Next Season’s Baseball Expansion Might Lead to Home Run Derby

It will probably happen in late May. Somebody will throw out the ceremonial first “juiced” ball theory, in response to the two dozen players who are closing in on 20 home runs.

It will happen as sure as the swallows return to Capistrano and the average time of games rises to 3 1/2 hours. It happened in 1987--when the ball really was juiced--and again in ‘93, which will provide a good parallel for next season.

It will happen, of course, because there will be two new teams pulling players out of a talent pool that gets shallower by the year. Baseball’s pitching shortage will reach critical mass, and the result just might be a home run record.

Ken Griffey and Mark McGwire will have 10 or 11 more Class AAA guys to tee off on. The American League will have another homer dome. The National League will have a new beachhead in the crisp, dry Arizona climate that makes the ball travel so well in spring training.

Don’t get too upset. It’ll be fun.

Nobody ever said expansion would improve the quality of play. It never does. But the addition of two teams--which will be built from scratch during Tuesday’s expansion draft in Phoenix--will make 1998 a very interesting season.

Of course, this is not good news for traditionalists. The game probably was purer when there were two eight-team leagues and the players drove trucks to augment their income in the off-season, but Major League Baseball has extended its borders four times since 1961 and each expansion has added to the game’s rich history.

1961-62: The Angels, Washington Senators, Mets and Astros (then the Colt 45s) expanded each league to 10 teams.

Lest anyone fall into the throes of outrage over the conditions under which McGwire and Griffey may challenge Roger Maris’ home run record, remember that Maris set the record in a year when the A.L. expanded by 25%. And, if not for that expansion, there would not have been the Amazin’ Mets of 1969.

1969: The four-team expansion of ’69 was a pivotal juncture in baseball history, because it spawned Major League Baseball’s move to divisional play.

The Royals and Seattle Pilots (soon to be the Milwaukee Brewers) joined the A.L. The Expos and Padres entered the N.L., with Montreal becoming the first major league club established outside the United States.

1977: The American League moved to two seven-team divisions with the addition of the Mariners and Blue Jays, further establishing baseball as a multinational pastime.

The Blue Jays--under the direction of an innovative young executive named Pat Gillick--developed quickly into a contender and nearly reached the World Series in 1985. They would eventually become the only expansion era team to win back-to-back world titles.

1993: The Marlins and Rockies became the first expansion teams of the big-money era, their wealthy owners spending liberally to avoid the long developmental periods previous expansion clubs had to endure.

The Rockies reached the playoffs in only their third year, and the Marlins just became the fastest expansion club to win a world championship.

The upcoming expansion draft will be similar to the one that created the Rockies and Marlins, with both new front offices eager to create a competitive team to capture the imagination of their fans quickly. Both clubs will spend the days leading to the draft at the general managers’ meetings--which also will be held in the Phoenix area--and lay the groundwork for possible trades, then draft 35 players each from the unprotected rosters of the other 28 teams.

The Devil Rays and Diamondbacks are in a unique situation. They will be able to expand their range of selection to virtually anyone on a major league roster by agreeing in advance to trade potential draftees for protected players.

Both clubs also have the resources to acquire front-line free agents, though neither team is expected to lay out huge sums. Trying to reach the playoffs the first year would be foolhardy--there aren’t enough good free agents to put the Devil Rays on an immediate par with the Yankees and Orioles, or the Diamondbacks with the Dodgers and Giants.

In the meantime, sit back and watch the ball sail out of sight at a record pace. It’ll be wound a little tighter next year.