Some Things Predictable as the Super Bowl Looms

I can’t imagine anyone in Southern California caring today but, back in the toy department, the Super Bowl picture is down to the final four now.

I don’t know who will win. But I do know how:

1. One team will punt the ball out of bounds on the opponents’ two-yard line and their fans will go crazy. They shouldn’t. The easiest yards to make in football are from your own goal line. The defense has too much field to cover and too often the team comes out from the shadow of its own goal post with relative ease and within two or three plays might be in field goal range or better.

In some ways, 90-yard marches are common. They used to call this maneuver kicking out at the “coffin corner,” but too often the corpse rises up and beats you.

2. Look for two teams that have struggled manfully to score 10 or 13 points between them for nearly 55 minutes to suddenly start scoring at will in the final few minutes of a game.

Check the Kansas City-Houston game Sunday. At the start of the fourth quarter, it was Oilers 10, Chiefs 7. It ended up 28-20, Chiefs.

When those teams go into what I would call their “Woolworth store” defenses--the nickel and dime sets--they get like Mitch Williams serving up gopher balls. You stop rushing (or blitzing) Joe Montana, you might as well go home. The scoreboard gets a nervous breakdown in the final minutes.

3. Get used to the idea that the pass rush is a thing of the past. Nobody has anything like the “Fearsome Foursome” or the San Francisco “Gold Rush” anymore. You don’t see players like Deacon Jones, Lamar Lundy, Merlin Olsen and Roosevelt Grier throwing blockers to one side as they meet at the quarterback in a foul mood these days. More likely you’ll see the “Feeble Foursome” and the “Tin Rush. “

Those old-time pass rushers didn’t need blitzes (or “red dogs,” as they called them). They would have treated a blitzing linebacker or safety man as an interloper sticking his nose in where it wasn’t wanted. Or needed.

4. Look for the AFC to get its annual licking. The AFC lost its competitive edge a long time ago because it got away from its rootsdaring, high-risk, take-a-chance, attack-boldly football. Instead, it adopted the close-to-the-vest, strong-arm football of the older conference. It was like trading bites with a lion, getting into the water with the sharks. The results were predictable.

5. Expect to see a team with fourth and one on the opponents’ 40-yard-line punt the ball--and gain, maybe, 20 yards in the process. This is a craven tactic that has the effect of telling your team you think they’re no damn good. And even if you kick the ball out of bounds on the three--well, see Item 1 above.

6. Expect the teams in the Super Bowl to be the teams with the best quarterbacks, as usual. Not the teams with the best running backs. Emmitt Smith can have a good game, but he won’t be in the Super bowl if Troy Aikman has a bad one. Ricky Watters may be the new San Francisco treat, but Steve Young’s arm is the 49ers’ killer weapon. Marcus Allen is good, but Joe Montana better have another three-touchdown-pass day. Thurman Thomas is good, too, but Jim Kelly will be the reason the Bills win.

7. Look for a key game to be decided by a field goal. Maybe, an overtime field goal. No playoff game should be decided by an overtime field goal. It is the cheapest score imaginable. With these guys kicking them 50 yards with ease nowadays, it could boil down to a game being decided by the coin toss. It’s like seeing a pennant decided by a balk, Wimbledon by a foot fault.

8. But if seeing a game decided by an overtime field goal is counter-sporting, how about deciding one by a pass-interference call?

This is one case where the punishment hardly fits the crime. A pass defender needs a warrant to cover a receiver these days, but an official has to make an assumption, and only an assumption, that the receiver will catch the ball.

But guys wide open have been known to drop passes. It’s like winning a Kentucky Derby on a foul claim--which it is interesting to note that no horse has ever done. The interference call is often like giving the death penalty for double-parking.

9. Look for the return of the sweep that Vince Lombardi used to call the “run to daylight.” The 49ers dusted it off and buried the Giants with it. Properly executed, it’s as unstoppable as a glacier.

10. Remember, in an obvious passing situation, any quarterback not on crutches can help himself to 15 or more yards running. Notice how often he passes anyway, even though the pass rush has deteriorated and no one is within a first down of him.

11. If Joe Montana can win a Super Bowl with an AFC team, check him for a halo and wings--or, at least, a cape and a block S. He’s not human.