Planting Seeds of NCAA Surprise

Would you recognize Cinderella before the ball?

Somewhere, this season’s Valparaiso is preparing for a run.

Some little-noticed team will end up in the NCAA tournament’s Sweet 16, much the way Valparaiso, Rhode Island and Washington did last season.

Who will be a Richmond, which needed a buzzer-beater to make the final of its conference tournament, then became the 14th-seeded team that upset South Carolina in the first round?

Who will be an Iona, scaring the shorts off Syracuse in the first round before a three-pointer with 1.2 seconds left sent the Gaels home?

Who will put the madness in March?

Here are a few candidates who might pull an upset or make a little noise--though take note: Some of them might have to win their conference tournaments to make the field:

College of Charleston (20-2)--The Cougars are pedigreed upset threats, best remembered for upsetting Maryland in the first round and then giving Arizona a scare in the second in 1997, the year the Wildcats won the national championship. But there’s a small problem this year: Charleston is in the top 25, breaking in at No. 22 this week for only its second appearance in school history. Savvy Coach John Kresse, in his 20th year at the school, already guided Charleston to a memorable upset of North Carolina this season at Charlotte Coliseum--the same arena where the Cougars might play their first-round game in the East Regional.

Gonzaga (18-4)--The Zags make an average of 8 1/2 three-point shots a game and have four starters who shoot the three. The defense isn’t much, but Gonzaga beat Washington despite a 28-point game by Todd MacCulloch and lost to Texas Christian by only three even though Lee Nailon scored 44. They also threatened to upset Kansas despite a 36% shooting night. Star guard Matt Santangelo hasn’t even been the leading scorer, a role that has fallen to Richie Frahm. Pepperdine seemed like a West Coast Conference challenger to Gonzaga--until the Zags’ 83-52 victory last month. The rematch is in Malibu Feb. 19.

Miami (Ohio) (16-4)--The Redhawks visited the top 25 earlier this season and haven’t gotten a lot of notice since back-to-back losses to Xavier (no problem) and Wisconsin Green Bay (problem). But Miami has something only four other teams have--one of the five best players in the country. Wally Szczerbiak, a 6-foot-8, 240-pound inside-outside player, has been compared to Tom Gugliotta and was the leading scorer on a Goodwill Games team that included Duke’s Elton Brand. Bonus points: The Redhawks are third in the nation in free-throw percentage at 76.9%, so if they have an upset in the works, it probably sticks.

Rutgers (14-7)--The last team in from some major conference will make a run--a la Washington last season. It could be another Pac-10 team, or perhaps a Big Ten team, but Rutgers would make the best story. If the Scarlet Knights make the tournament--and Villanova probably moved ahead them for the last spot in the Big East with a victory over the Scarlet Knights Wednesday--it would be their first NCAA appearance in eight years. Rutgers shoots 40% from three-point range, beat Syracuse and played St. John’s close. The not-so-secret weapon: Rob Hodgson, who made 11 of 11 shots in a 31-point game against West Virginia and shoots 51% from three-point range.

Siena (18-2)--The Saints score more points than any team in the country other than Duke and Texas Christian, at 88.6 a game, and are No. 1 in free-throw percentage at 79.2%. Yes, there are losses to Marist and Niagara to go along with victories over Pepperdine and George Washington, and Siena is a little thin inside. But the Saints have one of those emotion-tugging stories. Point guard Melvin Freeny returns tonight after missing much of the last two months because he was found to have a viral form of pericarditis, an inflammation of the sac around the heart. After extensive tests by cardiologists and a couple of scares, he has been cleared to play. There’s history too: In 1989, in the first round, Siena upset a third-seeded Stanford team that had Adam Keefe and Todd Lichti.

A few others to watch: Creighton, which has beaten Iowa; Southwest Missouri State, coached by Steve Alford, and Detroit, which has limited two teams to fewer than 40 points each.

FADING NO. 1 FLIES WEST

So the shine of the No. 1-vs.-No. 4 showdown between Connecticut and Stanford on Saturday in Palo Alto dulled a bit when the hobbled Huskies lost to Syracuse and Stanford was beaten at Arizona and had a close call at California.

Is Stanford disappointed it can’t be the team to hand the Huskies their first loss?

“We would look forward to it if we could give them their 18th loss, if that were the case,” Stanford Coach Mike Montgomery said.

Connecticut Coach Jim Calhoun put the likelihood at 75% that player-of-the-year candidate Richard Hamilton will play after missing the Syracuse game because of a thigh bruise. And the Huskies got good news about center Jake Voskuhl on Wednesday. The injury to his foot is only a stress aggravation and instead of possibly being out for the season it’s conceivable he’ll play against Stanford.

It’s still an opportunity for Stanford, especially with some of Connecticut’s other starters slowed by nagging injuries--and none of them familiar with the springy floor of Maples Pavilion.

TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES

Steve Lavin has dutifully repeated his words of contrition for his two-technical outburst and ejection in UCLA’s loss to Washington.

There’s one nagging thing: If Lavin lost it that badly, that’s a little scary.

But worse, if it was a calculated attempt to draw attention to UCLA’s objections to Terry Christman’s officiating, it was poor math: UCLA had a lot better chance to come back before giving Washington four extra free throws with 4 1/2 minutes left.

Here’s a suggestion for the Bruins’ foul trouble: Work on the problems at their own free-throw line.

UCLA is shooting 59.4%--last in the Pacific 10--hardly taking advantage of the opportunities it gets.

HE’S TERRY-ING UP THE LEAGUE

The engraver can go ahead and get started.

Arizona’s Jason Terry is the Pac-10 player of the year, barring a dramatic reversal.

Terry, who played the role he was asked to as a sixth man behind Mike Bibby and Miles Simon, is getting plenty of glory now.

He was unguardable in the upset of Stanford, scoring 29 points and making the game-winning shot with three seconds left.

Terry leads the league in scoring (21.4), assists (5.44) and free-throw percentage (87.6%) and is second to Davis in steals with 2.56 a game.

Arizona Coach Lute Olson has put him in the company of such Wildcat guards as Khalid Reeves, Steve Kerr, Damon Stoudamire and Bibby.

“The great thing about Jason Terry is he’s a team player first,” Olson said. “He’s been that way since he got here, and he’s still that way. He’s been willing to accept whatever role he needed to for our team to do well. On our national championship team, he was good enough to be a starter, but we were in a situation where we needed someone to come off the bench, and he was willing to do it.

“This year, he’s in a totally different role, with three freshmen in the lineup with him.

“Jason Terry is not someone into his individual stats. He’s into winning.”

THE PITS

New Mexico might actually be in danger of missing the NCAA tournament despite its No. 17 ranking if it doesn’t win the Western Athletic Conference tournament. How? The Lobos’ Ratings Percentage Index rank is No. 104 because of a weak schedule, and their recent spiral was underscored by a stunning 57-39 demolition by Utah at the Pit. That was the Lobos’ lowest scoring total at home since a 61-37 loss to San Diego State in 1983.