This Chicken-Little Act Doesn’t Add Up

The sky is falling, executives of NHL clubs cry as their payrolls soar and two dozen restricted free agents sit at home.

But instead of blaming the labor agreement or their own wasteful spending, they have designated Bob Goodenow, head of the NHL Players Assn., as the boogeyman.

Goodenow, they say, is putting them in a financial bind by urging players to sit home and wait for big bucks, anticipating that new deals will trickle down to benefit everyone.

“Goodenow should be coach of the year, not [Colorado’s] Marc Crawford,” Mighty Duck Coach Pierre Page said.

Philadelphia Flyer Chairman Ed Snider, whose payroll tops $40 million, also sees Goodenow’s fingerprints on the holdouts.

“Somehow or another, the players’ association has convinced agents and players that there is an endless pot of gold,” Snider said. “It’s sad. Really sad.”

Conspiracy theories are fine for Kennedy assassination buffs and fans of “The X Files,” but while players and agents may take cues from the NHLPA, it’s difficult to believe they take direct orders. Goodenow denied issuing any such directives.

“We provide the guys with the information, and players and agents conduct the negotiations,” he said Monday. “Guys do their own thing.”

In essence, what Sergei Fedorov, Paul Kariya, Alexander Mogilny and others are doing isn’t based on principle. They’re looking at principal.

They saw John Spano pay $165 million for the New York Islanders and four other groups bid $195 million for the same franchise a few months later, when Spano proved a fraud.

They saw expansion applicants beg to join the NHL at $80 million each.

They saw Snider’s pot of gold spill out $16.5 million for five years for restricted free agent Chris Gratton, including a $9-million signing bonus, and the supposedly cash-poor Colorado Avalanche match the New York Rangers’ $21-million offer sheet for Joe Sakic.

They saw the Rangers rewrite and extend Wayne Gretzky’s contract, which pushed the club’s payroll to $45 million.

They see NHL marketing and merchandising booming.

They simply want their cut. It’s the American way.

“Every time I hear that some evil, Machiavellian conspiracy is to blame, I laugh,” said Neil Abbott, an agent in Boston. “Economics still drive the game. The theory that there’s some all-powerful person in the background pulling strings doesn’t work in real life. I reject the idea completely that there’s some master plan.

“I don’t see Armageddon staring us in the face. I see a huge cash infusion coming in with expansion and TV revenues. . . . Why do people line up to buy franchises? No smart businessman would want to buy something that’s going to lose millions of dollars a year.

“Groups from Houston are waiting to buy the Edmonton Oilers. Why is Ted Turner buying a franchise for Atlanta? The economics are there. It’s market-driven and if the dollars aren’t there, it will stop.”

Mike Gillis, a former player turned agent, also debunked conspiracy theories.

“I don’t think anybody in their right mind, with the type of dollars that are on the table, is eager to sit out because of principles,” Gillis said. “Bob Goodenow has never suggested to me a course of action with respect to a particular player, and I don’t think he ever would.

“These teams really haven’t changed the way they’ve operated the last 30 years. Historically, owners have liked to place blame elsewhere, and now they’re putting it on greedy players. Talent is talent and talent gets paid. I would look to amending ways to do business.”

With total free agency nearly impossible until a player is 31, and restricted free agency so confining, withholding their services is the players’ big bargaining chip. As the stakes rise, so will the number of absences.

“This is the system the owners wanted,” Abbott said. “It encourages holdouts. Each party has tools. This forces teams to make choices and make them early. They can say, ‘We don’t want to let you get to the market,’ and you listen. If a team plays hardball, they invite what they get. If you let events dictate to you, you’re going to be in trouble. Ultimately, you make your decision based on what’s best for you.”

DUCKING THE ISSUE

Having guided Jeremy Roenick through a holdout last year before getting a five-year, $20-million deal in Phoenix, Abbott has a sense of what the Mighty Ducks and Kariya are going through. Based on his experience--but acknowledging he’s unfamiliar with the talks--Abbott guessed their dispute will end within 10 days, or once the season gets rolling.

“They’ll be talking again soon,” he predicted. “We missed a week and it became a situation of, ‘Let’s talk and get serious.’ It doesn’t get serious until the point where both sides say, ‘Hey, we’re both losing.’ ”

NHL GLOBETROTTERS

Artistically, the NHL’s visit to Japan was less than a rousing success because poor ice undermined the quality of play during the Ducks’ games against the Vancouver Canucks. But from a marketing perspective--which counts for a lot around NHL headquarters--it was a bonanza, judging by the number of jerseys and Wildwing dolls in the stands.

With that in mind, look for the NHL to make a push in Europe next season with games in Germany, Sweden or Switzerland.

“We know there’s a huge market in Europe,” Vancouver center Mark Messier said. “We saw that during [Wayne Gretzky’s] tour during the lockout, It’s only a matter of time before the game goes global, perhaps as far as interlocking schedules with European leagues.”

CHILD’S PLAY

One reason the Ducks cited for firing Ron Wilson was that he didn’t play the youngsters enough, which not only overlooked his use of Dan Trebil, Darren Van Impe and Sean Pronger but ignored the possibility that management didn’t give him many talented kids to play.

Which makes it so amusing that Wilson, now coach of the Washington Capitals, is using three young European forwards extensively--and getting results. Washington has a 3-0 record.

Czech-born right wing Jaroslav Svejkovsky, the 17th draft pick in 1996, is being mentioned as a rookie-of-the-year candidate and has played on the top line with Joe Juneau and Adam Oates. He scored a goal in the Capitals’ opener, which was played on his 21st birthday. Left wing Richard Zednik of Slovakia, 21 and the 249th pick in 1994, has three goals playing alongside 19-year-old center Jan Bulis, who left the Czech Republic to play in the Canadian juniors.

So who’s kidding whom?

SLAP SHOTS

Saturday will be the 25th anniversary of the first World Hockey Assn. game, and every NHL player should honor the renegade league’s memory. Competition for players boosted salaries, forced the NHL to reduce the draft age to 18 and opened the door for European players to establish themselves here.

The leagues merged in 1979, the NHL absorbing Hartford, Edmonton, Quebec and Winnipeg. Three WHA alumni remain active: Messier, Gretzky and Mike Gartner.

Detroit’s Larry Murphy became the third-highest scoring defenseman in NHL history when a three-point game against Edmonton catapulted him past Denis Potvin and gave him 1,054 points. Paul Coffey leads with 1,444, followed by Ray Bourque at 1,363.

Tests showed ailing Boston goalie Jim Carey has migraine headaches, which are being treated with medication. No truth to the notion his defense added to those headaches. . . . Joe Thornton, the top pick in the June draft, is expected to resume contact drills with the Boston Bruins today after breaking his arm in an exhibition game.

New Jersey right wing Bill Guerin, an unsigned restricted free agent, asked to be traded but the Devils are unlikely to move him. . . . With a goal in each of his first two games, Phoenix defenseman Teppo Numinen matched his total for 82 games last season.

Although Ottawa Senator holdout Daniel Alfredsson reportedly is interested in playing for Long Beach of the International Hockey League until he gets a new deal, the Ice Dogs aren’t biting. They don’t want to anger anyone in the NHL or jeopardize their new affiliation with the Kings.

St. Louis center Pierre Turgeon had surgery on his broken right wrist after being slashed Saturday by Dallas’ Guy Carbonneau. He could be out six weeks.

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THE TIMES’ RANKINGS Top to Bottom

CAPSULES AND RANKINGS

Team (Record): Comment

1. Washington (3-0-0): Wow, Capitals can score goals.

2. Detroit (2-0-0): Balanced scoring and good defense.

3. Colorado (2-0-1): Roy stands tall in goal.

4. Montreal (1-0-1): Recchi-Koivu-Corson line produces.

5. N.Y. Islanders (1-0-1): Can they keep it up?

6. St. Louis (2-1-0): Good victories over Phoenix, Dallas.

7. Philadelphia (2-1-0): Power play must get going.

8. Phoenix (2-1-0): Rare tight win at Philly.

9. Ottawa (1-1-1): Could use more scoring punch.

10. Pittsburgh (1-1-1): Still not used to playing defense.

11. Tampa Bay (1-1-1): Sometimes Lightning does it with mirrors.

12. Buffalo (1-1-1): Hasek still working his magic.

13. Mighty Ducks (1-1-0): Team Teemu so-so in Japan.

14. Vancouver (1-1-0): Bure looks lively again.

15. San Jose (1-1-0): Had 19 disadvantages in 2 games.

16. Florida (1-1-0): Gagner’s hat trick a boost.

17. Kings (0-1-2): Can’t keep falling behind early.

18. New Jersey (1-1-0): Defense hasn’t meshed.

19. Boston (1-1-0): Defense, goaltending iffy.

20. Dallas (0-1-1): Two of three goals were power plays.

21. Edmonton (1-2-0): Crushed by Detroit, Colorado.

22. N.Y. Rangers (0-0-2): Had to rally in each tie.

23. Chicago (0-2-0): Defense, power play must awaken.

24. Calgary (0-2-0): One goal a game won’t cut it.

25. Toronto (0-2-2): Hello, offense?

26. Carolina (0-3-0): New home, same old story.

GAME OF THE WEEK

DALLAS AT DETROIT

* When--Wednesday. Time--4:30 p.m. TV--ESPN2.

* Storyline--The Red Wings will raise their Stanley Cup banner in their opener at Joe Louis Arena. They’re off to a good start with impressive victories at Calgary and Edmonton, outscoring the Flames and Oilers, 11-3. Goalie Chris Osgood, given the starting job after Mike Vernon was traded to San Jose, surpassed 100 victories before his 25th birthday, precocious for a goalie. The Stars have started slowly with a tie at Colorado and a surprising loss to St. Louis at home Saturday. They miss holdout defenseman Derian Hatcher.

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Caste System

Is financial doom looming for NHL teams or are players merely taking advantage of the game’s prosperity? Whichever, it’s clear no one in the NHL will starve this season. Here are the highest- and lowest-paid players as of Sept. 23, listed by position by category:

FORWARDS

Highest

Joe Sakic, Colorado: $17 million

Chris Gratton, Phila.: $10 million

*Mario Lemieux, Pitt.: $7,071,420

Lowest

Jeff Christian, Phoenix: $145,000

Paul Healey, Phila.: $190,000

Three players tied: $225,000

DEFENSEMEN

Highest

Scott Stevens, N.J.: $4,312,500

Chris Chelios, Chi.: $3,709,900

Al MacInnis, St. Louis: $3,500,000

Lowest

Jason Widmer, San Jose: $225,000

Ricard Persson, St. Louis: $225,000

Matt Martin, Toronto: $235,000

Eric Cairns, N.Y. Rangers: $235,000

Three players tied: $250,000

GOALIES

Highest

Patrick Roy, Colo.: $4,463,260

Dominik Hasek, Buf.: $4 million

Lowest

Michael O’Neill, Wash.: $275,000

Tomas Vokoun, Montreal: $275,000

Derek Wilkinson, T. Bay: $300,000

Michael Bales, Buffalo: $300,000

Mike Richter, N.Y. Rangers: $3.9 mil.

Jose Theodore, Montreal: $325,000

* Lemieux retired but his salary was guaranteed

Source: NHL Players Assn.