60% in Poll Say They Back Hike in Sales Tax

About 60% of Ventura County voters would support a sales tax for transportation, according to a telephone poll of 400 likely voters conducted by a consultant for the county Transportation Commission.

But some city leaders remain skeptical that the tax would pass, saying residents are still stumbling from the recession and the Jan. 17 earthquake, and are in no mood for higher taxes.

Final results of the poll, conducted by Townsend, Hermocillo, Raimundo & Usher, are still being compiled, said Max B. Besler, a partner at the Sacramento-based political consulting firm.

Besler outlined some of the poll’s major findings Tuesday in a preliminary oral report to elected officials from each of the county’s 10 cities.

The poll, conducted Thursday to Monday, questioned 400 Ventura County voters who have cast ballots in at least one election in the last four years, or registered since October, 1992.

The poll asked: “Would you support or oppose a countywide half-cent sales tax increase for 20 years to fund transportation system improvements in the county?”

About 60% of those questioned said they would vote yes, while 34% said they would vote no, Besler said. The other 6% were neither opposed to nor in support of the measure. The survey has a five-point margin of error, Besler said.

“You’ve got the makings within this community to get this measure passed,” Besler told the group, gathered for a meeting of the Assn. of Ventura County Cities. “We’ve passed these on a lot tougher turf than Ventura County.”

The consulting firm has run 11 transportation sales tax campaigns throughout the state and won nine, including in Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Santa Clara counties.

If placed on the ballot and approved by a majority of voters in November, the measure would increase the sales tax in Ventura County from 7 1/4 cents to 7 3/4 cents, raising more than $500 million in revenue and matching funds over 20 years.

Based on the results of the poll, Besler recommended to officials that funds be divided so that 30% would be spent on local streets, 35% on highways and 35% on public transit.

Questions included in the poll revealed that residents’ main transportation concerns include synchronizing traffic signals, fixing potholes, increasing services for disabled residents and running clean-fuel buses, Besler said.

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He also found that voters would be more inclined to support a measure that provided for a citizen oversight committee.

“People don’t necessarily believe that this should be postponed because of hard times,” Besler said. “They see this as at least being on par with other problems, like crime.”

Ventura County is the largest county in the state without a local transportation sales tax to help pay for roads and public transit.

The Transportation Commission meets Friday to consider the consultant’s findings and decide whether to recommend that the measure be placed on the ballot.

If the commission agrees to go forward with the measure, it would still face a series of hurdles before it can be placed on the ballot. The measure must win the support of the county and a majority of the cities--or at least enough cities to constitute a majority of the county’s population.

Officials from Ventura, Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley--as well as some smaller cities--expressed skepticism about the poll and concerns about placing a tax on the November ballot. Ventura County voters defeated a similar measure in 1990.

“The consultants are getting paid to give information to the Transportation Commission,” Thousand Oaks Councilman Frank Schillo said. “The stats are wonderful but they don’t take into account the reality that people who are not doing well financially are not going to want to increase the half-cent sales tax.”

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John Brennan, polls director for The Times, cautioned against relying heavily on polls showing voter approval rates for fund-raising measures.

Brennan said a poll he conducted a week before the June 7 election showed a healthy margin of support for three earthquake-related bond measures. All three were defeated.

“Surveys often tend to overstate the likelihood of voters supporting these things,” he said.

City leaders who oppose the tax also argued that because of the failed 1990 campaign, voters do not believe that a sales tax is needed to fund transportation projects.

In the 1990 campaign, some officials said, transit leaders warned that the county could not afford Metrolink unless voters approved the transportation sales tax.

However, despite failure of the tax, transit leaders found the funds to bring Metrolink to Simi Valley and Moorpark.

“The last time this job was not sold,” Simi Valley Mayor Greg Stratton told Besler. “You have to sell it by saying that if it doesn’t go through, we’re going to lose services, and you have to stick by that.”

NEXT STEP

The Ventura County Transportation Commission will meet Friday to vote on putting a half-cent sales tax for transportation on the November ballot. The meeting will be held at 10:30 a.m. at Camarillo City Hall, 601 Carmen Drive. If approved by the commission, the proposal will go to the cities and Board of Supervisors for consideration.