CSUN Football’s Chances: 1 in 4 : Referendum: Three of the four proposals would eliminate the school’s biggest program.

As expected, the fate of four Cal State Northridge athletic programs will be left in the hands of the student body, the school announced Tuesday.

After weeks of research, Northridge released four athletics funding scenarios, three of which would result in the elimination of football and include student fee hikes.

As detailed Sunday by The Times, football, women’s basketball, men’s soccer and men’s swimming will be cut if any of the referendum options are defeated.

After soliciting feedback on the proposals, President Blenda J. Wilson is expected to announce in mid-January which option will be placed on the student ballot.

The Associated Students election is set for March 8-9. The school has failed in two previous attempts to pass referendums this year.

“I don’t know if it’s going to work,” Athletic Director Bob Hiegert said. “I’m hopeful, but we’re still in the same climate when we asked them to support us last time.”

The scenarios, released by Wilson after lengthy analysis by a faculty committee, cover a broad spectrum. The athletic budget for 1995-96 could range from $2.92 million to $4.38 million. Athletics, which faces a deficit of $700,000 next year, currently has a budget of $3.6 million.

What the referendum options mean to students in terms of what they get for their money:

* Under the best-case scenario for athletics, students each would be charged $27 each semester and all existing programs would be funded at a higher level. Women’s soccer also would be added, perhaps for the 1995 fall season. This is the only proposal in which the school’s NCAA Division I-AA football team would be retained. Total annual budget: $4.38 million.

* Under another option, students would pay $19 per semester. Football would be cut, but funding for the remaining programs would increase. Women’s soccer would be added. Total budget: $3.84 million.

* A third plan calls for students to pay $15 per semester to maintain athletics on a cost-containment level. Football would be axed, but the plan would ensure that all remaining programs would be funded at current or slightly higher levels. Women’s soccer would be added. Total budget: $3.67 million.

* There is also a worst-case scenario. If any referendum scheme is shot down by student vote, Northridge would slash athletics to 14 teams, the bare minimum required for Division I membership. Football, women’s basketball, men’s soccer and men’s swimming would be eliminated and women’s soccer would not be added. Total budget: $2.92 million.

Hiegert predicted that there is a remote possibility Wilson might choose the worst-case scenario as the best for Northridge--eliminating the need for another election--but believes she is committed to staging another referendum.

Hiegert conceded that trimming women’s basketball, a program that has struggled mightily over the past few seasons, would make joining a major conference difficult. Basketball carries the highest annual tab, $219,000 for 1994-95, of any women’s sport.

In 1994-95, the price tag for men’s soccer was $80,000. Men’s swimming cost $53,000 and football cost $530,000. Football, which faces elimination under three scenarios, seems in particular jeopardy.

“I’m glad there’s one (option) that has football in it,” Hiegert said. “It’s hard to keep football in the quotient when you’re dealing with balancing budgets, gender equity and such.”