COLLEGE FOOTBALL / GENE WOJCIECHOWSKI : Aren’t Coaches Supposed to Be Able to Judge Talent?

What’s thicker: Joe Paterno’s glasses or the skull of the bozo coach who voted Penn State No. 6 in the latest USA Today/CNN poll?

This must have been some ballot. Our best guess of Coach Moron’s top six: 1) Nebraska, 2) Yeshiva University, 3) Allegheny County Community College, 4) Notre Dame, 5) Nebraska (Kearney campus), 6) Penn State.

Of course, we’ll never know who made a fool of himself, mostly because the USA Today/CNN poll protects the identities of the 62 voting coaches. And mock the media members who vote in the Associated Press poll all you want, but at least they don’t hide behind anonymity (and we’ve got the angry West Virginia postcards from 1993 to prove it).

As an educational service to the coach who stuck it to Joe Pa, we devote this week’s column to an easy-to-use national championship handicapping system.

Your odds:

PENN STATE (2-1)

PROS: Of the five undefeated teams, the No. 2-ranked Nittany Lions have the easiest path to a perfect season. Penn State travels to Illinois on Saturday, then returns home for games against Northwestern and Michigan State. The Illini will cause some problems, but Northwestern won’t.

As for Michigan State, expect the Spartans to be in their weepy Win-One-For-Coach-

George-Perles mode. Perles is gone at season’s end, the loser of an ugly power struggle in East Lansing. The Spartans will hang tough for a quarter, maybe two, and then Penn State will blow their helmet flaps inside out.

After that, the Nittany Lions will face either Donald Duck, USC or Arizona in the Rose Bowl. Oregon’s Quack Attack makes for a heartwarming story, but please--an Oregon Stuns Penn State headline? We don’t think so.

A USC-Penn State rematch would be interesting if you conveniently ignore two things: The Nittany Lions dominated the Trojans in the Sept. 10 game and the same thing would happen Jan. 2.

And Arizona? Great defense, but the offense couldn’t keep up with Penn State. In four of their last five game, the Wildcats have scored 16 or fewer points.

BOTTOM LINE: Penn State is loaded and Paterno doesn’t lose many games when he has five weeks to prepare, as he would for the Rose Bowl.

CONS: The schedule. Victories over Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State and, say, Oregon, don’t exactly send voter adrenaline rates off the charts.

Also, if No. 1 Nebraska wins its Orange Bowl game the night before, some of the incentive for Penn State is gone. The chances of the Nittany Lions jumping over a 13-0 Cornhusker team aren’t good, no matter how convincingly they beat their Rose Bowl opponent. Sadly, Penn State might need the help of others.

NEBRASKA (3-1)

PROS: The top-ranked Cornhuskers control their own poll destiny. If they convincingly beat Iowa State on Saturday and Oklahoma on Nov. 25, they finish the regular season 12-0 and go to the Orange Bowl, where they’ll probably face Miami or Florida State. Win that game and the national championship is Nebraska’s. Simple.

The Cornhuskers can do it too. Their offensive line makes blocking sleds wince. Their defense doesn’t get the publicity it deserves, but ask Colorado Coach Bill McCartney if he has seen anything better. Their I-back, Lawrence Phillips, is standard Nebraska issue: tough, fast and durable. Their quarterback, Brook Berringer, continues to make believers. And then there is Tom Osborne, whose coaching staff is among the best in the business.

CONS: The Iowa State and Oklahoma games are on the road. The Cornhuskers can’t afford to struggle in either one, or else they risk losing some first-place votes. And expect Oklahoma to play harder than usual, because it might be the final game for embattled Sooner Coach Gary Gibbs.

Even if Nebraska reaches the Orange Bowl undefeated and No. 1, it still has to beat the Hurricanes on Miami’s home field or defeat the Seminoles in their home state. That could be a problem, considering that since 1984, the Cornhuskers are 0-5 in Orange Bowl games and a combined 0-7 against Miami and Florida State in postseason games.

ALABAMA (4-1)

PROS: The luckiest team in America has the kind of finishing schedule that could sway voters. If unbeaten and sixth-ranked Alabama runs the table against No. 20 Mississippi State at Starkville, No. 3 Auburn at Birmingham, No. 4 Florida at the Southeastern Conference Championship and then, say, No. 8 Florida State in the Sugar Bowl, you could make a very strong case for a Crimson Tide share of the national title.

Alabama has the incredibly consistent Jay Barker at quarterback, a great defense, a very solid running attack and hasn’t had a bad break since someone told Coach Gene Stallings he looks good in houndstooth.

CONS: A one-dimensional offense. That killer schedule. The law of averages.

MIAMI (5-1)

PROS: Positioned nicely at No. 5, the Hurricanes could be as high as No. 3 or No. 4 if Auburn loses to Alabama or Florida loses to Florida State. Miami’s schedule is kind: Pittsburgh at the Orange Bowl, a trip to Temple and a visit from unpredictable Boston College to close the regular season. Win those games and it would be hard for the Orange Bowl committee to ignore the Hurricanes.

As for matchups, the Hurricanes, led by Warren Sapp, have one of the few defensive lines capable of giving Nebraska’s offensive line a challenge. Miami also would have the home-field advantage, a huge factor in a national championship game.

CONS: Quarterback Frank Costa doesn’t remind anyone of Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Craig Erickson, Steve Walsh or Gino Torretta.

The biggest problem for Miami, though, is that one loss against Washington. The Hurricanes have to jump over at least two teams in the AP poll--Nebraska and Penn State--and as many as four, depending on what Alabama, Auburn and Florida do. Things are a little easier in the coaches poll. The Hurricanes are ranked No. 3.

AUBURN (8-1)

PROS: The Tigers are two victories away (they play Georgia at home and Alabama on the road) from a second consecutive 11-0 season. NCAA sanctions prevent them from playing in a bowl game, but it might not matter.

How about this for a hypothetical: Auburn is 11-0 (again), Nebraska loses in the Orange Bowl, Penn State loses or struggles in the Rose Bowl, Alabama loses in the Sugar Bowl or Florida wins. Who’s No. 1? Our guess is that Auburn will get enough AP votes to make a run at the national title.

Sure, the Tigers are serving time in the NCAA big house, but that doesn’t prevent them from finishing No. 1 in the AP poll. And yes, they don’t play a bowl game, but that’s not the fault of this team or Coach Terry Bowden. They’ve won every game they played, and if the Tigers finish as the only undefeated team, they’d be our likely choice as No. 1.

CONS: Out-of-sight, out-of-mind mentality of voters could kill Auburn. The Tigers’ season ends Nov. 19. The next AP vote is Jan. 3, after the bowl games.

Also, a victory over Alabama at Crimson Tide-friendly Birmingham is no gimme. Plus, the Tigers need lots of assistance on Jan. 1 and 2.

FLORIDA (9-1)

PROS: The Gators face South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Florida State to finish the regular season and play Alabama in the SEC championship. A 4-0 finish like that gets noticed, as would a Sugar Bowl victory against Miami or a possible rematch against the Seminoles.

If the AP rankings stay the same going into January--Nebraska, Penn State, Auburn, Florida--the Gators could jump to No. 1 with Cornhusker and Nittany Lion losses on bowl day. That’s because even if Auburn ends the regular season 11-0, the Gators will finish with two more games, both of them against probable top 10 opponents--Alabama and Miami or Florida State. If Florida is 13-1 and Auburn 11-0, voters might lean toward the Gators because of the extra quality victories.

CONS: That loss to Auburn. Mutiny at the quarterback position. Florida’s record against the Seminoles (1-3 under Coach Steve Spurrier, 1-6 since 1987). The possibility of Sugar Bowl officials ignoring a Florida-Florida State rematch and instead choosing TV-attractive Notre Dame for the Gators.

FLORIDA STATE (50-1)

PROS: The Seminoles almost always finish strong and could do it again with victories over Notre Dame, North Carolina State and Florida. After that, they’d probably play in the Sugar Bowl, where the Seminoles could face undefeated Alabama. If Florida State wins and Nebraska and Penn State lose, Coach Bobby Bowden might own a share of the national championship.

CONS: Multiply Miami’s problem by two. The Seminoles not only have a loss, but they have a loss to the Hurricanes. To position themselves for a chance at the national title, the Seminoles have to finish ahead of Miami in the regular-season poll.

Even then, it might not be enough. If Penn State loses in the Rose Bowl and Miami and Florida State win their bowl games, voters might use head-to-head results to determine No. 1. If so, the Hurricanes were decisive winners over the Seminoles earlier in the season.

Also remember that coalition rules allow the Sugar Bowl to overrule a Gator-Seminole rematch.

TEXAS A&M; (1,000-1)

PROS: Could finish the regular season with a 10-0-1 record. If everyone else loses their bowl games and Auburn gets ignored and . . . ah, forget it. The Aggies have no chance.

THE REST

As usual, Nebraska’s Osborne is grousing about the likelihood of facing Miami or Florida State in the Orange Bowl. OK, so it isn’t geographically fair. But if Osborne thinks his annual complaints will have any effect on the Orange Bowl committee’s selection process, think again. “Absolutely not,” said a bowl official. “No way. That will have no influence.” Instead, the Orange Bowl will take the highest-ranked team available. If it is Florida State or Miami, tough. . . . One last Nebraska item: Despite impressive games from Berringer and Phillips in last Saturday’s 45-17 victory over Kansas, the Cornhusker coaching staff chose offensive tackle Zach Wiegert as its nominee for Big Eight Conference player of the week honors. Why? Wiegert received a perfect grade in each of the 70 plays against the Jayhawks. “We just thought that was such an amazing thing,” said Osborne, who couldn’t remember another player in his 30-year career who had done it.

Top 10

As selected by staff writer Gene Wojciechowski

No. Team Record 1. Penn State 8-0 2. Nebraska 10-0 3. Auburn 9-0 4. Miami 7-1 5. Colorado 8-1 6. Florida 7-1 7. Alabama 9-0 8. Florida State 7-1 9. Kansas State 6-2 10 Oregon 7-3

Waiting list: Texas A&M; (8-0-1), USC (6-2), Mississippi State (7-2), Utah (8-1), Colorado State (8-1).