Good Start for Summer Films but . . . : Movies: The pace is ahead of last summer’s record take, but this season’s box office is likely to finish as the industry’s second-best ever. To many it’s apparently not enough: Where is this year’s ‘Forrest Gump’?

The good news about this summer’s movie box office is already in: The pace is about 13% ahead of last summer’s record $2.2-billion take, according to industry analyst A.D. Murphy of the Hollywood Reporter.

The problem with the rest of the summer is that there is no $300-million-grossing “Forrest Gump” on the horizon to carry the rest of the season. Nor, for that matter, do there seem to be any must-sees, like “True Lies,” “The Client,” “The Mask” or “Clear and Present Danger,” all of which grossed $90 million or more last year, to keep audiences in the moviegoing habit through early September.

Even with such likely strong performers as “Nine Months,” “Under Siege 2,” “Waterworld” and “The Net,” this summer’s cushy lead appears likely to erode by August, says Jeff Blake, Columbia/TriStar head of distribution. At best, it will end up even with last year.

Still, $2.2 billion over a roughly 18-week period is hardly a reason for Hollywood to go into mourning. While this summer won’t match last year’s record of eight films that grossed more than $100 million, at least four will reach nine figures: “Batman Forever,” “Pocahontas,” “Apollo 13” and “Die Hard With a Vengeance.” And “Casper” may get there after it plays in lower-priced theaters.

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One notable accomplishment of the summer’s first half is the return of the bread-and-butter middle-range hit ($60-million to $90-million grossers). They include “The Bridges of Madison County,” “Crimson Tide,” “Congo” and “Braveheart.” With the exception of “Congo,” all derived most of their income from the ever-expanding adult audience. They could be joined by “Species” and possibly “Nine Months.”

Action continued to dominate as a genre, with each successive blowout taking a big chunk out of the previous one’s hide. Consequently, films like “Crimson Tide” and the new “Die Hard,” which were expected to cruise past $100 million, stole some of each other’s thunder. As a result, “several films won’t reach their maximum potential this year,” says Paramount president Barry London.

According to one Disney insider, “if we’d had ‘Crimson Tide’ in April we would have done $125 million.” Fox distribution chief Tom Sherak adds that the upside on the disappointing “Mighty Morphin Power Rangers: The Movie” would also have been more sanguine if the film had been ready closer to Easter.

Those weren’t the only films that would have benefited from opening against fewer higher-profile neighbors. “Judge Dredd,” “Johnny Mnemonic,” “First Knight” and even “Bridges” are cited as movies that could have done better outside of the ruthlessly competitive summer playing time.

One of the ironies of the current bull market for movies, according to Sherak, is that even though new theaters are being built at a rapid pace, holdover movies are still being squeezed out prematurely. Instead of a greater variety of movies, theater owners all want to play the same movie.

For instance, “Batman Forever” was on 4,300 screens at the same time “Pocahontas” was on about 3,500. So, of the 22,000 to 25,000 first-run screens in the country, about a third were playing just two films.

The surprise hit of the season so far is “Congo,” which Paramount’s competitors dubbed the best-marketed film of the summer. “They made it look like ‘Jurassic Park II,’ ” says one studio executive. “And it wasn’t.”

London credits the choice of the opening date (June 9) and Michael Crichton’s highly salable concept. “Congo” was definitely counter-programming, as was MGM’s ‘Species,” which turned up the weekend after the Fourth of July holiday against only “First Knight,” and took in more than $17 million.

The most underrated performer of the season has to be “Pocahontas,” which has the onus of constantly being compared to “Lion King.” “People approach our new animated movies as if they were sequels,” says one Disney sage. “They are all unique.”

Disney’s competitors admit that they could never have grossed $100-million-plus on an animated film about a Native American maiden. “Pocahontas” should end up grossing about half as much as “Lion King” (which took in $330 million)--or about as much as “Beauty and the Beast.” True, it won’t make $1 billion in profits, as “Lion King” did. But it could potentially do half as well.

The summer’s most successful “class” movie is not “Bridges,” which played a little too old to carry it to $100 million, but “Apollo 13.” With great reviews and Tom Hanks as its star, it became the adult must-see film and then expanded to almost every demographic.

With so many action and family-oriented films this summer, however, the big question is what happened to all the comedies. Did no one learn a lesson from “Sister Act” or even last Christmas’ surprise blockbuster “Dumb and Dumber”? With the summer season often planned two years in advance, why did no one bother to ring up Robin Williams (except for his small role in “Nine Months”), Bill Murray, Eddie Murphy, Whoopi Goldberg or Steve Martin?

There were romantic comedies. But after “While You Were Sleeping” tapped that vein in late spring and early summer, “Forget Paris” and “French Kiss” seemed anemic by comparison. For the summer’s second half, “Nine Months” and the teen comedy “Clueless” have a chance to give audiences a laugh in between explosions. Other potential comic relief will come from Fox’s “Bushwhacked” with Daniel Stern, Disney’s “Operation Dumbo Drop” and Sony’s “The Babysitters Club.”

At this juncture, the biggest potential grosser on the horizon is “Waterworld.” Good, bad or indifferent, Kevin Costner’s action spectacle has enormous awareness and definite interest, according to Universal’s senior vice president of distribution, Nikki Rocco.

Considering that only “Under Siege 2” will have any hard-action life left in it by the end of July, “Waterworld” has a fairly open field. And, word on “The Net,” with Sandra Bullock, is upbeat. The drama “Dangerous Minds,” with Michelle Pfeiffer, has a chance as adult fare and Denzel Washington’s “Virtuosity” and New Line’s “Mortal Kombat” do, too, if the action market is not yet sated by the time they open in August.

Otherwise, August looks like a dumping ground, says one studio executive: lots of titles, little interest. Therefore grosses, and audience good will, could erode. And summer 1995 will have to settle for second best.