PRO FOOTBALL : PLAYOFF ANALYSIS : With Parity, It’s All Possible

Parity became parody this weekend as one of the most hair-raising Decembers in recent NFL history suddenly became one of the most confusing.

Let’s see if we have this straight:

--Buddy Ryan still might make the playoffs.

--The San Diego Chargers might not.

--The Buffalo Bills are going away.

--Wayne Fontes is not.

--If 73 different things happen, among them something that has to do with the alignment of the planets and Dan Reeves’ necktie, the New York Giants will make the playoffs.

--If the Raiders can’t summon the courage to finally beat the Kansas City Chiefs, they won’t.

--The Philadelphia Eagles have lost five consecutive games, but can make it all better with two consecutive victories.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won three consecutive games for the first time in 12 years, yet were officially eliminated in the middle of that third victory.

--The first weekend of the NFC playoffs could consist entirely of teams from the Central Division.

--The quarterbacks for the final weekend of the AFC playoffs could be named O’Donnell and Testaverde.

According to the league office, with 22 of the 28 teams still eligible for the Super Bowl, this ranks as the NFL’s wildest finish ever.

Considering that the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos are among those 22 teams, that also ranks as one of the NFL’s most misleading statistics ever.

But it is still chaotic. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys, who must have been studying tiebreaking procedures before the final play in their 19-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns on Saturday.

After Troy Aikman had completed a five-yard pass to Jay Novacek that wound up inches short of a potential game-winning touchdown, a question was raised:

“Who was the primary receiver on the play?”

Barry Switzer, the coach, said it was Kevin Williams.

Troy Aikman, the quarterback, said it was Daryl Johnston.

Ernie Zampese, offensive coordinator, said it was Alvin Harper.

And the man who caught the ball?

Novacek said the primary receiver was Michael Irvin.

“You can say what you want about the rest of the season, but the only measure of a team is what happens to them late in the year,” said Leslie O’Neal, defensive end for the fading Chargers. “This is the time when you just cannot make mistakes. This is the time when great players make big plays.”

And then cheer for other great players to mess up.

The most compelling scene of last weekend was not in Dallas, but in adjoining San Diego hotel rooms, where 49er linebackers Gary Plummer and Ken Norton Jr. were watching the Cowboys on television.

Vinny Testaverde has never had such enthusiastic fans.

“You’d have thought the wall was coming down, the way we banged on it,” Plummer said. “Ken would bang on it from his side of the wall, then I would bang on it from my side. Toward the end of that game, we were so excited, we were beating on the wall the whole time.”

Not that any of this matters now.

After several weeks of calisthenics, the Cowboys and 49ers will meet in San Francisco on Jan. 15 in a Super Bowl disguised as an NFC championship game.

“But we don’t know that for sure,” Aikman protested last weekend. “That game is not on our schedule yet. We might not even see San Francisco again this year.”

Don’t mind him. He’s as unsettled as every other NFL observer.

The only theory that makes sense is that two years of mass player movement because the new free agency and salary cap have created a balance that was never before possible.

A system that had been criticized by all is now being applauded by fans and appreciated by those who play for losers turned winners.

“I was in Minnesota, visiting (club President) Roger Headrick, and he was saying that our agreement has enhanced competitive balance more than anything in the league,” said Gene Upshaw, executive director of the players’ union. “If a team has a four-game winning streak, next thing they know, they have a four-game losing streak.

“People write off Arizona, and then Arizona is back in it. New England was out of it, and now they are back. It really is true that any team can beat any other.”

A look at the playoff picture:

AFC

In: Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins.

Any day now: The Chargers need only a victory over the demoralized New York Jets Sunday to clinch an AFC West title. If they can’t win that game, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.

The mess at the bottom: The Raiders, Chiefs, Bills and New England Patriots are battling for the final two spots. Thanks to a bit of scheduling luck, the survivors here will be decided on the field.

The game this weekend in Buffalo between the Patriots and Bills--with Frank Reich replacing Jim Kelly as the Bills’ quarterback--probably will determine one wild-card team.

The winner of the Christmas Eve showdown between the Raiders and Chiefs probably will determine the other. What the Raiders have done to the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs have done to the Raiders, winning eight of their last nine meetings.

We don’t think sore-footed Joe Montana has received any get-well cards from Winston Moss. On second thought, maybe he has.

Probable playoff pairings: No way the Chargers win their remaining two games, not with the Steelers coming to town Christmas Eve.

So the Chargers play host to the Patriots in the first round, while the Raiders visit the Browns and quarterback Testaverde in the first playoff game to end in a 0-0 tie after regulation.

Waiting to play second-round games at home would be the Dolphins with Dan Marino and the Steelers with, uh, Neil O’Donnell.

NFC

In: The Cowboys and 49ers.

Any day now: A victory by the favored Minnesota Vikings in Detroit Saturday will give them the NFC Central title.

The mess at the bottom: The Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Giants and Eagles will fight for the wild-card spots.

Either the Giants or Eagles will be knocked out when the teams meet this weekend. Common sense would favor the Eagles, but then again, Bubby Brister has just been installed as their new quarterback, replacing Randall Cunningham.

Last week Brister said he kept awake during his years on the sideline by “drinking lots of beer.” If the Eagles win, they need only a victory at Cincinnati to ensure a spot.

Another spot should go to the Bears, who could split remaining home games against the Rams and Patriots and still finish 9-7 and with tiebreaker advantages over the Cardinals.

Besides, with Steve Walsh’s poor recent play, the Bears have finally been given an excuse to get Erik Kramer back into the lineup. And few quarterbacks are as good in December and January as Kramer.

We hope the final NFC spot will go to the Lions and Coach Fontes, whose personal resurgence is matched by his team’s. Earlier this year, he stood on the sidelines looking confused. Now he looks downright cuddly.

But that spot will probably be stolen by the superior talent of the Packers, who need victories over Atlanta in Milwaukee and at Tampa Bay in the season finale.

Probable pairings: It should be a pedestrian first weekend, with the Bears visiting the Vikings and the Packers at the Eagles.

The second round will not be much, either. The only team that can defeat the Cowboys at home is the 49ers. And vice versa.

But that third weekend at Candlestick Park! Only then will the confusion end.