Money Says This One’s a Lock to Be a Lockout

Now to find out if Commissioner David Stern is really worth $8 million a year: The board of governors meets in New York this week to figure out when to announce it is reopening the collective bargaining agreement.

That’s how far things have gone. They’re way past “if” and working on “when.”

Nor is “when” far off. Management sources say Stern doesn’t want the players sitting around until July 1, wondering if he’s going to lock them out. He wants them to know he’s going to lock them out July 1.

“Instead of the question all year being, will he lock them out or won’t he lock them out, we’ll be reopening our labor agreement,” says a team official.

“If we do, it will be incumbent on both parties to be productive between now and July 1. If we’re not, everybody will deserve what happens.”

Stern has cause for alarm. The players were supposed to get 48% of league revenue in salaries.

The contract said the league could reopen if it rose above 51.8%. It is now 55%.

Nevertheless, the owners aren’t the only ones unhappy about this deal.

“No, I wouldn’t be surprised if they reopen,” said Billy Hunter, executive director of the National Basketball Players Assn. “I would like to revisit the agreement as much as they would.”

The union is rightfully alarmed to see 30% of its members at the minimum of $272,500 as teams save money for stars. To pay Shaquille O’Neal $12.9 million, you need an underclass of Jon Barry, Mario Bennett and Shea Seals.

There’s something else going on, however. Sources say Stern is close to completing a new TV deal, more than doubling the old four-year, $1.1-billion package to more than $2.25 billion.

On top of that, each team recently got a $5-million bonus from NBC, in a revenue-sharing deal from the old contract.

This season’s salary cap is $26.9 million. It will pass $30 million next fall and might even double the $16 million it stood at only three seasons ago.

In other words, the industry is awash in money. Stern acknowledges, “This is not about demonstrating hardship.” In fact, there is no hardship. All the parties have to do is figure out how to divide the riches in a mutually satisfactory manner.

Of course, they’ll spend the next nine to 12 months posturing and vilifying. The NBA will announce it is reopening. Talks with the union will produce mutual exasperation. On July 1, Stern will lock the players out. In September, as the opening of camps nears, everyone will get serious.

The public is advised to regard it as a noisy conflict between the merely well off and the obscenely wealthy and let them work it out themselves.

YES, WE HAVE SOME IDEAS OF OUR OWN

* Minimums should go up dramatically.

Unfortunately for the rank and file, stars deserve more since this is a star’s game. The result is a “Hollywoodization” of payrolls. The big cheese gets tens of millions, as Tom Cruise does, and the guys carrying the sets get peanuts.

Let’s bump the little guys from $272,500 to $450,000-$600,000, depending on their level of experience, subtracting the money from the overall cap. It’s small potatoes for the owners, important money for the players.

* There has to be a drag on stars’ salaries.

Not even the union seems comfortable with all the $100-million deals. The highest-paid nine players--the top 2%--now get 15% of the proceeds.

Let’s give Stern a luxury tax, lower than that two-tier 50% and 100% system he wanted last time but higher than baseball’s 35% limited-to-five-teams plan.

* Young players should stay in place longer.

Why should the Minnesota Timberwolves have to offer $103 million to a youngster two years out of high school, only to see his agent break off talks, vowing never to return?

Why should they have to pay $128 million to secure Kevin Garnett before he has even averaged 18 points?

No good reason. Let’s make the kids restricted free agents in three years, instead.

If it won’t fly, we’ll make it five years before the top 10 picks in the draft are free agents, four years for the next 10 and three years for the rest of the first round.

* Young players should be older.

Let’s make 21 the minimum age for entry. Little girl gymnasts may or may not be ready for world-class competition at 11, but experience suggests most young hoopsters are better served, professionally and emotionally, to take it more slowly.

AND BACK IN THE ALL-TOO-REAL WORLD

Chuck Daly could have been rocking back in his commentator’s seat and pondering the Orlando Magic’s plight. Instead, he’s presiding over it.

What does a 67-year-old grandfather, who was labeled the Prince of Pessimism in happier circumstances, do when Penny Hardaway starts with his usual knee and psyche problems and Nick Anderson and Horace Grant look DOA? Call Ted Turner and ask for his telestrator back? Recall Little Penny from his book tour?

“We’re struggling to find who we are, to find an identity,” Daly says. “I don’t see us as a defensive team, I don’t see us as an offensive team, I don’t see us as a rebounding team. . . .

“I think Penny is a bright kid, very direct, but I don’t think he wants to take center stage. I think he’s a little shy, but I don’t really know him well.

“The responsibility is huge when you’re the franchise player. It’s a terrific weight. I told him, ‘I don’t like the process of throwing you the ball every time and saying, “Do it!” but I’ll do what I have to do.’ ”

Of course, it’s only the first week, but then Daly is signed for only three years.

“Let me give you my timetable,” he says, with the assurance born of a benefits-crammed $15-million contract.

“[Magic Vice President] Pat Williams probably said it best: ‘At my age, I don’t even buy green bananas.’ ”

FACES AND FIGURES

Weekly Bull pathos: Now we know how long Dennis Rodman could stand for Phil Jackson bringing him off the bench and limiting his minutes: one week. Rodman mailed one in at Atlanta, getting two points, three rebounds, committing an offensive foul that wiped out Michael Jordan’s game-tying basket and noting, “The interest level just isn’t there.” In that case, Jordan snarled he should “go home.” . . . A Chicago paper reported General Manager Jerry Krause invited some Bull assistant coaches and Iowa State Coach Tim Floyd, the presumed heir apparent, to his stepdaughter’s wedding, but didn’t invite Jackson. Krause’s wife, Thelma, wrote an angry letter, replying: “The wedding of our daughter was an elegant, intimate affair to which 140 people were invited. From our side, all were friends with whom we had a long-standing social relationship. We do not have a long-standing social relationship with Phil and June Jackson, nor do we really have any sort of social relationship at all. Tim and Bev Floyd have been very good friends for a number of years now.” . . . Insiders notice Jackson isn’t starting Krause’s pet, Toni Kukoc, whose scoring they could use. Meanwhile, Jordan is being swarmed over by defenders and shooting anyway, which is why he’s at 38%. Says Jordan: “They’re throwing the kitchen sink at me.”

Tim Duncan bears a slight resemblance to Brad Daugherty, but the Cleveland broadcaster laughs when he hears people compare them. “He’s way more athletic than I was,” Daugherty says. “To me he’s a lot like Kevin McHale. He’s got the solid low-post moves. From an athletic standpoint, he’s more like David Robinson than me. He’s got the footwork of a McHale, the athleticism of Robinson. That’s a heck of a talent.” . . . Reports persist Rick Pitino, who hasn’t liked many of his off-season acquisitions, is shopping rookie Chauncey Billups, the third pick in the draft. Denver officials confide Pitino offered Billups for Bobby Jackson, their good-looking No. 23 pick--and they turned him down. . . . Casting a shadow over the Mavericks’ 3-0 start, point guard Khalid Reeves jettisoned Coach Jim Cleamons’ Bulls-style triangle offense, ran pick-and-rolls and led the Mavericks back from a 20-point deficit to win at Seattle. Said Reeves: “I don’t think [General Manager] Don Nelson wants to take years to win. We’ve got to go with something simple and easy to catch on to. It’s the players’ game.” . . . Quiz: What do you call NBA coaches who try to put in the triangle offense without Jordan? Answer: Unemployed. . . . Grant Hill on Hardaway’s announcement he’d skip next summer’s World Championships: “Penny said he doesn’t like to leave the country for longer than a couple of weeks. I think he could have come up with a better excuse than that.”