*

On Thursday afternoon, Mollrich was back in his office doing what any good campaign manager would do--producing a TV commercial to capitalize politically on the disaster.

“There’s no time for anything fancy,” he said. “It’ll just be straightforward--Proposition 172 provides needed funding for fire services, and people ought to support it. We’ll show footage of people fighting fires.”

The commercials will begin showing today and may even bump off some new ads narrated by actor Clint Eastwood.

“These fires,” Mollrich predicted, “are going to focus the voters’ attention on things we’ve been trying to talk about in the campaign.”

But the strategists have not been focusing on fire prevention. They have been targeting crime--gang murders, ATM holdups, school shootings, rapes. Fire protection is a government service that nobody really thinks about until there’s a fire.

“People have a definite belief that crime is not under control. They didn’t feel that way about fire,” Mollrich said. “But a lot of people in Southern California feel that way now . . . .

“I’ve got a real personal reason to hope this thing passes. The Laguna Beach Fire Department did a hell of a job.”