Top Pro Prospects Run Hot, Cool

In our annual salute to the NCAA tournament, here’s a pro perspective on the best players, put together with the help of four NBA personnel experts.

Past the top 12, it’s pretty speculative and it’ll change dramatically in the coming weeks. Here’s how it looks:

1. Tim Duncan, Wake Forest, 6 feet 10, 240, junior: A more athletic version of Brad Daugherty. Different kind of young man; insiders say he may return for his senior year.

2. Ray Allen, Connecticut, 6-5, 195, junior: No, he’s not the next Michael Jordan, either. More like Jerry Stackhouse with a better jump shot.

3. Marcus Camby, Massachusetts, 6-11, 220, junior: Made a big move this season. If he declares, NBA team doctors will go over his cardiac history in earnest.

4. Allen Iverson, Georgetown, 6-1, 175, sophomore: Explosive, a point guard who’s more of a scorer than a playmaker. “Athletically, he’s off the board,” says a scout. Not a good bet to come out since Georgetown Coach John Thompson has never lost a star early.

5. John Wallace, Syracuse, 6-8, 225, senior: The argument for staying in school. Pulled out of the ’95 draft, had a big senior year.

6. Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Cal, 6-10, 225, freshman: Coach Todd Bozeman once railed that speculation about Jason Kidd’s departure was “trying to tear our family apart.” Here goes another family. However, as Abdur-Rahim’s seven-point tournament debut proved, young is young.

7. Stephon Marbury, Georgia Tech, 6-1, 180, freshman: Natural scorer and a surprisingly good playmaker, given his big New York City rep. Says he’ll turn pro if he makes the lottery, so get ready.

8. Keith Van Horn, Utah, 6-9, 227, junior: Pride of Diamond Bar, cinch lottery pick whenever.

9. Lorenzen Wright, Memphis, 6-11, 230, sophomore: Not ready but on track.

10. Kerry Kittles, Villanova, 6-5, 180, senior: Wildcats’ leader in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals.

11. Antoine Walker, Kentucky, 6-10, 230, sophomore: Players in Rick Pitino’s system are hard to evaluate since they play briefly in a human-wave attack that overwhelms opponents, but this young man is easy to spot.

12. Ryan Minor, Oklahoma, 6-7, 220, senior: Tough and competitive. Admirers see another Dan Majerle.

13. Kobe Bryant, Lower Merion (Pa.) High School, 6-5, 195, senior: Son of ex-Clipper Joe, Kobe is hyped as “Grant Hill with a jump shot.” Joe has told scouts Kobe is considering the NBA. A general manager, asked if he’s interested, says, “You’d have to be.”

14. Kenny Thomas, New Mexico, 6-9, 250, freshman: Power forward with all-around skills. Led Lobos in scoring as they improved from 15-15 to 28-4.

15. Todd Fuller, North Carolina State, 6-11, 255, senior: No physical prodigy but led the ACC in scoring.

16. Adonal Foyle, Colgate, 6-10, 260, sophomore: Barely tested in the Patriot League but big, young and athletic. No one knows what to think but everyone wants to see more.

17. Jelani McCoy, UCLA, 6-9, 220, freshman: Has to get stronger and develop a post game but has big-time tools.

18. Samaki Walker, Louisville, 6-9, 220, sophomore: Struggled after a good freshman season but remains a prospect.

19. Walter McCarty, Kentucky, 6-10, 230, sophomore: Spiderman. Small forward in pros.

20. Danny Fortson, Cincinnati, 6-7, 245, sophomore: A good player but squatty guys are hard to project, there being more Byron Houstons than Charles Barkleys.

21. Roy Rogers, Alabama, 6-9, 238, senior: A shot blocker who came out of nowhere as a senior.

22. Erick Dampier, Mississippi State, 6-11, 255, junior: Has size and blocks shots but is limited.

23. Jacque Vaughn, Kansas, 6-1, 195, junior: If he can develop some shooting range, he can be a star, but doesn’t have it yet.

24. Priest Lauderdale, Olympikos, Greece, 7-2, 240: After a nothing career at an NAIA school, he developed overseas. Few pros have seen him, but they’ve all heard of him.

25. Toby Bailey, UCLA, 6-5, 185, sophomore: Talented, impatient, but has things to work on: consistency, maturity, jump shooting. Now, says a personnel director, “He could be a star but he also could fail.”

26. J.R. Henderson, UCLA, 6-9, 215, sophomore: Has shown he can play but has to take it up another notch or two. Pros wonder about toughness.

27. Paul Pierce, Kansas, 6-6, 200, freshman: Larry Brown, friend of Kansas Coach Roy Williams, thinks the Inglewood High grad is the most promising Jayhawk.

28. Maurice Taylor, Michigan, 6-9, 235, sophomore: Most gifted of the post-Fab Five Wolverines. “Typical Michigan player,” says a personnel director. “A lot of jive. You’d like to see him grow up, compete and play.”

29. Charles O’Bannon, UCLA, 6-6, 205, junior: Admirers love his athleticism but at the season’s start, he would have been halfway up this list. Has to dig down and work on ballhandling and shooting because he’ll have to be an NBA guard.

Others of note:

Felipe Lopez, St John’s: The 6-5 sophomore buckled beneath the next-Jordan hype. “I don’t think you’d say his shooting and judgment are questionable,” says a personnel director. “They’re not very good. That’s the thing about this high school stuff. Two years ago, I guarantee you somebody would have taken him in the top 10.”

Robert “Tractor” Traylor, Michigan: The pros are intrigued by this 6-6, 300-pounder but would like to see if he ever gets close to anything resembling playing shape.

Jermaine O’Neal, a 6-10 senior at Columbia (S.C.) Eau Claire High, he isn’t expected to make a test score so he can play as a college freshman. Pros have been told he wants to make the jump.

Steve Nash, Santa Clara: Fine playmaker but marginal athletically and as a shooter (32% on threes).

Brevin Knight, Stanford: Smaller version of Vaughn, will play in NBA if his jumper improves.

THE VAN GUNDY ERA, TICK, TICK, TICK . . .

Not wanting to miss a chance to rush lemminglike in one direction or the other, New Yorkers celebrated the Knicks’ upset of the cocky Chicago Bulls by anointing a new savior who had all of Pat Riley’s virtues, if less hair, Jeff Van Gundy.

Meanwhile, outgoing Coach Don Nelson was ripped for insensitivity to Patrick Ewing and John Starks, and for not killing the players in practice the way Riles used to.

“This is a working basketball team,” Derek Harper said. “Jeff’s going to do the same things he learned under Riley.”

Of course, everyone spent last season complaining about the Emperor Riles, his brutal practices and favoritism of Ewing and Starks, whom teammates called “Riley’s son.” Had Riley stayed, they would certainly have balked on him too.

For his part, Nelson conceded his unsuitability for the project--”It’s nobody else’s fault other than my own”--but turned his candor loose on the roster on his way out of town.

On Ewing: “Personally, I think he needs to be the second-best player on the team now, at his age.”

On Starks: “The cut and dried statement about John Starks is that Hubert Davis is the better player, hands down. I know it, you know it, and the players know it.”

The classy Ewing refused to trash Nelson. The intemperate Starks rejoiced, adding he was now willing to back up Davis but never would have accepted that role under Nelson.

The tabloids filled up with heartwarming facts about Van Gundy: Riley wanted to take him to Miami but the Knicks wouldn’t let him go, that sort of thing. There were appeals to sign Van Gundy to a new contract.

“Someone put me at 50,000,000-1,” Van Gundy said. “I’m a realist but I’d put a dollar down on those odds.”

How about a buck at 100-1?

UNLOVELY LITTLE WAR: NBA VS. ABDUL-RAUF

Frankly, I prefer it when the NBA office sticks to its mission, making money, rather than assuming a role as guarantor of national values.

Of course, its objection to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf’s protest was grounded in economics, not idealism--it was bad public relation$--so it sprang into action, making a national figure out of a little guy in far-off Denver with a peculiar interpretation of Islamic teachings.

However one may disagree with Abdul-Rauf’s stand, one must recognize:

--He had been doing it discreetly all season. He didn’t raise a gloved fist or take a seat during the national anthem. Usually he stayed in the dressing room.

--He said nothing until asked about it when it became an issue on Denver’s overheated talk radio stations, those havens for otherwise unemployable demagogues. He then ran out some stuff about “oppression” and “tyranny,”--he pronounced it TIE-ranny--and really got himself in trouble.

--There is no language in his contract or the collective bargaining agreement about the anthem. It’s in the NBA operations manual. A court would have to decide if his contractual pledge to obey unspecified rules abrogates First Amendment rights.

--The manual also says players can’t change their numbers, a rule Jordan defied during last spring’s playoffs--five times. The league fined Jordan’s team, and kept that a secret for months despite inquiries, and suspended no one.

At least, Abdul-Rauf has learned the price of unpopular principles to a man making a fortune in a spectator sport--$31,000 a game. The league has made the world safe for democracy again and can go back to basketball.

NAMES AND NUMBERS

Pothole in the road to 70: Reassessing themselves in the wake of their loss at New York, the Bulls discovered they had been letting Scottie Pippen play with back, knee and ankle injuries. They announced he would sit out a week or two.

Bad news, Celtic fans: They conducted that hard-hitting executive review--and everyone passed! “I think M.L. [Carr] has done a good job as a first-year coach in a difficult environment,” said equally overmatched owner Paul Gaston. “He’s commanding increasing respect, despite what you read in the newspapers. He gets his phone calls returned right away, which, I think, is a pretty good measure of effectiveness.” Comment: Huh?

Now we know what was missing in J.R. Rider’s game: his mother. Ejected last week, the Minnesota Timberwolves’ post-adolescent was headed back to argue more when mom Donna intercepted him and told him to go to his room. Mrs. Rider is now on the list of candidates to succeed Coach Flip Saunders.