Poll With October Start Could Stop Rush to Judgment

A few words about preseason polls:

Two words, actually: “They” and “stink.”

With the Pacific 10 and Big Ten set to join the super alliance next season, the chance of matching No. 1 and No. 2 in a semi-legitimate title game becomes a virtual lock.

Yet, there remains a fundamental flaw in the system: Why should the national championship game potentially be determined by preseason polls conducted in August before any of the teams have played?

Was it North Carolina’s fault last season writers and coaches didn’t know how good the Tar Heels were and did not rank them in their preseason top 25 polls?

North Carolina ended up 10-2 and finished No. 10 but literally had to claw up the poll ladder while more familiar powers enjoyed the luxury of their customary top-10 preseason positions.

“Most of the time preseason ratings are based on tradition,” North Carolina Coach Mack Brown complains. “It’s last year’s success, or some friend who says ‘That team’s going to be really, really, good.’ ”

Was it Arizona State’s fault last year no one knew it was a potential national championship team? Bruce Snyder’s school started the season ranked No. 20 in the Associated Press writers’ poll and unranked in the coaches’. It took a stunning defeat of Nebraska to get the voters’ attention, vaulting the Sun Devils from 17th to sixth in the AP poll.

Good thing Arizona State scheduled Nebraska. Despite wins over Washington, USC and Stanford, it’s difficult to imagine the Sun Devils otherwise being in position to play for the national title.

“If you start low, you have to pray you play a Nebraska, a Miami,” Snyder says. “We could have gone 11-0 without Nebraska and could have not been in the top 10.”

There is a touch of irony to Penn State being ranked No. 1 in this year’s preseason AP poll for the first time in school history.

Although Penn State has won two national titles under Joe Paterno, in 1982 and 1986, the Nittany Lions had undefeated seasons in 1968, 1969, 1973 and 1994 and did not win national crowns.

Which means, apparently, that Paterno might have four more rings if only the AP had voted his team No. 1 in the preseason poll in each of those seasons.

Is this any way to run a national title program, where so much money and honor is at stake?

“I think preseason polls should not be an issue,” Brown says. “I think the polls should start in October. Then you’ll know who the best teams are based on the start of the season. I think it’s been really unfair. There’s no way a writer on the East Coast can determine how good UCLA or USC are going to be.”

Snyder agrees: “I do believe it’s more legitimate to put a ban on all polls until Oct. 1.”

With that in mind, the Football Writers Assn. of America is trying to level the playing field somewhat this season with its poll, which makes its debut Oct. 5.

The format combines the current AP writers’ and ESPN/USA Today coaches’ poll with a computer component designed by 1970 MIT mathematics graduate Jeff Sagarin.

The computer rankings will take into account such factors as strength of schedule and will give no weight to point differentials, meaning Nebraska does not get extra credit for clobbering Akron.

The new poll also will not be influenced by history of the teams or conferences.

Unlike college basketball rankings, which are meaningless because a national playoff ultimately determines a champion, college football polls play a critical element in pairing the top teams in alliance bowls that pay more than $8 million per participating team.

The writers’ association, a nonprofit organization comprising more than 800 writers and university sports information directors, is on the right track here.

The super alliance has said it will take a serious look at the new poll and has not ruled out using it next year in the new title-game format.

Of course, no poll replaces a playoff system. Even a poll that kicks off in October does not fully account for schools loading up on patsies in September.

But the football writers’ experiment is a start.

More important, it’s a start that doesn’t start in August.

HAWAII ONE-O

What, no telegram?

“No,” Hawaii Coach Fred vonAppen said. “I haven’t heard anything from him.”

“Him” is Hawaii Gov. Ben Cayetano, who found time during his state’s economic crisis last week to rip VonAppen for the coach’s well-worn public complaints regarding the lack of financial support for the football program.

The spat began last fall when Cayetano reportedly became angered at VonAppen for not attending a private gala at the governor’s house after Cayetano raised $450,000 for the football program.

The tiff made headlines again last week when VonAppen reiterated his complaints in the local press.

Cayetano responded by saying he would not seek further donations for Hawaii football this season.

Among VonAppen’s beefs is that Hawaii’s high cost of living has made it difficult to pay assistant coaches enough to live on the islands.

Ulima Afoa, the team’s only Hawaiian-born assistant, left the team in June to take a job with conference rival San Diego State.

Cayetano thinks VonAppen should keep his mouth shut and coach. “I don’t think he’s inspired the team to do anything,” Cayetano was quoted saying of VonAppen.

Ballgame? Oh, yeah, there was a ballgame.

In Hawaii’s opener, VonAppen’s underfunded bunch whipped Minnesota, 17-3, in Honolulu last Saturday night.

The Rainbow Warriors, 2-10 in 1996, can equal last season’s victory total with a win over Cal State Northridge this week.

VonAppen, for now, has the last word.

“He’s got a lot more important things to do than to worry about me,” he said of Cayetano. “If he doesn’t like my style, he won’t be the first, or the last. I’m totally consumed with trying to get this job dispatched. I assume he’s in a similar strait with the economy being the way it is.”

Cayetano’s reaction to Hawaii’s big win?

“I know he was genuinely pleased we won the game,” VonAppen said. “I know he wasn’t at the game.”

NEXT TIME, BRING A BULLHORN

Unlike UCLA’s Bob Toledo, at least Syracuse Coach Paul Pasqualoni tried to call time out at his team’s moment of truth last Saturday.

Pasqualoni claims North Carolina State’s decision to go for two instead of kicking a score-tying extra point after the first overtime was not a surprise.

He said he had the right defense in place and only wanted to call time to settle his players.

But no one saw Pasqualoni’s frantic sideline pleas, the two-point attempt worked, and North Carolina State pulled off a major early-season upset, 32-31.

“I considered running out to the hash mark or midfield, but I thought I might get a penalty,” Pasqualoni said. “I don’t know what else you can do, except take the penalty, know what I mean?”

Yes.

Next time, coach, run out on the field and take the penalty. What’s a half-the-distance-to-the-goal-line infraction when you have the right defense in place?

COAST TO COAST

First-year Kentucky Coach Hal Mumme may have been elected mayor of Lexington by the time you read this. Implementing a “fastbreak” offense, Kentucky blitzed Louisville in its opener, 38-24, with sophomore quarterback Tim Couch passing for four touchdowns. Number of touchdown passes the Kentucky offense produced in all of 1996: seven.

Ho-hum: With his win over Akron, Nebraska Coach Tom Osborne ran his record to 184-12 against unranked opponents. The last unranked foe to beat the Cornhuskers was . . . Texas, in last year’s Big 12 title game.

Which quarterback took more of a gamble coming back for his senior season, Peyton Manning or Ron Powlus? Tennessee’s Manning took out a $7-million insurance policy to protect himself from injury. Powlus of Notre Dame, also a pro prospect, has no such plan. “We looked into it, somewhat,” Powlus said. “It just wasn’t something we wanted to do.”

Despite losing, 42-31, Marshall played West Virginia tough enough to demand a rematch, although the state might not be able to handle it. “They’d been counting it down from 70 days,” West Virginia Coach Don Nehlen said of last Saturday’s battle. “It was enough to drive a guy crazy. I’m glad it’s over.”

Oops: ESPN ran a nice feature Friday night on Arizona State 6-foot-8 junior quarterback Steve Campbell taking over for Jake Plummer. Problem? Snyder had named redshirt Ryan Kealy the starter the previous Saturday.

After going 5-0 in bowl games last year, the Southeastern Conference went 8-0 in opening games last weekend. Only one school, Florida, seems out of sync. The Gators rank last in total offense in this week’s SEC stats. “First time we’ve ever been ranked there,” Coach Steve Spurrier said.

Northwestern star receiver D’Wayne Bates underwent surgery Monday to repair a fractured fibula and ligament tear he suffered to his right ankle in the Wildcats’ Aug. 23 victory over Oklahoma. Coach Gary Barnett said he expects Bates to use a medical redshirt and return next year for his final year of eligibility. Bates’ replacement is senior John Burden, who has six receptions in his career.

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INFOSTAT

No. 1 Letdown

History does not favor Penn State. A look at where the AP preseason No. 1 team finished in the final poll:

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YEAR--SCHOOL RANK 1980--Ohio State 15th 1981--Michigan 12th 1982--Pittsburgh 10th 1983--Nebraska 2nd 1984--Auburn 14th 1985--Oklahoma 1st 1986--Oklahoma 3rd 1987--Oklahoma 3rd 1988--Florida St. 3rd 1989--Michigan 7th 1990--Miami 3rd 1991--Florida St. 4th 1992--Miami 3rd 1993--Florida St. 1st 1994--Florida 7th 1995--Florida St. 4th 1996--Nebraska 6th

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Researched by HOUSTON MITCHELL / Los Angeles Times