The Big 3 Are Even Bigger

For citrus lovers, this is the sweetest winter in some time. In a rare produce triple crown, prices of all three major fresh winter fruits--lemons, navel oranges and grapefruit--are lower than they have been in the last five years.

In fact, all three are substantially lower than they were last year. As of last week, the wholesale price of lemons in Los Angeles was roughly 25% less than at the same time a year ago. Navel oranges were down 23% and grapefruit, 16%.

Part of the credit goes to large harvests--all three are near-record sizes. But there’s a little more to it than that.

Cutting prices further is the fact that last year’s crop was a big one as well. Although none of that fresh fruit is on the market, it’s still affecting this year’s prices.

That’s because what couldn’t be sold last year was diverted into processing--mostly turned into juice. Now there’s so much juice that there’s no place to put this year’s excess except out on the shelves.

In a bad year, that wouldn’t matter nearly as much. But this year’s navel orange and lemon production are predicted to be 8% larger than last year’s (California’s oranges are up 9%; lemons are up 10%).

Though grapefruit is down 5%, that doesn’t make much of a dent in the face of the overall citrus glut, especially when fewer people are eating it every year. According to the USDA, grapefruit consumption has fallen every year since 1992.

What’s more, this year’s big crop may be a precursor of several more to come. Both Florida’s and Texas’ citrus industries are recovering from disastrous freezes. As those new trees continue to mature, they will produce more and more fruit.