These Days, Every Pick Must Pay Off : Pro football: The limits of the salary cap dictate that even rookies must contribute immediately.

Apologies to all you armchair scouts who have spent good money on hot tips, hotlines and hot sheets.

The most important statistic in today’s 59th annual NFL draft, which begins at 12:30 p.m. PDT, is not height, weight or 40-yard time.

It is a percentage.

According to league research, 92% of last year’s draft picks spent the 1993 season on either active rosters, practice squads or injured reserve.

This is a 60% increase over the number of players who usually stick.

No longer are today’s activities considered a cute little Sunday afternoon exercise in rolling the dice.

This has become serious business. Team-building, game-winning, Super Bowl-type business.

“Under our new rules, you must do a better job drafting,” said Carl Peterson, general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs. “With the salary cap and all that, you must find rookies who can come in and play right away. The draft becomes extremely important to everybody.”

That explains why, unlike in past years, the theme of this year’s seven-round event is not offense, or defense, or quarterbacks or linemen.

It is trades.

The Dallas Cowboys, picking 28th in 29 first-round slots, want desperately to trade up for one of the top eight defensive players. But so do the San Francisco 49ers. And Chicago Bears. And New Orleans Saints.

With free-agency defections and salary-cap problems, those teams need cheap help, and they need it now.

The Indianapolis Colts, with two of the first seven picks in an average draft, would be willing to trade down. So would the Rams.

About the only thing that hasn’t happened is somebody offering representatives of Charlotte or Jacksonville a slew of picks for a chance to take their place at today’s coin flip determining the first pick in 1995.

But the day is still young.

“Every team out there is working hard to make this an impact draft,” said Bobby Beathard, San Diego Charger general manager who has one of three teams without a first-round pick. “It will be interesting to see what happens.”

The only certainties are that Ohio State defensive tackle Dan Wilkinson will be the first player picked by somebody , and that defensive players will dominate the early selections.

Although there are two dominant quarterbacks, as there were last year, Tennessee’s Heath Shuler and Fresno State’s Trent Dilfer are not being confused with Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer.

And although San Diego State running back Marshall Faulk will probably be the second player picked, he is considered the only franchise running back of the lot.

This won’t be like last year, when Jerome Bettis, Garrison Hearst and Robert Smith were taken in the first 21 slots.

This is not the year of the glamour position, but of the player who gets dirty.

It is the year of defensive linemen known for their ferocity--Wilkinson, Notre Dame’s Bryant Young, Texas A&M;’s Sam Adams, USC’s Willie McGinest.

And gifted cornerbacks--Texas A&M;’s Aaron Glenn, Alabama’s Antonio Langham.

And linebackers who hit like Junior Seau--Alcorn State’s John Thierry, Nebraska’s Trev Alberts, UCLA’s Jamir Miller.

All mock drafts will have those players near the top. But with the great potential for trades, this is a year many mock drafts could become mockeries.

--The Cincinnati Bengals have the first overall pick, and have already started negotiating with Wilkinson.

But don’t be surprised if they suddenly trade that pick to a defense-hungry team like the Arizona Cardinals or New England Patriots.

--The Patriots have the fourth overall pick, and are expected to select McGinest. But don’t be surprised if they trade down with the Indianapolis Colts, who have the seventh pick.

The Colts, expected to take Faulk with the second pick, could then take Dilfer with the Patriots’ pick.

What looked like a foolish move--the Colts passing on Shuler for Faulk simply because they have Jim Harbaugh--could suddenly turn into the best move of many drafts.

“That has to be what the Colts are thinking,” a club official said. “They could end up with both of those guys.”

--If the Patriots don’t trade their pick, the Rams are expected to pick Dilfer, figuring that a top quarterback prospect should not be ignored even if he would have to play behind Chris Miller.

But if the Patriots trade their pick, then the Rams could trade their pick to the Cowboys, who want McGinest and would give up receiver Alvin Harper.

All that noise, in the first 75 minutes.

Teams will spend the rest of the first round jockeying to get into a position to take one of the seven remaining impact defenders. After that, offensive lineman and wide receivers will be taken, among them USC’s Johnnie Morton, who would look good to the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 17th pick.

Not everyone will be affected by first-round maneuvering. The best move involving the Raiders has already happened.

When the Green Bay Packers signed former Tampa Bay running back Reggie Cobb on Thursday, it left Northern Illinois running back LeShon Johnson for Al Davis.

Or would he choose bigger, quicker Arizona State running back Mario Bates?

Or maybe he would forget about running back and find a much-needed linebacker, perhaps Aubrey Beavers of Oklahoma?

At least we know he will not take Florida State quarterback Charlie Ward. This year’s Heisman Trophy winner is not expected to be selected until the second or third round.

In a new NFL, it is comforting to know that some things never change.

Fearless Forecast

Times staff writer Bill Plaschke gives his projection of how the first round of today’ NFL draft will play out:

No. & Team: 1. CINCINNATI Player: Dan Wilkinson Pos.: DT College: Ohio State Why: Would you turn down the next Cortez Kennedy?

No. & Team: 2. INDIANAPOLIS Player: Marshall Faulk Pos.: RB College: San Diego State Why: If anybody can make quarterback Jim Harbaugh look good, it is this guy.

No. & Team: 3. WASHINGTON Player: Heath Shuler Pos.: QB College: Tennessee Why: Coach Norv Turner groomed Troy Aikman in Dallas and sees a similar prodigy here.

No. & Team: 4. NEW ENGLAND Player: Willie McGinest Pos.: DE College: USC Why: Only six teams had worse defenses against the rush, and only eight teams had fewer sacks.

No. & Team: 5. RAMS Player: Trent Dilfer Pos.: QB College: Fresno State Why: Hey, if Colts really think Harbaugh is the answer and are willing to let this talent fall here, Chuck Knox will be glad to snag him.

No. & Team: 6. TAMPA BAY Player: Aaron Glenn Pos.: CB College: Texas A&M; Why: Defensive backfield was bad enough before Ricky Reynolds defected.

No. & Team: 7. INDIANAPOLIS (from Atlanta) Player: Bryant Young Pos.: DT College: Notre Dame Why: If they don’t trade up for Dilfer or down to San Francisco or Minnesota, they can rebuild defensive line around this guy.

No. & Team: 8. SEATTLE Player: Sam Adams Pos.: DE College: Texas A&M; Why: They really want Young, but they need somebody to keep opponents from triple-teaming Kennedy, even if it is a guy with reputation for not playing hard.

No. & Team: 9. CLEVELAND Player: John Thierry Pos.: LB College: Alcorn State Why: Dallas would like to trade up for this pick if Rams won’t deal. Thierry plays as cold-blooded as Coach Bill Belichick acts.

No. & Team: 10. ARIZONA Player: Trev Alberts Pos.: LB College: Nebraska Why: Hard-nosed overachiever is Buddy Ryan’s kind of guy.

No. & Team: 11. CHICAGO Player: Antonio Langham Pos.: CB College: Alabama Why: They will be stunned if this once top-five prospect falls into their lap because of recent slow clockings.

No. & Team: 12. NEW ORLEANS Player: Aaron Taylor Pos.: G College: Notre Dame Why: Jim Everett scrambles into Saints draft room and makes this pick.

No. & Team: 13. NEW YORK JETS Player: Charles Johnson Pos.: WR College: Colorado Why: Finally, Boomer gets his burner.

No. & Team: 14. PHILADELPHIA Player: Bernard Williams Pos.: T College: Georgia Why: They want to trade up to replace Seth Joyner and Clyde Simmons, but if they can’t--this is best player left.

No. & Team: 15. SAN FRANCISCO (from San Diego) Player: Dewayne Washington Pos.: CB College: North Carolina State Why: Where did you sayDon Griffin signed again?

No. & Team: 16. MIAMI Player: Jamir Miller Pos.: LB College: UCLA Why: This is what you do when you cannot afford Ken Norton Jr.

No. & Team: 17. PITTSBURGH Player: Johnnie Morton Pos.: WR College: USC Why: Perhaps the worst receiving corps in the league gets better.

No. & Team: 18. MINNESOTA (from Denver) Player: Darnay Scott Pos.: WR College: San Diego State Why: If they can’t trade up, they figureWarren Moon will like this guy.

No. & Team: 19. MINNESOTA Player: Wayne Gandy Pos.: T College: Auburn Why: There, Warren. You satisfied?

No. & Team: 20. GREEN BAY Player: Todd Steussie Pos.: T College: California Why: Somebody to block for newly acquired Reggie Cobb.

No. & Team: 21. DETROIT Player: Thomas Randolph Pos.: CB College: Kansas State Why: Still angry about last-minute touchdown pass by Green Bay’s Brett Favre that beat them in the playoffs.

No. & Team: 22. RAIDERS Player: Mario Bates Pos.: RB College: Arizona State Why: If Al Davis feels enigmatic free-agent running back Harvey Williams is the answer, then he’ll use this pick for Mississippi DT Tim Bowens.

No. & Team: 23. SAN FRANCISCO Player: Tre Johnson Pos.: T College: Temple Why: Needs to mature, but 49ers don’t need him right away.

No. & Team: 24. NEW YORK GIANTS Player: Derrick Alexander Pos.: WR College: Michigan Why: They warned Mark Jackson about dropping thoselate-season passes.

No. & Team: 25. KANSAS CITY Player: Errict Rhett Pos.: RB College: Florida Why: Marcus Allen only looks as if he can play forever.

No. & Team: 26. HOUSTON Player: Joe Johnson Pos.: DE College: Louisville Why: He’s no William Fuller or Sean Jones, but they have to start somewhere.

No. & Team: 27. BUFFALO Player: Aubrey Beavers Pos.: LB College: Oklahoma Why: If they don’t trade up to get one of the top tackles, they will settle for another athletic linebacker like the ones who have taken them to four Super Bowls.

No. & Team: 28. DALLAS Player: Rob Frederickson Pos.: LB College: Michigan State Why: Cowboys will probably trade up, but if not, they love his speed.

No. & Team: 29. PHILADELPHIA (compensation) Player: LeShon Johnson Pos.: RB College: Northern Illinois Why: Hard to believe nation’s leading rusher falls this far, but who was trying to tackle him? Herschel Walker, are you watching?