ANALYSIS : If Raiders Want to Ring in New Year, Changes Are Needed

Players were whispering it: We are loaded. Coach Art Shell was grudgingly acknowledging it: This Raider team might be my best. And the media were boldly predicting it: Raiders in the Super Bowl.

Those were the bright, heady days of summer, when the team, its roster brimming with big names, was looking forward to a glamorous preseason trip to Spain, a triumphant tour through the 16-game regular season and a glorious return to the Super Bowl.

Size those rings.

Five months later?

The cold reality of winter has settled in. Super Bowl? A playoff spot is questionable.

The Raiders might have looked like a Super Bowl contender on paper. But that paper has been crumpled and trashed, along with game plan after game plan.

Shell surveys the ruins of a once-promising season, losses and controversies littering the landscape, and wonders where it all went wrong.

“If I truly had the answer, it would be corrected,” he says.

Perhaps it still can be. With four games left, starting Monday night in San Diego, the 6-6 Raiders find themselves one of eight teams fighting for two playoff spots. That’s assuming that Miami wins the East, San Diego wins the West, and Cleveland and Pittsburgh, both 9-3, will make it, one as the Central winner, the other as a wild card.

What do the Raiders have to do to make the playoffs? Here are five suggestions.

1. Try working on the same page.

Quarterback Jeff Hostetler and Shell get into a dispute about the play-calling. Receiver Tim Brown complains about the play-calling. Others complain about offensive coordinator Tom Walsh.

The word most commonly whispered these days when discord on the Raiders is brought up is agenda . Everybody seems to have his own. Too many people seem to be more worried about themselves than about the common good. This team’s new motto should be “Commitment to Ego.” The players don’t have faith in the coaches, and the coaches don’t have faith in the players.

Shell has to take the reins, assert his authority, tell everybody else to shut up and try to reinstall a team mentality. Call the plays himself if necessary. He’s the captain of the ship. He should be prepared to personally steer it to safety. If not, he’ll go down with it. What does he have to lose?

2. Try giving the ball to Tom Rathman .

Much was made of the observation that the Raider passing game was too one-dimensional when Brown became Hostetler’s only option on too many occasions. Well, the same can be said of the running game. It took the Raiders six games to realize that Harvey Williams, not Ty Montgomery, should be the starting tailback.

Now how long is it going to take them to realize the running game has also become too predictable? At fullback, Rathman is mainly asked to block. And considering the poor protection Hostetler has been getting of late, Rathman can’t do enough of that. But making him a key player in the offense would give opposing defenses something else to worry about.

With the San Francisco 49ers, he was a multipurpose back. He rushed for 1,902 yards and gained another 2,490 as a pass receiver in his eight years with the club, scoring 34 touchdowns. He has carried the ball eight times and has caught eight passes over the last six games with the Raiders.

Give this man some work.

3. Try blocking better.

On paper, this looks like an overpowering offensive line. Left guard Steve Wisniewski is a perennial Pro Bowl player. Left tackle Gerald Perry is considered one of the most solid in the game. Right guard Kevin Gogan was a key lineman for the last two years for the Dallas Cowboys, both Super Bowl-winning years. At center, Don Mosebar has started 86 consecutive games for the Raiders and has long been considered the anchor of this line. Only third-year pro Greg Skrepenak at right tackle lacks experience.

So where’s the beef? The Raiders rank 13th among the 14 teams in the AFC in rushing offense and have given up 37 sacks, tied for second most in the league with the Denver Broncos behind only the Houston Oilers.

No wonder Hostetler finds himself wandering around, trying to remember where he is and, perhaps, why he agreed to come here in the first place. For a Hall of Fame offensive lineman like Shell, this is embarrassing.

4. Try instilling some discipline .

After leading the league in penalties a year ago and coming within one of the league record of 149, the Raiders are back on top this season with 111. This isn’t a matter of playing the old Raider way, of employing a hard-hitting, intimidating style that puts fear in the opposition.

The only fear these days comes from Shell and his staff when they hear yet another whistle because so many of this season’s penalties have occurred on offense, killing drive after drive. Offside, false start, illegal motion, holding--the Raiders have done it all. The offensive unit sometimes looks as if its players are meeting each other for the first time.

With all that is at stake, can it be lack of concentration? With all the big names on this unit, can it be lack of talent?

5. Try playing defense for four quarters.

Overall, the Raiders have played well defensively. Fifth in that category in the AFC, they have been dominating at times.

But not in the fourth quarter, when they have been outscored, 98-49. Not in the closing minutes of games against the Chargers and the Miami Dolphins, when they couldn’t hold leads. Not in the final minutes against the Houston Oilers and the New Orleans Saints when a couple of breaks--a kick that hit the crossbar and a bad coaching decision by the Saints’ Jim Mora--saved the Raiders from two more collapses.

Cornerback Albert Lewis blames it on a lack of maturity.

Whatever the problem, on defense and offense, the solutions must be found, immediately. A bright season is growing dim. Time is short.

The Raiders haven’t tumbled into elimination yet. But from where they stand, it looks a lot closer than does the Super Bowl.

AFC Playoff Picture

The three division winners, plus the three teams with the best record among non-division winners, advance to postseason play.

DIVISION LEADERS

TEAM DIV. W L Pittsburgh** Central 9 3 Cleveland** Central 9 3 San Diego* West 9 3 Miami* East 8 4

THE CONTENDERS

TEAM DIV. W L Kansas City West 7 5 N.Y. Jets East 6 6 Denver West 6 6 Buffalo East 6 6 Raiders West 6 6 New England East 6 6 Indianapolis East 5 7 Seattle West 5 7

* Leads division; ** Tied for division lead

Listed in order of tiebreaker criteria