Risking Striking Out Again

It’s that time of the year again. The crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, the yelp of the bench jockey. Every hitter is a young DiMaggio, every pitcher a potential Koufax and visions of pennants dazzle in the distance.

Ordinarily, it’s not my practice to make predictions. They come back to haunt you. Remember, I’m the guy who thought that the project to make a movie on the life of Gen. Patton was “the worst idea I ever heard in my life.” I might be a Hollywood mogul today if I kept that little gem to myself.

I even asked Disney’s man, Joe Reddy, what in the world Walt was thinking of in building an amusement park to be called “Disneyland.” Amusement parks were passe, I assured him.

But we don’t learn from our mistakes, do we? Accordingly, I should like to offer up a few observations on the upcoming baseball season in the sure expectation I will be acutely embarrassed by them come September. Here goes.

First of all, a few things that won’t happen:

--For the 67th year in a row since it was set in 1930, no one will break Hack Wilson’s mark of 190 runs batted in.

--No one will break Wilson’s National League record of 56 homers, also set in 1930.

--No one will break Lou Gehrig’s American League record of 184 RBIs set in 1931. Hank Greenberg came closest with 183 in 1937.

--No one will break Roger Maris’ mark of 61 homers, nor will anyone break Ruth’s 60. But look for Albert Belle to come closest now that he is in a lineup with Frank Thomas. After all, Maris had Mickey Mantle hitting right behind him; so no one dared to throw him bad pitches. Belle will get strikes to hit if “the Big Hurt” is in the on-deck circle.

--No one will bat .400 this season. No one has since Ted Williams did with .406 in 1941. No one has batted .400 in the National League since Bill Terry hit .401 in 1930. Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb batted .400 three times each, but the closest any National Leaguer has come in 67 years since Terry is Tony Gwynn, who hit .394 in 1994.

--No one will win 30 games in a season. No one has since Denny McLain won 31 in 1968. Someone named Jack Chesbro won 41 back in 1904, but the ball was a beanbag. Ed Cicotte of the White Sox won 29 in 1919; that’s how they knew the World Series was fixed that year when he couldn’t get anybody out and lost Game 1, 9-1. The last National Leaguer to win 30 was Dizzy Dean in 1934.

--No one will break Rickey Henderson’s record of 130 stolen bases. Nor will anyone break Lou Brock’s National League record of 118.

--No one will become commissioner of baseball, which is a little like having a prison without a warden or a court without a judge.

Now, as to things that will happen:

--Home runs will continue to fly out of big league parks like popcorn. It’s a pitcher’s nightmare. There were 4,962 home runs hit in the major leagues last season. As usual, the American League had the most, 2,742. Just to pick a year at random, in 1917, there were 136 home runs hit by the American League and 202 hit by the National League--338 dingers versus 4,962 in 1996. A difference of 4,624.

--Belle and Thomas could break the old tandem mark of 115 home runs hit in a season by teammates, set by Maris (61) and Mantle (54) on the Yankees in 1961. If Belle hits 50 home runs again, that will come out to more than $200,000 per home run.

--The National League Cy Young Award will be won by an Atlanta Brave pitcher. It always is, isn’t it? Greg Maddux won it four years in a row (but the first with the Cubs), Tom Glavine won it the year before that and John Smoltz won it last year.

--The Colorado Rockies will break the one-season home-run record of 257 set by the Baltimore Orioles last season. They have already tied the NL record of 221 set by the New York Giants in 1947 and tied by the Cincinnati Reds in 1956. Runs scored in a mile-high stadium should not count against your earned-run-average. Or it should be divided by three. Citing the 257 hit by the Orioles, it should be noted the 1927 Yankees, who were called “Murderers’ Row,” hit 158 home runs. And, of that, Ruth hit 60 and Gehrig hit 47. The Cleveland Indians only had 26 home runs that year. They had 218 last year. The modern battle-cry of baseball should be “T-i-m-b-e-r!”

--Marge Schott will be fined for saying Mussolini meant well.

--Pitchers will almost never pitch a complete game. The most complete games by a pitcher last year was 10 for Pat Hentgen of Toronto. In the National League Curt Schilling led with eight.

--The Cubs will not get in the World Series. Again.

--The Yankees will get in the World Series for the 35th time and will win their 24th.

--Randy Johnson of Seattle will strike out 300 batters, but no one will come close to Nolan Ryan’s total of 383 in 1973 or Sandy Koufax’ 382 in 1965.

--Don Sutton, who is 11th on the all-time list in games won, tied with Nolan Ryan at 324 and is tied for 10th (with Big Ed Walsh) in shutouts with 58 and ranks fifth in strikeouts with 3,574, still won’t get voted in the Hall of Fame. It must be something he said because it can’t be something he hasn’t done.

But so what?! Play Ball!