Movies : To the Moon, Oscar! : ‘Apollo 13’ appeared to be the major Academy Award contender--until ‘Sense and Sensibility’ came along. Let the elbowing begin.

The battle of the sexes, the tussle between male and female that’s been central to so many movies, figures to be played out yet one more time, in the struggle for nominations for the 68th annual Academy Awards.

With ballots scheduled to be mailed out at the end of this week, it’s the consensus of veteran Oscar watchers that the two films with the surest lock on nominations, as well as the two most likely contenders for the best picture statuette itself, are “Apollo 13” and “Sense and Sensibility,” both films with strong gender associations.

A self-consciously heroic film about men doing what men have to do, “Apollo 13” looked for a long time as if it weren’t going to have any competition at all in the best picture category. But then “Sense and Sensibility,” the Jane Austen-inspired comic romance about sisters in love, captivated Hollywood and now it looks like a boys vs. girls race down to the wire.

As far as the three other best picture slots go, all the likeliest suspects have major question marks attached to them. “Leaving Las Vegas” swept so many critics’ awards that academy members are going to have to play catch-up on video. Will this beautifully made film be too downbeat for them or will they discover how much it has in common with Hollywood formula despite its surface misery and reward it with a nomination? Probably the latter.

“The American President” brings up a different set of questions. Overhyped by industry gossip before the fact, it opened to largely indifferent reviews and a ho-hum box office. Will any of this matter, or will the academy, as it did last year with “The Shawshank Redemption,” insist on championing a film no one is burning to see?

Questions also hang over the Italian “Il Postino/The Postman.” Ineligible for the foreign-language Oscar, it is being seriously talked up for best picture by Miramax. Though the film is admired around town, best picture nominations for foreign-language films are rare (“Z” got one in 1969, “The Emigrants” in 1972, “Cries and Whispers” in 1973), and it’s unclear if this picture will join the group.

Three other films are also contenders for best picture slots. Despite, or perhaps because of, all the fuss he stirs up, the academy has traditionally been friendly to Oliver Stone, and if “JFK” got a best picture nomination, “Nixon” might as well. Ditto for “The Bridges of Madison County,” an academy-type romance that made all the right moves but may have been forgotten by now. And if “Braveheart” doesn’t get a nomination, it won’t be because of lack of effort by either director Mel Gibson or Paramount, which took home the trophy for the year’s most impressive video box.

Best director nominations often follow the films, but that branch of the academy is so prickly little is for sure. However, the swell of affection for “Sense” should carry Ang Lee to a nomination, and Ron Howard, a loyal son of Hollywood, can count on one for “Apollo 13” as well.

Sheer skill will likely propel Mike Figgis to a nod for “Leaving Las Vegas,” and could do the same for Oliver Stone and “Nixon” and Michael Mann and “Heat,” though observers predict that another talented director, “Casino’s” Martin Scorsese, will be turned away. Other contenders, who carry the same caveats their films do, are Rob Reiner for “The American President,” Clint Eastwood for “The Bridges of Madison County,” Mel Gibson for “Braveheart” and, the longest shot of all, the respected Ulu Grosbard for “Georgia.”

The best actor category is quite strong, so much so that one of the year’s most universally applauded performances, Jonathan Pryce in “Carrington,” must be listed as no stronger than a possibility. The only sure things look to be perennial favorite Anthony Hopkins in “Nixon” and the across-the-board critics’ group choice, Nicolas Cage in “Leaving Las Vegas.”

In almost as good a position are John Travolta in “Get Shorty” and the late-arriving Sean Penn in “Dead Man Walking.” The other major contenders, in addition to Pryce, are Richard Dreyfuss for “Mr. Holland’s Opus,” Ian McKellen in “Richard III,” maybe Al Pacino in “Heat,” possibly James Earl Jones in “Cry, the Beloved Country,” and, if the membership isn’t tired of writing in his name, Tom Hanks in “Apollo 13.”

More crowded, if possible, is the best actress group, which has way more than five legitimate contenders. The top three are Emma Thompson for “Sense and Sensibility,” Meryl Streep for “Bridges” and Sharon Stone in the ill-starred “Casino.” But just about as strong are another trio, Elisabeth Shue in “Leaving Las Vegas,” Nicole Kidman in “To Die For” and Susan Sarandon in “Dead Man Walking.”

At least as deserving, if not more so, but listed as only possible because of the crush is Jennifer Jason Leigh in “Georgia.” And difficult to totally rule out are academy favorites Michelle Pfeiffer in “Dangerous Minds” and Annette Bening in “The American President.” The only thing to be said for sure is that whoever eventually wins this category will have gone through a hell of a tussle.

Surprisingly, the best supporting actress category is not as jammed with contenders. Three players do seem like sure things, starting with the likely winner, Joan Allen in “Nixon,” and including Kate Winslet in “Sense and Sensibility” and Mira Sorvino in “Mighty Aphrodite.”

Also frequently mentioned are Kathleen Quinlan in “Apollo 13” and Anjelica Huston in “The Crossing Guard.” More distant possibilities include the underappreciated Mare Winningham in “Georgia,” Stockard Channing in “Smoke” and any of the three actresses (Diane Verona, Ashley Judd, Amy Brenneman) in “Heat.”

Equally uncertain is the best supporting actor group. Looking the most sure are Ed Harris for “Apollo 13” and Kevin Spacey, who had several memorable roles but is likeliest to be nominated for “The Usual Suspects.” And if the “American President” bandwagon proves to be a reality, the most deserving beneficiary might be Michael J. Fox.

The other main contenders all did worthy work but in films that may or may not have been widely enough seen. They include Tim Roth in “Rob Roy,” Don Cheadle in “Devil in a Blue Dress,” Treat Williams in “Things to Do in Denver When You’re Dead,” John Leguizamo in “To Wong Foo, Thanks for Everything, Julie Newmar” and both Val Kilmer and Jon Voight in “Heat.”

Given how unoriginal a year this was in Hollywood, it’s not surprising that the field for best original screenplay is not exactly lush. Strongest picks look to be a pair of complex works, Christopher McQuarry’s intricate blueprint for Bryan Singer’s “The Usual Suspects” and the Stephen J. Rivele, Christopher Wilkinson and Oliver Stone script for “Nixon.”

After that, the competition looks wide-open, ranging from unconventional choices like Barbara Turner’s “Georgia” and Paul Auster’s “Smoke” to mainstream items “Mr. Holland’s Opus” (Patrick Sheane Duncan) and “Braveheart” (Randall Wallace). Biggest question mark is Aaron Sorkin’s script for “The American President,” which is enmeshed in a credits battle the academy may not want to stir up again.

More of a scramble looks likely in the best adapted screenplay category. Emma Thompson is certain of a nod for her “Sense and Sensibility” screenplay, as is Richard LaGravenese, who performed the show business equivalent of a miracle with “Bridges of Madison County.”

Fighting it out for the other slots are likely to be Mike Figgis for “Leaving Las Vegas,” Scott Frank’s success with Elmore Leonard’s “Get Shorty,” Buck Henry’s handling of “To Die For,” Tim Robbins’ work on “Dead Man Walking” and William Broyles Jr. and Al Reinert for “Apollo 13.” A strong group that almost, but not quite, makes you forget how weak the rest of the competition was.