Oscar at T-Minus One : The critic’s picks: ‘Apollo 13’ is a go for launch, but underdog ‘Babe’ could spoil the liftoff in the best picture race.

If this year’s Academy Awards competition were a major motion picture, “Oscar’s Revenge” would be the obvious title.

After a series of contests that were child’s play to predict, the race for the 1995 statuettes has been the despair of veteran Oscar watchers. While in previous years it was clear that “Unforgiven,” “Schindler’s List” and “Forrest Gump” were going to dominate, no such consensus has emerged as yet.

That’s partly because the contest for best picture has proven fiendishly difficult to get a handle on, with the momentum for the various contenders ebbing and flowing like the passions of a teenager’s heart. What it’s finally come down to is whether the space shot has enough fuel left to hold off a fast-closing pig.

The space shot is “Apollo 13,” the second-most-nominated film this year with nine, a traditional studio picture that has been a top contender since the day it came out. It was in fact such a favorite for so long that momentum inevitably shifted away from it when “Sense and Sensibility” made its appearance.

But when “S&S;” missed out on a best directing nomination and “Apollo 13” director Ron Howard took home the DGA trophy, the pendulum swung back to the Tom Hanks-starring vehicle. And though that film has to be listed as the favorite, there is no counting out that most determined of porkers, “Babe.”

The surprise picture of the year, “Babe” refuses to go quietly into the night. Its backers are the most passionate and, if it weren’t for the presence of fellow feisty underdog “The Postman (Il Postino),” it would have an excellent shot at pulling off a “Rocky”-type surprise. Momentum for it does continue to rise, just as it did in the days right before the nominations, and though a victory would still be an upset, it would be rash to say it couldn’t happen.

The pick: “Apollo 13.”

The races in the other major categories look as follows:

Best actor. There is sentiment on the side of both Richard Dreyfuss for “Mr. Holland’s Opus” and Massimo Troisi, who died in order to finish “Il Postino.” And there is respect for what Sean Penn accomplished in “Dead Man Walking” and for Anthony Hopkins’ work in “Nixon.” But “Leaving Las Vegas’ ” Nicolas Cage, who has won everything except the New Hampshire primary, is not going to be denied this year.

The pick: Nicolas Cage.

Best actress. Though the academy has been friendly toward Meryl Streep and Emma Thompson, they seem least likely to triumph this time around. Possible winners because they play prostitutes, a profession the academy seems to admire, and because they noticeably extended their range, are Sharon Stone (“Casino”) and Elisabeth Shue (“Leaving Las Vegas”). But they both have to contend with Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), who is both a performer the academy likes a lot (four nominations in the last five years) and someone who has never gone home a winner.

The pick: Susan Sarandon.

Best supporting actor. Despite the feeling for James Cromwell and “Babe” and putting aside how much people delight in Tim Roth and enjoy watching Brad Pitt, this is essentially a two-man race. Kevin Spacey had a hell of a year in 1995, with appearances in “Seven” and “Swimming With Sharks” to go along with his nominated work in “The Usual Suspects.” But Ed Harris, a consistent, committed actor for well more than a decade who gave the linchpin performance in “Apollo 13” may have a bit more going for him.

The pick: Ed Harris.

Best supporting actress. Possibly the toughest major category to call, more daunting even than best picture. Counted out by most observers are Mare Winningham in “Georgia” and Kathleen Quinlan in “Apollo 13,” but after that it’s a three-way toss-up. Joan Allen probably gave the best of the nominated performances, but “Nixon” was not well-liked by the voters. Mira Sorvino is a second-generation actor who was charming in “Mighty Aphrodite.” But while those two duke it out, the award just might go to Kate Winslet, whose fresh performance represented what was best in “Sense and Sensibility.”

The pick: Kate Winslet.

Best director. Given the absence of expected nominees Ron Howard and Ang Lee, this is a curious category indeed. Chris Noonan for “Babe” and Michael Radford for “Il Postino” will likely cancel each other out, as will the directors of the two seriously dark films, “Leaving Las Vegas’ ” Mike Figgis and “Dead Man Walking’s” Tim Robbins. That leaves the field open to the well-liked Mel Gibson and “Braveheart,” which did collect 10 nominations, after all.

The pick: Mel Gibson.

Best original screenplay. Both “Nixon” and “Mighty Aphrodite” suffer from the mixed reception their films received, and “Toy Story” may not be able to overcome the traditional bias against comic films, especially those with seven writers listed in the credits. Once again it’s a two-film race, with the old-fashioned Randall Wallace script for “Braveheart” going against Christopher McQuarrie’s smart and satisfying “The Usual Suspects.”

The pick: Christopher McQuarrie.

Best screenplay adaptation. A particularly strong category this year, including “Apollo 13,” “Babe,” “Leaving Las Vegas” and “Il Postino,” any one of which could potentially be winners. But finally the charming spectacle of an Oscar-winning actress like Emma Thompson coming up to the podium in a new role, with Jane Austen thrown into the bargain, will probably be too tasty for the academy to resist.

The pick: Emma Thompson.

Best foreign language film. With the most admired foreign films like “Il Postino” and “Shanghai Triad” ineligible because of the academy’s briar patch of regulations, the choice is among less-well-known pictures. The two leading candidates appear to be “Antonia’s Line,” an agreeable piece of feel-good feminism from the Netherlands, and “All Things Fair,” a coming-of-age drama directed by the previously nominated Bo Widerberg and starring his son. If you like voting longshots, the most potent one looks to be the Algerian film, “Dust of Life,” which happens to be set in Vietnam. It’s been that kind of a year.

The pick: “Antonia’s Line.”