PICK OR PASS?

If Randy Moss were a stock, his volatility rating would be higher than his vertical jump. The potential reward in selecting Moss in the April 18-19 draft is enormous, but so is the risk.

Never did the risk look greater than recently, when the Marshall wide receiver passed up a precious opportunity to erase doubts, showcase his phenomenal athleticism and sell himself at the NFL’s scouting combine.

He had been scheduled to participate, but canceled his trip to Indianapolis the day the event began because, according to his agent, an abscessed wisdom tooth flared up and forced him to have six teeth removed.

If almost any other player had been a last-minute no-show, it wouldn’t have been a big deal.

But this was the talk of the combine because teams had more questions about Moss than any other player in the draft. And now they have even more.

Moss has made a series of bad decisions in his life. He spent 30 days in jail for battery. He was arrested for allegedly choking a girlfriend. He tested positive for marijuana once, and was in the same car with a friend who was arrested for possession another time.

Given that history, Moss’ begging out of the combine leaves a lot of NFL executives wondering if he is trying to hide something. All players are tested for drugs at the combine.

“You create suspicions and doubts as to why,” Saints Coach Mike Ditka says of Moss’ absence. “I think he should have come--but that’s his business. He’s a big boy.”

It’s possible Moss had nothing to hide. But at the very least, he should have flown to Indianapolis and taken the drug test, just to prove he had nothing to hide.

Dependability is the overriding concern with Moss. One coach predicts the combine episode will lead to Moss’ falling out of the first round of the draft. Utah receiver Kevin Dyson, whose skills pale by comparison, says he was told at the combine he had moved ahead of Moss.

“He had those character problems anyway that people were worried about,” Dyson says. “The one thing he probably should do is come (to the combine) and let them know he’s not going to be a problem.”

Ditka’s Saints are in need of a receiver and probably will be in position to take Moss with the seventh pick in the first round. But at the combine Ditka indicated he has lost interest in Moss. Other teams that would have considered selecting him--including the Raiders (picking fourth), Bears (fifth), Cowboys (eighth) and Ravens (10th)--also might find it harder to pull the Moss trigger now. More than a couple front office men say they wouldn’t take Moss in the top 10 picks because they fear the money that goes with being a top 10 pick would leave Moss too satisfied.

Moss is the most intriguing player in the draft because he has the potential to be the best pick . . . and the worst. That doesn’t apply to any other player.

The array of opinions on Moss’ future is vast. One pro personnel director from an AFC team said Moss is the most talented player in the draft, and an NFC general manager says no one in the draft has more talent. Yet a number of teams already have dismissed the possibility of selecting him at any point in the first round. One pro personnel director from an NFC team says he wouldn’t take Moss in the top 10 even if Moss’ character wasn’t an issue.

There also are on-the-field questions. Some scouts question Moss’ toughness, saying he short-arms passes, drops balls in traffic, doesn’t go over the middle and dogs it when he isn’t getting the ball. Most personnel evaluators are in agreement that he hasn’t played hard, and that he has played down to his level of competition in Division 1A. One scout says he watched Moss “quit and walk off the field” against Miami of Ohio because “a midget corner who couldn’t run or cover was pressing him.” Moss has responded to that accusation by saying that he had an ankle injury.

Still, no team can dismiss Moss’ talent. Jeff Small, the track coach at Marshall, says Moss is a better runner than Michael Johnson and Carl Lewis. He measures 6-foot-4, and he has more body control and coordination than Herman Moore. In two seasons at Marshall, Moss scored 53 touchdowns despite being the focus of every defense. Florida State Coach Bobby Bowden says Moss is as good an athlete as Deion Sanders, only bigger.

St. Louis’ ill-fated experience with Lawrence Phillips may cost Moss some money. The Rams were burned by taking Phillips, another character risk, with the sixth pick of the 1996 draft. Rightly or wrongly, personnel men are comparing Moss to Phillips. They also could compare him to Warren Sapp, who also was considered a character risk but has turned out to be a Pro Bowl performer after the Buccaneers chose him with the 12th pick in the 1995 draft.

Pick or pass on Randy Moss? Be thankful the choice is not yours.