COMMENTARY : Logic Was Right, but It Ignored Thunder Gulch

Another year, another Kentucky Derby loser.

Although the losing streak isn’t close to the one for Derby favorites (16 years), this handicapper hasn’t picked a winner in the world’s most famous horse race since Sunday Silence in 1989.

It might have bothered me before, but I knew this year that I didn’t have any idea who was going to get the roses. Believing that the favorites in the race were all vulnerable and an outsider would win, I picked Eltish.

Right logic, wrong 3-year-old. Eltish ran like a colt who had run only one prep race before the Derby, finishing sixth after looming as a threat early in the stretch.

Thunder Gulch won, and although it probably shouldn’t have been--based on his pre-Blue Grass Stakes races this year--it was quite a surprise. While other handicappers have correctly picked longshots Unbridled, Sea Hero and Go For Gin in recent years, nary a one was heard singing the praises of Thunder Gulch before this year’s Derby.

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Here are some other opinions on the 121st Kentucky Derby:

The general consensus is that Timber Country will be favored in the Preakness. Maybe so, because of the colt’s trouble in the Kentucky Derby, but doesn’t the 2-year-old champion, who hasn’t won a race since the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, always have an excuse? He supposedly didn’t like the track at Santa Anita, although he always seemed to work well on it, and then there was the traffic trouble Saturday, hardly surprising for a horse with his come-from-behind style in a field of 19. Could it be Timber Country is another Strodes Creek, a highly regarded colt who has yet to deliver?

Giving credit where credit is due, the dosage system, a mathematical formula classifying horses by their pedigree, had six dual qualifiers in the Kentucky Derby field. Three of them were Thunder Gulch, Tejano Run and Timber Country, the first three finishers.

Talkin Man, who looked so brilliant controlling the pace in the Wood Memorial, faded to 12th after chasing the hot pace set by Serena’s Song. Wild Syn, who had slow fractions when winning the Blue Grass, was eased Saturday, finishing about 40 lengths behind Thunder Gulch. It just goes to show how any horse can look great when allowed to dictate matters up front.

Jockey Randy Romero said last week that Wild Syn was the best horse he had ridden since Personal Ensign. Guess he forgot about Go For Wand, the champion 2-year-old filly of 1989 and the champion 3-year-old filly the next year.

Afternoon Deelites, who came out of the race with a sore throat, probably didn’t want any part of 1 1/4 miles, but he wasn’t helped by being four or five wide the entire trip. Even so, he was beaten by only seven lengths.

Although Serena’s Song finished 16th, it is nonsense to bash Lukas’ decision to run her against the boys. This isn’t a great group of colts, and the filly set wicked fractions (:45 4/5 for the half-mile and 1:10 1/5 for three quarters) and was still on the lead after a mile, before tiring. Remember, Snow Chief pressed similar fractions in the Derby, faltered badly, then came back two weeks later and won the Preakness.

The relative unimportance of post positions was verified again. Thunder Gulch left from No. 16, Tejano Run from 14 and Timber Country from 15. Too much is made of the draw.

Watching the race, it was hard not to wonder how Larry The Legend might have fared. With his tactical speed, he probably would have had a good position--as Thunder Gulch did--and he would have had jockey Gary Stevens, who can do no wrong these days.

The biggest overlay on the Kentucky Derby card at Churchill Downs wasn’t Thunder Gulch. Rather, it was Romarin, who paid $15.60 for his gate-to-wire score in the Early Times Turf Classic.

Would anybody be surprised if Thunder Gulch either won the Preakness or went the route of Go For Gin, who has been winless since the 1994 Kentucky Derby?