Valley Interview : One of These Days, Smog in L.A. Could Be a Thing of the Past

Finally, some good news about a perennial Los Angeles problem. The smog is going away.

Not rapidly and not entirely, but there has been steady improvement in the air quality of the Los Angeles Basin, according to meteorologists from the South Coast Air Quality Management District. Indeed, they are confident that within two decades, smog will cease to be a serious health hazard in the region.

Earlier this month, AQMD officials said that the alarming Stage 2 smog episodes, which used to be a regular part of San Fernando Valley summers, have been virtually eliminated. The less serious Stage 1 episodes, during which people are advised to avoid vigorous outdoor activity, are still with us but in ever decreasing numbers, they said.

Mild-mannered Joe Cassmassi, an AQMD senior meteorologist, does not seem the kind of person who makes wildly optimistic predictions without solid foundation. But in an interview with Times staff writer David Colker, Cassmassi envisioned a smogless future.

Question: If the smog situation is so improved, why do we still see all that brown yuck in the sky at this time of year?

Answer: We have come a long way, but you have to keep in mind that weather conditions in the Los Angeles Basin make the problem a difficult one. We have what we call photochemical smog, which is created by the emissions in the air that come from motor vehicles and industrial emissions. In the presence of sunshine, there is a chain reaction that turns these gaseous emissions into ozone.

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Q: And that’s the bad stuff.

A: That’s the smog, when ozone hovers near the surface.

The weather is a primary factor. When you get a strong inversion that traps a lot of these emissions and no strong winds to blow them away, the sunshine can drive the smog formation process at a very rapid pace.

Last year was a very good year for us because the El Nino conditions that gave us rains lasted a lot longer than anyone expected. That led to unsettled weather, giving us more cloudy days than normal, more wind and a weaker inversion.

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Q: If weather is such an important factor, how do you know the smog situation is actually getting better from year to year?

A: We can measure over a year the contribution weather has made and by factoring that out, we can look at the overlying trends in air quality.

In 1988 the peak concentration of ozone was .35 parts per million. In 1989 it was .34, in 1990 it was .33 and so on. Last year it was .28. So, what we are seeing is that the capacity to create severe smog episodes is being reduced with each year.

Even if you don’t factor out the weather, you can see the progress. To give you a point of reference, if you go back to 1980, we had roughly 100 Stage 1 episode days in the Los Angeles Basin, which includes the Valley. By 1992 there we only 41. And in 1993 we jumped down to 24, with the assist in the weather. This year we expect on the order of 30.

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Q: How about Stage 2 alerts?

A: The last time we had a Stage 2 episode was in 1988. It would be highly unusual for us to ever have one again. I don’t expect it.

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Q: Are we now to the point where other cities in the U. S. actually have more smog?

A: No, in terms of our report card, we’re still the smoggiest city in the country. In fact, the only other city that truly rivals L. A. is Mexico City. It’s in about the same league.

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Q: We are still worse off than Tokyo, where traffic police have to take oxygen breaks?

A: That’s a different kind of smog, actually. Instead of the photochemical smog that we have, they have what we used to call a London type of smog. It’s a smokestack-type smog.

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Q: Which type is worse?

A: It depends on the contributing factors. Both types have fine particles that get into your lungs.

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Q: How are other cities doing at controlling emissions that cause smog?

A: There again you have to figure in the weather conditions. If you take the greater Chicago area or the Boston-to-Washington corridor, these areas have almost comparable emissions as we do. But their weather conditions are not nearly as restrictive.

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Q: So, given the way our weather helps cook the smog, our conditions are getting better because of a cutback in emissions in the air.

A: Absolutely. We have a very significant program to try and clean up the air and it has been working. We certainly have the best rate of improvement of any area.

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Q: And you are confident that the situation will keep improving?

A: Yes, there are several laws and regulations already in place to keep things going in the right direction. The state now has rules that say that by 1998, 2% of all the new cars sold should be electric. The state has already set new standards for emissions from cars and in 1996 it will further emissions reductions through requiring reformulated fuels. That will make for a significant cutback in pollution from what we had just a few years ago.

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Q: With all the anti-pollution devices now on cars and the cleaner fuels now mandatory, have automobiles ceased to be the biggest contributors to pollution?

A: No, automobiles are still the primary contributors to air pollution in this basin.

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Q: Do you have specific goals for how clean the air will be in the near future?

A: We have set a timetable--actually, the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) has set a timetable--giving specific dates by which they want us to achieve certain air quality standards. This breaks down to four basic areas where we are in violation of federal standards: fine particulates, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and ozone.

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Q: How close are you to meeting these standards?

A: We anticipate we will probably meet the nitrogen dioxide standard within the next year or two. We have not been in violation of this standard for the last two years, but we have to wait a time frame of three years before applying for re-designation.

We will achieve the carbon monoxide standard by the year 2000 and the fine particulates by the year 2006. We believe we’ll have the ozone down to the standard by 2010.

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Q: At that point, is the pollution problem over? Will we have clear skies and no more health hazards?

A: If we attain the standards, the health hazards will be significantly minimalized, although no one can say at this point they will be completely eliminated.

As for the number of days you will be able to look outside your window in the San Fernando Valley and see the San Gabriel Mountains--almost every day. The exceptions would be the days when you have a lot of coastal marine moisture, fog and marine haze, coming inland.

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Q: That would be an astonishing improvement.

A: There should be benchmarks along the way. By the year 2000 we might not be seeing any more Stage 1 episodes.

The improvements will be a benefit not to just our area. The smog that originates in L. A. has been clearly traced to the Grand Canyon and (other) places in the Southwest.

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Q: How are we doing so far this year?

A: As of today, we have had 15 Stage 1 episodes. That’s a little higher than last year, as predicted.