THE ECONOMY

Big Drop in Tourism Predicted: Economists at Chapman University predicted a major drop in tourism that could cost Los Angeles and Orange counties as much as $4.6 billion this year. “We had been expecting 5% increases in tourism spending in each county for 1994, but that was before Monday’s earthquake,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Orange-based private university’s Center for Economic Research. A revised forecast now calls for a 10% to 20% drop in Los Angeles tourism and a 5% to 10% drop in Orange County, he said. San Francisco tourism dropped 15% the year after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, he said. Adibi said any economic benefit for Southern California from new construction activity in the wake of Monday’s quake will be erased by the losses sustained by people who had no earthquake insurance and are not able to obtain government aid to repair quake damage.