THE NFL : Here Comes Jimmy and the Change Gang

Ah, late November. The time for division races to heat up, for exciting matchups that hold playoff implications, and--oh, yes--for all those coaching rumors.

The Houston Oilers have already made a change, but they certainly won’t be alone. There could be as many as six to 10 changes by next season, with Jimmy Johnson to be mentioned at least once in every coaching search.

Here’s a closer look at the uncertain coaching situations around the league:

Carolina: The Panthers have just about given up hope that Joe Gibbs will change his mind and leave the broadcast booth. That leaves two college coaches as the front-runners: Miami’s Dennis Erickson and Florida’s Steve Spurrier. If Carolina can’t get either, then the Panthers will look at Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Tony Dungy, Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Butch Davis and Philadelphia Eagles coach Rich Kotite, if he is fired by new Owner Jeffrey Lurie.

Detroit: With Wayne Fontes’ ouster almost a foregone conclusion, look for Owner William Clay Ford to check out Dungy first. Others who could get a look: Pittsburgh Steelers defensive coordinator Dom Capers, Davis, San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan and 49ers defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes.

Houston: There’s a clause in new coach Jeff Fisher’s contract that allows him or the team to void the deal after this season. The Oilers have indicated they want Fisher for the long term, in part because they’re convinced he would be in demand.

Philadelphia: It’s looking more and more as if Lurie will remove Kotite, despite the Eagles’ success this season. But there are two ways Kotite could remain: If the Eagles get to the NFC championship game or if Lurie can’t convince Johnson to come to Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay: Sam Wyche is almost certain to go. Johnson would be a logical candidate, because the Bucs could offer him full control over personnel matters. But the imminent sale of the team could hurt their chances of getting him.

Cincinnati: If General Manager Mike Brown decides he has had enough of David Shula--a big if, considering Brown’s snail-like pace at making decisions--then look for him to promote offensive coordinator Bruce Coslet.

Denver: When an owner starts saying his players need more discipline from the head coach, that’s not a good sign. But Pat Bowlen believes Wade Phillips is growing into the job, so Phillips could survive. Then again, perhaps Bowlen will rethink his decision last year not to hire Shanahan. Bowlen may also take a look at Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Paul Hackett.

Indianapolis: Mercurial Owner Robert Irsay indicates Ted Marchibroda is safe for 1995. Then again, Irsay once indicated he wouldn’t leave Baltimore, no? Irsay might allow Director of Football Operations Bill Tobin to promote brother Vince, the team’s defensive coordinator. Then again, Irsay might not do something so logical.

Raiders: Has Al Davis had enough of Art Shell? Davis will never tell. But this year’s disappointing season could spell trouble. Replacements? Use your wildest imagination, because anything’s possible with Davis.

Seattle: Has Tom Flores had enough in his second incarnation as head coach? Flores insists he hasn’t, but don’t expect that to stop the Erickson rumors from resurfacing. Another potential candidate is defensive coordinator Rusty Tillman.

Rams: By next year, the Rams will likely be playing in a new city, and perhaps with a new coach. The Rams haven’t turned the corner under Chuck Knox. Up next? Look for a run at Johnson, and maybe even a look at Mike Ditka.

New Orleans: Jim Mora appears safe for now. Owner Tom Benson likes Mora, and since the coach has done a decent job with a team in transition, he figures to stick around.

New York Giants: Dan Reeves has had huge disagreements with George Young, and Reeves has been rumored to be interested in the Carolina and Tampa jobs. But Reeves will not back out of his commitment in New York unless he is pushed.

Miami: So you think owner Wayne Huizenga has put all those Johnson rumors to rest by giving Don Shula a three-year contract? Well, don’t be surprised to see more speculation about Johnson, especially if the Dolphins falter down the stretch.

New York Jets: Pete Carroll has been on the job for less than a year, so it’s difficult to imagine him being booted. But imagine the Jets giving up on General Manager Dick Steinberg--a distinct possibility if the team doesn’t make the playoffs--and Carroll could be a casualty of a new front-office boss.

San Francisco: If George Seifert doesn’t get the most out of his team--i.e., win a Super Bowl--Owner Edward DeBartolo Jr. would consider replacing him with Johnson. And unless Johnson got the Dolphins’ job, he would think seriously about going to San Francisco.

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The brief tenure of the run-and-shoot is just about over. Good riddance.

Now that the Oilers have fired offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride, the Atlanta Falcons are the only team in the league employing a pure run-and-shoot offense.

During its heyday in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, the run-and-shoot was in place in Atlanta, Houston and Detroit, and the Buffalo Bills’ no-huddle offense was an offshoot. But now, the Oilers have junked the run-and-shoot, the Lions have been using a tight end in their offense the last two seasons, and the Bills’ offense has struggled so much that the team has attempted to fix it by slowing the pace by huddling before some plays.

In addition, two run-and-shoot quarterbacks, former University of Houston stars Andre Ware and David Klingler are on the outs in the NFL. Ware was waived by Detroit last year, hung around briefly with the Vikings and is now in the Canadian Football League. And Klingler, a bust so far in Cincinnati, has been replaced by Jeff Blake.

Falcons quarterbacks coach Mouse Davis, who introduced the run-and-shoot in the USFL in 1983, says the offense “has so much fan appeal. It makes the game so much more exciting.”

Only one problem, Mouse. It doesn’t win championships, which is why the system is nearly extinct.

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--Look for the 49ers to pursue Cowboys receiver Alvin Harper when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next year. The 49ers aren’t satisfied with John Taylor’s performance, and Harper would be the perfect complement to Jerry Rice.

--Look for the Rams to make a final decision on moving in the first 10 days of December. St. Louis continues to be the heavy front-runner.