COLLEGE BASKETBALL / GENE WOJCIECHOWSKI : Former Winner of Office Pool Offers Secrets to Success

It is a question that has befuddled civilizations, confounded the scholars, mystified the learned. It is a question that haunts us now more than ever.

How do you win an NCAA tournament office pool?

As a public service and for entertainment purposes only (no reason for the Feds to become involved, if you know what we mean), we offer the services of Utah Coach Rick Majerus.

Majerus will be in Hutchinson, Kan., today, scouting players at the National Junior College Athletic Assn. tournament, but his heart will be at the NCAAs. Although his team failed to earn an NCAA tournament invitation, Majerus was chosen as handicapping expert for several important reasons:

--He has taken two schools (Ball State and Utah) to the NCAAs, guiding the Runnin’ Utes to a Sweet 16 appearance in 1991.

--He was an assistant coach on the 1977 Marquette NCAA championship team.

--He has won an office pool.

MAJERUS SPEAKS, PART II

Majerus’ vision for office pool success revolves around a handful of basic basketball tenets. First and foremost is the theory of seeding.

“Seeding is everything,” Majerus said.

According to Majerus, the West Regional is the weakest of the four brackets, which means No. 1-seeded Missouri, No. 2 Arizona, No. 3 Louisville and No. 4 Syracuse “should have more of an opportunity” to advance than the top-seeded teams in the other more difficult regionals.

He is right, of course. Last year, the East Regional was considered the softest of the four brackets and sure enough, three of the top four (No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Cincinnati and No. 4 Arkansas) advanced to the Sweet 16, the top two to the round of eight and the top one to the Final Four.

Again using last season’s NCAA tournament field as an example, 10 of the teams seeded among the top four reached the Sweet 16. Seven advanced to the round of eight, four to the Final Four.

The lesson: Longshots are nice in the early rounds, but when the going gets tough, the high-seeded teams get going.

“Anybody who picked Santa Clara over Arizona last year (the No. 2-seeded Wildcats lost to the No. 15 Broncos) should be on a street corner predicting Armageddon . . . and we should be listening to him,” Majerus said.

Majerus said to look carefully at styles of play. In tournament play, where preparation time is short, a different kind of team can create serious problems for an opponent.

“Kentucky . . . Temple, they play a brand of basketball that is in contrast to the norm,” Majerus said. “They have a style of play that you’re not accustomed to. Those are the kind of teams I look for. Not many teams play that way, so it’s hard to emulate what Kentucky does (full-court pressure, up-tempo offense, lots of three-point shots) in a practice, preparation situation.”

That would explain why Majerus is particularly bullish on Kentucky, Wisconsin Green Bay (very deliberate style), Western Kentucky (a Kentucky wanna-be), Southwestern Louisiana (more than 500 three-point attempts this season), Arkansas (offensive and defensive pressure) and North Carolina (two different kinds of inside attacks with the lumbering Eric Montross and the finesse-oriented Rasheed Wallace).

Majerus is an office-pool believer in teams that feature big and small.

“I look at teams that have inside and outside strength,” he said, immediately ruling out about two-thirds of the tournament field.

The big-small philosophy is why Majerus isn’t so hot on teams such as Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, California--top heavy on guards, but no inside game.

“I said this earlier in the season, the two best guards in the country are at Arizona,” Majerus said of Damon Stoudamire and Khalid Reeves. “But (center Joe) Blair is kind of enigmatic at best, while (power forward Ray) Owes gives you what he has. And (6-foot-1 Reggie) Geary is a guard, not a (small forward), which is where they have him right now.

“Then you have Cal. The best two-man punch in the game is (guard Jason) Kidd and (forward Lamond) Murray, but they don’t have an inside game to speak of.”

On the opposite side is a team such as UCLA, which has a nice low-post weapon in center George Zidek, but no consistent outside threats.

“That’s what kills the kid at UCLA,” Majerus said. “UCLA has no shooters. (Zidek) has pretty good low-post moves, but they don’t have the shooters to take the (defensive) pressure off him.”

Never underestimate the importance of momentum, Majerus said. Entering last year’s tournament, George Washington, seeded No. 12, had won nine of its previous 13 games. The Colonials reached the Sweet 16. Temple, seeded No. 7, had won seven of its previous nine. The Owls reached the round of eight.

There are exceptions. Majerus said Texas, which has finished extremely strong, has false momentum. Lots of victories, but against crummy competition.

“That Southwest Conference appears to be as weak as it looks,” he said. “But then, our league (the Western Athletic Conference) is very mediocre. The Big West is very sub-par. You know, basketball in the West is just not as good as the East. Anyone who owns a television set can see that.”

Nor is it such a good idea to come bumbling and stumbling toward the postseason.

“If you’re coming in like Wisconsin (which staggered down the stretch), you’re coming in and you’re tentative,” Majerus said. “Now is not the time to be tentative.”

Other tentative candidates include UCLA, St. Louis, Indiana and Duke.

Majerus’ final tip deals with the great player. Under no circumstances, he said, should you fall for the Danny Manning-Did-It-At-Kansas-So-We-Can-Do-It-Too theory.

“The best player in college ball--and he’ll also be the top player in the NBA draft--is Glenn Robinson,” Majerus said. “But the one thing about Purdue is that they only have three guys who can score--Matt Waddell, Cuonzo Martin and Robinson.

“I don’t think one guy can win you the Final Four,” he said. “There are too many things you can do to one guy. You can box and one, have double teams running at him, whatever. I don’t think (Purdue) has enough.”

MAJERUS SPEAKS, PART III

And now, the regionals. . . .

EAST--According to Majerus, No. 1-seeded North Carolina will advance to the Final Four despite Coach Dean Smith’s reluctance to insert freshmen phenoms Jerry Stackhouse and Wallace into the starting rotation over seniors Kevin Salvadori and Brian Reese.

“You know what my theory is about North Carolina?” Majerus said. “I think they’re trying to integrate two of the best young players in basketball into the lineup. I think Dean fights that.

“Everyone says the kid at Maryland (Joe Smith) is the best freshman of the year. I will say he had the best year of the freshman. But the best player is Rasheed Wallace.”

Majerus’ favorite for a first-round upset: Penn over Nebraska.

Majerus’ favorite if North Carolina falters: Connecticut.

SOUTHEAST--Majerus picks No. 3 Kentucky to earn a trip to Charlotte. “Because their style of play is so tough,” he said.

Majerus’ favorite for a first-round upset: No. 8-seeded Providence over No. 1 Purdue.

Majerus’ most overrated team: No. 2-seeded Duke. “I think Duke is a paper tiger,” he said. “They’ve done it on the coaching of Mike Krzyzewski and they’ve done it on the shoulders of Grant Hill.”

WEST--No. 3 Louisville’s toughest game will come against No. 2 Arizona, Majerus said. Louisville will win and eventually win the regional.

Majerus’ favorite for an early round upset: No. 8 Cincinnati over No. 1 Missouri in the second round.

Majerus’ choice of most interesting first-round game: No. 5 Cal vs. No. 12 Wisconsin Green Bay. “Different styles,” Majerus said. “Kidd is a guard who wants to drive the car 90 miles an hour. The other kid (Green Bay’s John Martinez) wants to get in the right lane, wants to take the senior-citizen lane.”

His second choice: No. 4 Syracuse vs. No. 13 Hawaii. “Syracuse and Hawaii only have seven men who play,” he said. “If Hawaii had nine, I’d take Hawaii.”

MIDWEST--A Final Four no-brainer. Arkansas.

“Their talent level is tremendous,” Majerus said. “They can kill you with scoring power and they also can get points off their defense. They pressure and they’re very deep.”

Majerus on why No. 3 Michigan won’t return to a third consecutive Final Four: “One thing about Michigan is that they’ve been there before. But I think (guard Jalen) Rose is too inconsistent.”

Majerus’ favorite for a first-round upset: No. 11 Western Kentucky over No. 6 Texas.

Majerus’ thinking on No. 5 UCLA: Despite being placed in the same Oklahoma City subregional as Tulsa and Oklahoma State, “I think they got a great bracket,” he said. Majerus is banking on two UCLA victories.

All in all, Majerus said there are eight teams that could win the NCAA title: North Carolina, Kentucky, Louisville, Arkansas, Purdue, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Cincinnati.

His championship-game pick: North Carolina over Arkansas.

THE REST

North Carolina’s ranking as the nation’s No. 1 team doesn’t mean much come tournament time. Only one team in the last 10 years has finished No. 1 and then gone on to win the NCAA championship. It happened in 1992, when Duke defeated Michigan. . . . Best tournament rip: From Mark Blaudschun of the Boston Globe: “NCAA upset special? Arizona over Loyola.” . . . Our final eight: Kentucky, Kansas, Connecticut, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Arkansas, Minnesota, Cincinnati. Final Four: Kentucky, North Carolina, Arkansas, Minnesota. Semifinals: Kentucky over North Carolina, Arkansas over Minnesota. Final: Arkansas over Kentucky.

Top 10

As selected by staff writer Gene Wojciechowski

No. Team Rec. 1. North Carolina 27-6 2. Kentucky 26-6 3. Arkansas 25-3 4. Massachusetts 27-6 5. Connecticut 27-4 6. Purdue 26-4 7. Missouri 25-3 8. Louisville 26-5 9. Arizona 25-5 10. Michigan 21-7

Waiting list: Duke (23-5), Wake Forest (20-11), Texas (25-7), Cincinnati (22-9), Cal (22-7).